economic conditions improving

[Dave Backus]

As we come out of recessions, it's common to see output start to rise
a few months before employment. We seem to see that now, which is
good news on the job front. Yesterday's employment report (the survey
of firms that generates the "nonfarm payroll" employment number)
showed that the number of jobs has stopped falling, which is good news
given the recent past. GDP is quarterly, so it's harder to track
short-term movements, but our best guess is that it started to rise
again in Aug or Sep.

Here's a more careful look at the data courtesy of Menzie Chinn at
Econbrowser:
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/12/the_employment_2.html