Arctic could face ice-free conditions

[John Nissen]

�The lack of summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene suggests that the
record-setting melting of Arctic sea ice over the past few years could
be an early warning of more significant changes to come.�

http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/research/trends/121010-arctic-could-face-warmer-and-ice-free-conditions,-warn-scientists.html

Key questions: Could SRM* geoengineering prevent this? Is there an
alternative? How long have we got?

John

P.S. See also decline of the carbon sinks, which might also benefit from
cooling technology:
http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/research/trends/12975-researchers-show-major-increase-in-co2-emissions.html

* Solar radiation management, e.g. by using stratospheric aerosols or
cloud brightening to reflect solar radiation back into space.

[Andrew Lockley]

That's a very interesting result for geoengineers.  My interpretation of these results is that the late application of SRM may not be able to reverse Arctic thawing and keep the methane locked up.  Considering the work of Robock http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JD011652.shtml my previous belief was that SRM geoengineering would be enough to keep the permafrost frozen and the methane locked up, no matter how bad the global temperature rise was in the medium term.  However, this new research, which considers a period with lower CO2 than today (if I'm not mistaken), suggests a level of regional warming far exceeding the global rise.  It is clearly the regional warming which unleashes the 'methane monster'.

I am very interested to know if the late application of SRM can reverse this profound regional warming.  If we can't be certain that SRM will reverse the regional warming, we may need to look at 'emergency SRM', to be deployed ASAP.

I note the outcome of the funding meeting which John sent round, and with my cursory reading it seemed that the limitations and weaknesses of the cooling powers of SRM for the Arctic needed further study.  This paper serves only to strengthen my view.

As a point of information, my further work over Xmas on methane leads me to believe my conclusion will be that there is no easy 'fire extinguisher' available in the event of runaway climate change.  All the solutions under consideration seem to require large energy inputs or engineering infrastructure, based on a qualitative analysis. 

A

2010/1/2 John Nissen <j...@cloudworld.co.uk>

“The lack of summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene suggests that the

record-setting melting of Arctic sea ice over the past few years could

be an early warning of more significant changes to come.”

http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/research/trends/121010-arctic-could-face-warmer-and-ice-free-conditions,-warn-scientists.html


Key questions: Could SRM* geoengineering prevent this? Is there an
alternative? How long have we got?

John

P.S. See also decline of the carbon sinks, which might also benefit from
cooling technology:
http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/research/trends/12975-researchers-show-major-increase-in-co2-emissions.html


* Solar radiation management, e.g. by using stratospheric aerosols or
cloud brightening to reflect solar radiation back into space.

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[Veli Albert Kallio]

The extreme rapid warmings in the past are suggestive that the sea ice cover makes a suprise retreat into oblivion much like the surprise half-way melting of 2007. As the ice probably thins further the flips appear much faster. This report draws attention to the rapid rate of coastal erosion, but this forgets that the wave penetration, sea ice split-up and lead generation is enhanced the same process. Furthermore, the wind pushes water under the ice on windward sides, on still sides water emerges from beneath ice and from the deeper ocean. So, there is intensified mixing of sea water that also erodes the sea ice.
 
As the sea ice area declines further the wave generating open sea ice area grows bigger generating waves that brake the thinned ice much easier than in the past, allowing almost infinite wave penetration under thin newly formed ice in comparison to the old and stiff multi year ice. It is just my fear now that our measurements for the United Nations General Assembly complainants can be started before loss of sea ice. If the indigenous peoples' recollections hold water that there is to be a strong coupling with the terrestrial ice being lost almost imminently after loss of marine ice cover (due to melt water accummulation on subglacial slopes of Greenland chiseling the ice off the ground by an expanding water mattress) this rapid warming will end with even more rapid cooling when the ice dome looses its footing and falls into sea.
 
In my view, despite the possibility of strong likely opposition of additionally enhancing this "Last Dryas" cooling resulting from Greenland ice sheet land containment failure, I would see geoengineering delivering its last chance to revert permafrost melting at that time (Europe's and America's agriculture being in disarray until the discharged ice melts and the resulting cold water falls to the sea floor). Agriculture failing Europe-wide, much resistance in that cold weather would mean public opposition to further enhance that severe sudden cooling which lasts until sea water re-stratifies once again.
 
I do not want to be the Devil's Advocate always telling the worst outcomes, but this is not my view but that what the World Indigenous Nations Summit put effectively forward to the United Nations General Assembly to investigate based on their ancient recollections what happened to the ice dome on the Hudson Bay that they recall of loosing its footing and suddenly starting to move down and collapse to sea. We are more or less on schedule to put the GPS monitoring in place for Melville Bay coast to see within accurracy of 0.01 metres whether there are any movement of Greenland's periphery towards sea there.
 
Until we have two measurement points in time bagged we are unable to say whether the concerns to the United Nations General Assembly some 17 years ago (after Rio de Janeiro climate change summit) will hold water or is an unwarranted fear. However, as all these new reports affirm, the melting processes and rainfall in Greenland will see massive increase in the post sea ice Arctic Ocean and ice-free North Pole. Will these things the North American indigenous history-keepers warned the United Nations General Assembly will only be seen in the future as marine ice cover melts away or is it already happening?
 
Because of the darkeness and snow, the installation work will start only with the arrival of spring when we can start inserting the markers and fly helicopters from Thule - Pituffic in the north and Ilulissat Airport from the south these equipments. Anyway, it is both sad and distressing to see these reports coming every now and then reconfirming us the growing inevitability of the North Pole becoming entirely ice-free.
 
Rgs, Albert

 

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Date: Sat, 2 Jan 2010 17:13:07 +0000
Subject: Re: [geo] Arctic could face ice-free conditions
From: andrew....@gmail.com
To: j...@cloudworld.co.uk; geoengi...@googlegroups.com

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