Nanoparticles and SRM

[Wil Burns]

FYI, from Environmental Research Web, a summary of David Keith's new piece in PNAS ( for the PNAS piece, see: http://www.pnas.org/content/107/38/16428). wil

Geoengineering: nanoparticles could beat sulphates Particles with designer electrostatic and magnetic properties could hover over poles and away from ozone layer

http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/m/1863/207604/article/news/43837

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Dr. Wil Burns, Editor in Chief
Journal of International Wildlife Law & Policy
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[John Nissen]

Dear Wil,

I came across your email from end of September which I'd unfortunately overlooked.  I'm very interested in David Keith's idea [1], especially for the application of cooling the Arctic.  He points to this reference:

26. MacCracken MC (2009) On the possible use of geoengineering to moderate specific climate change impacts. Environ Res Lett 4:045107 [2]

In the abstract, Mike MacCracken writes:

Among the most damaging aspects of the climate that might be countered are: the warming of low-latitude oceans that observations suggest contribute to more intense tropical cyclones and coral bleaching; the amplified warming of high latitudes and the associated melting of ice that has been accelerating sea level rise and altering mid-latitude weather; and the projected reduction in the loading and cooling influence of sulfate aerosols, which has the potential to augment warming sufficient to trigger methane and carbon feedbacks.

However, the most immediate, glaring, danger is from accelerated warming in the Arctic as sea ice retreats, threatening discharge of vast quantities of methane from permafrost.  Even if only 10% of carbon were released as methane over a twenty year period, it would exacerbate global warming by a factor of at least 40 times, by simple calculation [3], knowing the global warming potential of methane [4] and quantities of carbon [5].  One can envisage runaway global warming producing an abrupt and catastrophic climate change which no human could survive.

This has to be stopped, and geoengineering, particularly by SRM, appears to be the only possible means.  It is about time that the scientific community woke up to this realisation, and worked towards readiness for full-scale deployment of several mutually supportive geoengineering techniques within two years (i.e. ready for spring 2013) if that is conceivably possible.  Even that could be too late, but there is no alternative but to do our damnedest.

Best wishes,

John

[1] http://www.pnas.org/content/107/38/16428.full.pdf+html

[2] http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/4/4/045107/fulltext

[3] Current anthropogenic global warming arises from forcing equivalent to the excess of 100 ppm out of 290 ppm atmospheric CO2.  (Other forcings balance out approximately, e.g. considering the negative forcing of tropospheric sulphate aerosol [6]).  Global warming potential of methane is 72 over 20 years [4].  Carbon stored in permafrost is estimated as about twice that in atmosphere [5], so 10% would add 58 ppm of greenhouse gas, giving a multiplication factor on current global warming of 72*58 /100, which is over 40.

[4] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential

[5] http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/Copenhagen/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_LOW.pdf
See page 21:

The total amount of carbon stored in permafrost has been estimated to be around 1672 Gt (1 Gt = 109 tons), of which ~277 Gt are contained in peatlands (Schuur et al. 2008; Tarnocai et al. 2009).  This represents about twice the amount of carbon contained in the atmosphere.

[6] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing

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