Ford on Wednesday, 15 May 2013
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notsorichbob
May 15, 2013, 8:27:57 AM5/15/13
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wijram
May 15, 2013, 8:40:11 AM5/15/13
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Think Tank & All~
On the news front, housing disappoints:
----
MBA Purchase Applications
Released On 5/15/2013 7:00:00 AM For wk5/10, 2013
Prior Actual
Composite Index - W/W 7.0% -7.3%
Purchase Index - W/W 2.0% -4.0%
Refinance Index - W/W 8.0% -8.0%
Highlights
A big jump in rates pulled down mortgage activity sharply in the
May 10 week. The purchase index moved down from multi-year highs,
falling 4.0 percent, with the refinance index showing an even steeper
decline, down 8.0 percent. The average rate for 30-year fixed
mortgages with conforming balances ($417,500 or less) rose a very
steep 12 basis points in the week to 3.67 percent.
Application activity, including purchase activity which is still
near multi-year highs, is volatile week to week, but this week's dip
is severe and raises the risk that further increases in mortgage rates
could hold down seasonal activity in the housing sector. Home builders
will post the housing market index later this morning at 10:00 a.m.
ET.
----
On the news front, housing disappoints:
----
MBA Purchase Applications
Released On 5/15/2013 7:00:00 AM For wk5/10, 2013
Prior Actual
Composite Index - W/W 7.0% -7.3%
Purchase Index - W/W 2.0% -4.0%
Refinance Index - W/W 8.0% -8.0%
Highlights
A big jump in rates pulled down mortgage activity sharply in the
May 10 week. The purchase index moved down from multi-year highs,
falling 4.0 percent, with the refinance index showing an even steeper
decline, down 8.0 percent. The average rate for 30-year fixed
mortgages with conforming balances ($417,500 or less) rose a very
steep 12 basis points in the week to 3.67 percent.
Application activity, including purchase activity which is still
near multi-year highs, is volatile week to week, but this week's dip
is severe and raises the risk that further increases in mortgage rates
could hold down seasonal activity in the housing sector. Home builders
will post the housing market index later this morning at 10:00 a.m.
ET.
----
wijram
May 15, 2013, 8:45:19 AM5/15/13
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Think Tank & All~
On the news front, inflation at the producer level appears to be a non-
event:
----
Producer Price Index
Released On 5/15/2013 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2013
Prior Cons Consen Range Actual
PPI - M/M change -0.6% -0.7% -0.9%to0.1% -0.7%
PPI less fd&enrgy 0.2% 0.2% -0.2%to0.2% 0.1%
Market Consensus before announcement
The producer price index in March fell back 0.6 percent after a
strong 0.7 percent boost in February. The core rate, which excludes
both food and energy, increased 0.2 percent after rising 0.2 percent
in February. Analysts expected a 0.2 percent increase. Food prices
rebounded 0.8 percent after falling 0.5 in February. Energy costs in
March dropped 3.4 percent, following a 3.0 percent boost the month
before. Gasoline fell 6.8 percent after spiking 7.2 percent in
February. Within the core, almost one-quarter of the March advance was
due to prices for civilian aircraft, which rose 0.7 percent. Also,
pharmaceuticals increased 0.4 percent. Key players in the core,
passenger car prices gained 0.2 percent while light trucks were flat.
On the news front, inflation at the producer level appears to be a non-
event:
----
Producer Price Index
Released On 5/15/2013 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2013
Prior Cons Consen Range Actual
PPI - M/M change -0.6% -0.7% -0.9%to0.1% -0.7%
PPI less fd&enrgy 0.2% 0.2% -0.2%to0.2% 0.1%
Market Consensus before announcement
The producer price index in March fell back 0.6 percent after a
strong 0.7 percent boost in February. The core rate, which excludes
both food and energy, increased 0.2 percent after rising 0.2 percent
in February. Analysts expected a 0.2 percent increase. Food prices
rebounded 0.8 percent after falling 0.5 in February. Energy costs in
March dropped 3.4 percent, following a 3.0 percent boost the month
before. Gasoline fell 6.8 percent after spiking 7.2 percent in
February. Within the core, almost one-quarter of the March advance was
due to prices for civilian aircraft, which rose 0.7 percent. Also,
pharmaceuticals increased 0.4 percent. Key players in the core,
passenger car prices gained 0.2 percent while light trucks were flat.
wijram
May 15, 2013, 8:48:48 AM5/15/13
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Think Tank & All~
In the news ~ Unfortunately manufacturing in NY is not showing much
life!
