Migration & Global Recession

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Sep 9, 2009, 9:56:52 AM9/9/09
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The full report can be downloaded here:
http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/MPI-BBCreport-Sept09.pdf

Migration and the Global Recession is available at
http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/MPI-BBCreport-Sept09.pdf and
bbc.com/Aftershock.

Press Release
September 8, 2009
Contact:
Michelle Mittelstadt, +1 202 266-1910
mmitte...@migrationpolicy.org
Penny Crook, +44 (0)207 557 1142
penny...@bbc.co.uk

Migration Slowing as Recession Bites

WASHINGTON/LONDON — Immigrants are overwhelmingly choosing to stay put
in their adopted countries, rather than return home, despite the
impact of the economic downturn on employment, a new report by the
Migration Policy Institute for BBC World Service, published Tuesday,
reveals. Migration and the Global Recession reports that some
migration flows, particularly illegal migration, are also down as
would-be migrants are being deterred by reduced job prospects in
countries that would previously have offered them better
opportunities.

The report focuses on migration flows to and from the major migrant-
destination regions of the world, including: the United States,
European Union, Canada and Australia; as well as movement in major
migration corridors: the United States-Mexico; United Kingdom-Eastern
Europe; Spain-Romania and Spain-Morocco; and Gulf State flows from
Bangladesh, India, Nepal and the Philippines.

The report offers three top-line findings:

* The recession has dampened the movement of economic migrants to
the major immigrant-receiving regions of the world. And, counter to
some widely held public perceptions, immigrants overwhelmingly are
choosing to stay put in their adopted countries rather than return
home despite higher unemployment and lack of jobs.
* While the overall picture is one of sharp remittance decline,
some regions are experiencing remittance increases or are holding
steady. Though remittances have dropped globally amid the downturn,
they remain an important source of income for immigrant-sending
countries as other financial streams, including export revenue and
other forms of foreign private investment, have proven much more
volatile.
* The recession has hit migrants and their financial well-being
particularly hard, with repercussions not only for the migrants
themselves and their households but for immigrant-sending and
receiving countries alike.

Other specific findings revealed in the report include:

* Of the 1.4 million Eastern European workers who came to the
United Kingdom between May 2004 and March 2009 from European Union
accession countries, almost half had returned by the end of 2008 as a
result of the UK economic contraction.
* Turkey has seen the steepest decline in remittance flows,
dropping 43 percent since the start of 2008; but remittances represent
only 0.2 percent of gross domestic product, so the effect is far less
severe than Moldova, which saw the second biggest drop (37 percent)
for a revenue stream that represents one-third of GDP. Bangladesh,
meanwhile, has experienced a 16 percent increase in remittances since
2008.
* Mexican inflows into the United States show a steep decline,
falling from 653,000 during the March 2004-2005 period to 175,000
between March 2008-2009, largely driven by reduced economic prospects
in the United States.
* Unemployment rates in Spain (which accounted for fully half of
all jobs lost in the European Union during the first six months of the
recession) rose for foreign-born workers from 10.2 percent during the
fourth quarter of 2005 to 28.4 percent during the first quarter of
2009, while native workers’ rates rose from 8.5 percent to 17.4
percent over the same period.

MPI President Demetrios G. Papademetriou, who co-authored the report
comments: “With international migration having extended its reach
across the globe in the last two decades or so, the recession's
savaging of the sectors in which most migrants are employed has meant
that more people in more countries have been affected than during any
other downturn in most people's memory. Yet so far, and despite a few
exceptions, there have been no dramatic changes in the way in which
either policymakers or migrants have behaved. Policymakers have made
only modest adjustments to immigration levels. And so far, relatively
few migrants are going back 'home.' One change is evident nonetheless:
In most migration corridors, fewer would-be immigrants are emigrating.
Staying put, then, seems to be the firmest interim conclusion one can
draw from the available data.”

“As for the near to mid-term, and without knowing when employment in
the major immigrant-attracting countries will start growing again, it
is 'safe' to predict that the need for immigrants across an expanding
number of countries is now structural and, as a result, large-scale
immigration will resume in the next two to five years,” Papademetriou
added.

Andrew Walker, Economics and Business Correspondent, BBC comments:
“This report is rich and diverse in detail, but one message stands
out. Migrant workers have been especially vulnerable to the global
economic storms that were blown up by the financial crisis. They are
more likely to lose their jobs and their families at home have paid
the price in the shape of less financial support. Many have pulled
down the shutters while the storm rages and decided to wait for better
times — either at home or, if they have already moved abroad, in their
host country. It is also very plain from the report that migration is
an increasingly important part of the global economic landscape.
Investment moves across borders fairly freely in search of the best
opportunities. Increasingly, people want to as well. The pattern
depends on where the opportunities are. But when the economy recovers,
people will be on the move once again.”

The report shows that the effects of the recession are nuanced and
varied, depending greatly on the character of the flows (permanent,
temporary, illegal and humanitarian); whether they are to or from a
destination country; and the region of the world involved. However, a
look at some of the major migration corridors suggests that illegal
and temporary worker flows are most affected by economic contraction.

Migration and the Global Recession is available at
http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/MPI-BBCreport-Sept09.pdf and
bbc.com/Aftershock.

Notes to Editors:
If using any of the material from the report please credit: BBC World
Service/Migration Policy Institute - Migration and the Global
Recession report.

The BBC World Service commissioned the report as part of the new
Aftershock season investigating the impact of the global recession,
which is broadcasting across the BBC’s global news services: BBC World
Service, BBC World News and BBC.com during September.

About: Migration and the Global Recession Report:
The BBC World Service report commissioned from MPI explores how the
recession has affected the movement of some the world’s 195 + million
migrants and the money they send to families at home (remittances) in
locations around the globe over the past year.

The 130-page report provides data on migration, remittances,
employment and poverty rates for immigrants and the native-born alike;
and examines the policy changes some countries have enacted to
suppress migrant inflows, encourage departures (including through
recent “pay-to-go” plans) and protect labor markets for native-born
workers.

The report also examines internal migration in China, and how the
recession affected the 70 million rural migrant workers who returned
to their hometowns for the 2009 Chinese New Year, in what amounts to
the world’s largest annual movement of people.

For more information or to arrange interviews, please contact:
Michelle Mittelstadt, +1 202-266-1910,
mmitte...@migrationpolicy.org
Penny Crook, +44 (0)207 557 1142, penny...@bbc.co.uk

The Migration Policy Institute, based in Washington, D.C., is an
independent, non-partisan, non-profit think tank dedicated to analysis
of the movement of people worldwide. For more on MPI, visit
http://www.migrationpolicy.org/.

BBC World Service is an international multimedia broadcaster
delivering 32 language and regional services. It uses multiple
platforms to reach 188 million listeners globally, including
shortwave, AM, FM, digital satellite and cable channels. It has around
2,000 partner radio stations which take BBC content, and numerous
partnerships supplying content to mobile phones and other wireless
handheld devices. Its news sites include audio and video content and
offer opportunities to join the global debate. For more information,
visit http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/. To find out more about the
BBC’s English language offer and subscribe to a free e-newsletter,
visit http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/programmeguide/.

###

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