COSMIC-RAY-DRIVEN REACTION AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF HALOGENATED MOLECULES: CULPRITS FOR ATMOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE : International Journal of Modern Physics B: Vol. 0, No. 0 (World Scientific)

[Andrew Lockley]

Poster's note : if this is real, it will create quite a fuss. Some humble pie will be eaten, but I'm not sure by whom.

http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217979213500732

Q.-B. LU, Int. J. Mod. Phys. B DOI: 10.1142/S0217979213500732

COSMIC-RAY-DRIVEN REACTION AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF HALOGENATED MOLECULES: CULPRITS FOR ATMOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Q.-B. LUDepartment of Physics and Astronomy and Departments of Biology and Chemistry, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, CanadaReceived: 15 October 2012Revised: 27 February 2013Accepted: 12 March 2013Published: 30 May 2013This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogen-containing molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs) on atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory forO3 depletion and the warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions to these phenomena are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets of quantities, including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl4 and HCFCs), CO2, total O3, lower stratospheric temperatures and global surface temperatures. For O3 depletion, it is shown that an analytical equation derived from the CRE theory reproduces well 11-year cyclic variations of both polar O3 loss and stratospheric cooling, and new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O3 and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients ≥ 0.92. After the removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20~25% of the Antarctic O3 hole is found, while no recovery of O3 loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the correctness and dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO2 concentration during 1850–1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96–0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases during 1970–2012. Furthermore, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone result in the global surface temperature rise of ~0.6°C in 1970–2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5~7 decades. It is also expected that the global sea level will continue to rise in coming 1~2 decades until the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar O3hole recovery; after that, both will drop concurrently. All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

Keywords: Cosmic rays; chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs); ozone depletion; ozone hole; global warming; global cooling

[Dr. Adrian Tuck]

This theory of cosmic rays causing the ozone hole was comprehensively debunked 11 years ago, see below.

1.

Title: Comment on "Effects of cosmic rays on atmospheric chlorofluorocarbon dissociation and ozone depletion" Author(s): Harris, NRP; Farman, JC; Fahey, DW Source: PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS  Volume: 89   Issue: 21     Article Number: 219801   DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.219801   Published: NOV 18 2002

Adrian Tuck

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'ATMOSPHERIC TURBULENCE: A Molecular Dynamics Perspective'.

Oxford University Press, 2008. ISBN 978-0-19-923653-4.

http://www.oup.com/uk/catalogue/?ci=9780199236534

 

***************************************************

[Russell Seitz]

Congratulations to LU on finding a journal with an impact factor so proportionate to his paper's merits :  International Journal of Modern Physics B: Vol. 0, No. 0  92013)

[eugg...@comcast.net]

With all due respect Dr. Tuck, the earlier cosmic ray hypothesis was not a Theory but a hypothesis and if comprehensively debunked who will voucher for the validity of the debunking and on what basis? is not a recent hypothesis to be reviewed and also debunked comprehensively or perhaps elevated to Theory by virtue of credible experiments? Have we forgotten how science works to produce truth in the form of a Theory based on experiments that give credible confirmation of the hypothesis?

Science should not be compromised by opinion; although opinion may start the process of finding truth!

Eugene Gordon

---

From: "Dr. Adrian Tuck" <dr.adri...@sciencespectrum.co.uk>
To: "Andrew Lockley" <andrew....@gmail.com>
Cc: "geoengineering" <geoengi...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, May 30, 2013 5:06:28 PM
Subject: Re: [geo] COSMIC-RAY-DRIVEN REACTION AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF HALOGENATED MOLECULES: CULPRITS FOR ATMOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE : International Journal of Modern Physics B: Vol. 0, No. 0 (World Scientific)

[Dr. Adrian Tuck]

Dear Eugene, Thank you for the lesson in the difference between an hypothesis and a theory, of which I'm well aware. The theory of the ozone hole loss being down to halogen photochemistry modulated by heterogeneous reactions on polar stratospheric clouds is just that – a theory established for over 20 years by extensive testing against observations, something that can be established by reading the series of WMO Ozone Assessment Reports, as well as hundreds of papers in core journals such as J Geophys Res, Atmos Chem Phys, QJR Meteorol Soc and J Atmos Sci, not to mention Nature and Science. You should ask why this paper, given its potentially important claims, has not appeared in these journals.

Adrian Tuck

[David Lewis]

According to the University of Waterloo News:  "The peer reviewed paper published this week not only provides fundamental understanding of the ozone hole and global climate change but has superior predictive capabilities compared with the conventional sunlight driven ozone depleting and CO2 warming models".   This UW article, "Global Warming caused by CFCs, not carbon dioxide' is here.  The article contains a picture of a proud Dr. Lu.  

A version of Dr. Lu's paper is on arxiv, i.e. here.   Quoting from that paper:  "it was shown [Lu cites previous papers of his own to substantiate this] that there has been absolute saturation, i.e. no GHG effect associated with the increasing concentrations of non-halogen gases, since the 1950s".  

Because no matter how much the concentration of  trace gases in the atmosphere other than halocarbons increases in the coming decades there will be no warming of the planet as a result, and because the concentration of halocarbons in the atmosphere is declining, Dr. Lu makes this superior prediction:

    

The dean of the faculty of science at the University of Waterloo buys this.  According to UW's Waterloo News, that dean, Terry McMahon, said this: "This study underlines the importance of understanding the basic science underlying ozone depletion and global climate change".  

Indeed.    

Incidentally, Dr. Lu appears to have no interest in, and does not account for, the rising heat content of the global ocean, in this paper.

[Mike MacCracken]

Much less about misunderstanding at all about the issue of saturation, a criticism of Arrhenius that has been addressed many, many times and kicked out of science as an issue by Manabe and others in the 1960s.

Mike


On 5/31/13 1:33 PM, "David Lewis" <jrando...@gmail.com> wrote:

According to the University of Waterloo News:  "The peer reviewed paper published this week not only provides fundamental understanding of the ozone hole and global climate change but has superior predictive capabilities compared with the conventional sunlight driven ozone depleting and CO2 warming models".   This UW article, "Global Warming caused by CFCs, not carbon dioxide' is here <http://uwaterloo.ca/news/news/global-warming-caused-cfcs-not-carbon-dioxide-study-says> .  The article contains a picture of a proud Dr. Lu.  

A version of Dr. Lu's paper is on arxiv, i.e. here <http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1210/1210.6844.pdf> .   Quoting from that paper:  "it was shown [Lu cites previous papers of his own to substantiate this] that there has been absolute saturation, i.e. no GHG effect associated with the increasing concentrations of non-halogen gases, since the 1950s".  

Because no matter how much the concentration of  trace gases in the atmosphere other than halocarbons increases in the coming decades there will be no warming of the planet as a result, and because the concentration of halocarbons in the atmosphere is declining, Dr. Lu makes this superior prediction:

<http://uwaterloo.ca/news/sites/ca.news/files/styles/body-500px-wide/public/uploads/images/20130528%20-%20CFCs%20Climate%20Change1.png>