Ioke

[Coby Beck]

I don't go to sci.environment anymore, which is where I used to get the
latest on hurricanes. Now I am stuck with tv news which doesn't care unless
Florida is being ripped apart or NOLA is under water.

Thus, I was surprised to see via Chris Mooney's blog that there is a
Category 5 hurricane called Ioke. He says that according to wikipedia "It
is the first tropical storm to form in the Central Pacific since
2002...Overnight between August 24 and August 25, Ioke strengthened into a
Category 5 storm, the first storm with a name from the Central Pacific list
to reach that intensity."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Ioke

Seems like another "first". Is it significant?

Coby

[Michael Tobis]

Hurricanes may be climatologically significant in their own right,
independent of whether they affect populated areas directly, (they do
move energy around) so, maybe.

However, one swallow doesn't make a summer and all the usual caveats, etc.

mt

[Eli Rabett]

This is more like a roc than a swallow. However, using first order
linear reasoning, since tropical storms are to first order heat engines
(see the very nice article by Kerry Emanuel in Physics Today
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-59/iss-8/p74.html ) a large hurricane
will have a very strong cooling effect on the sea surface temperature
and thus it would be unlikely that another large storm could follow
along the same path for some time. In that case a mars size hurricane
could be the whole summer.

[Coby Beck]

"Eli Rabett" <EliRab...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1156633936....@75g2000cwc.googlegroups.com...

"IOKE WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH SEVERAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OVER THE
COMING DAYS...RESULTING IN SHORT TERM STRENGTH FLUCTUATIONS. HOWEVER...MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IOKE AT OR NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS.
NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE RATHER STEADY BUT...AS AN OUTLIER...GFDL WANTS TO
STRENGTHEN IOKE TO 170 KT AT 96 HOURS. INCREASING SST AND LOW SHEAR ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL...AT THE VERY LEAST...GREATLY SLOW IOKE/S DECAY AT
HIGHER LATITUDES. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IOKE COULD ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR LONGEVITY AS A
CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM."

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/data/HFO/TCDCP2

Perhaps a very interesting record in the works. Might this also make it a
record setter for energy dissipation?
This is Ioke's storm tracking page for the moment:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/IOKE.php

but as it is crossing the dateline it apparently falls out of NOAA's area of
responsibility. Chris Mooney wonders if, if it reaches it highest projected
wind speeds, it should be Category 6.
http://scienceblogs.com/intersection/2006/08/ernesto_strengthening_a_possib.
php

I do recall some mention of Category 6 before, is that a real discussion?

Coby

[Eli Rabett]

Here are some satellite images of ioke

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/west/latest_westirhem.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float7.html

[Coby Beck]

"Eli Rabett" <EliRab...@yahoo.com> wrote in message

news:<1156788582....@b28g2000cwb.googlegroups.com>...

>
> Here are some satellite images of ioke
>
> http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/west/latest_westirhem.jpg
> http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float7.html

Looks pretty darn big!

Coby

[James Annan]

Coby Beck wrote:

And heading straight for Tokyo...it is just about starting to register
on the forecasts...

James

[Eli Rabett]

The've moved on to Kristy, but here is beautiful shot of Ioke

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/vis-l.jpg

[Coby Beck]

"James Annan" <james...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:<44F52225...@gmail.com>...

Check this:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_
id=13822

Wake Island in the path of Ioke, David vs Goliath??

Coby

[Eli Rabett]

Here are some stunning images of current tropical cyclones

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/

[Michael Tobis]

According to Wikipedia

On August 28, 2006, the United States Air Force evacuated all 188
residents as category 5 Super Typhoon Ioke headed toward Wake. By late
on August 31, the southwestern eyewall of the storm passed over the
island, with winds well over 100 mph driving a storm surge and waves
directly into the lagoon.

Wikipedia also refers to this news article:

http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-08-31-voa11.cfm

mt

[Coby Beck]

"Michael Tobis" <mto...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:<c3aa55550609020835r1c3...@mail.gmail.com>...

Some great graphical information here:
http://ssmi.com/cyclone/cyclone.html?year=2006&storm=ioke&ob=latest

Notice the dramatic effect Ioke had on the SST in its wake.

Coby