----
Empire State Mfg Survey
Released On 5/15/2013 8:30:00 AM For May, 2013
Prior Cons Cons Range Actual
Gen Bus Cond Index 3.05 3.75 0.00to8.50 -1.43
Highlights
Conditions remain flat in the New York manufacturing sector which
isn't showing much life. The Empire State index fell more than 4
points in the May report to minus 1.43 for the first negative reading
since January. A negative reading indicates month-to-month contraction
though, in this case which is just barely below zero, only marginal
contraction compared to last month.
New orders are always the most important detail in these reports and,
like the headline index, have turned negative but only slightly, at
minus 1.17 vs plus 2.20 in April. These are flat rates as they are for
shipments which is at minus 0.02 this month vs plus 0.75 in April.
Unfilled orders are contracting at a deepening rate, delivery times
are shortening, inventories are falling, and price pressures are
easing -- all consistent with slow conditions.
A mild plus in the report is resilience in hiring with the employment
index showing respectable monthly growth at 5.68, just shy of March's
even more respectable 6.82. Gains in hiring point to underlying
confidence in future business conditions where optimism is, however,
easing but only slightly, to a still healthy 25.48 vs 31.95 in April.
Later this morning the Federal Reserve in Washington will post
national shipment data for April manufacturing which in the prior
report for March contracted slightly. Tomorrow morning the Philly Fed
will post its widely watched monthly report for April which in March
was once again flat. Note that the first national indication on May's
manufacturing activity will be posted next week on Thursday with
Markit Economics' PMI flash report.
Market Consensus before announcement
The Empire State manufacturing index slowed in April, declining more
than 6 points to plus 3.05. A positive reading indicates monthly
growth in general conditions but the current reading, down from 9.24
in March and 10.04 in February, indicates a slowing in monthly growth.
The slowing unfortunately included new orders which are still growing,
at 2.20, but just barely and down from monthly growth rates of 8.18
and 13.31 in the prior two months.
In the news ~ Unfortunately manufacturing in NY is not showing much
life!
----
Empire State Mfg Survey
Released On 5/15/2013 8:30:00 AM For May, 2013
Prior Cons Cons Range Actual
Gen Bus Cond Index 3.05 3.75 0.00to8.50 -1.43
Highlights
Conditions remain flat in the New York manufacturing sector which
isn't showing much life. The Empire State index fell more than 4
points in the May report to minus 1.43 for the first negative reading
since January. A negative reading indicates month-to-month contraction
though, in this case which is just barely below zero, only marginal
contraction compared to last month.
New orders are always the most important detail in these reports and,
like the headline index, have turned negative but only slightly, at
minus 1.17 vs plus 2.20 in April. These are flat rates as they are for
shipments which is at minus 0.02 this month vs plus 0.75 in April.
Unfilled orders are contracting at a deepening rate, delivery times
are shortening, inventories are falling, and price pressures are
easing -- all consistent with slow conditions.
A mild plus in the report is resilience in hiring with the employment
index showing respectable monthly growth at 5.68, just shy of March's
even more respectable 6.82. Gains in hiring point to underlying
confidence in future business conditions where optimism is, however,
easing but only slightly, to a still healthy 25.48 vs 31.95 in April.
Later this morning the Federal Reserve in Washington will post
national shipment data for April manufacturing which in the prior
report for March contracted slightly. Tomorrow morning the Philly Fed
will post its widely watched monthly report for April which in March
was once again flat. Note that the first national indication on May's
manufacturing activity will be posted next week on Thursday with
Markit Economics' PMI flash report.
Market Consensus before announcement
The Empire State manufacturing index slowed in April, declining more
than 6 points to plus 3.05. A positive reading indicates monthly
growth in general conditions but the current reading, down from 9.24
in March and 10.04 in February, indicates a slowing in monthly growth.
The slowing unfortunately included new orders which are still growing,
at 2.20, but just barely and down from monthly growth rates of 8.18
and 13.31 in the prior two months.
wijram
May 15, 2013, 8:50:54 AM5/15/13
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Think Tank & All~
In the news ~
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In the news ~
EU Probes Spanish Subsidy For Ford Plant
05/15 15-May-13 04:23:00
BRUSSELS--EU competition authorities on Wednesday announced an
investigation into 25.2 million euros in financing that Ford Motor Co
(F:$14.27,00$0.26,001.86%) received from the Spanish government to
produce a new model of the Transit at a plant near Valencia.
The European Commission said a preliminary investigation revealed that
the project might exceed the authorized 5% increase in production
capacity on a market in decline.
----
wijram
May 15, 2013, 8:53:42 AM5/15/13
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Think Tank & All~
Despite less than robust general market conditions at this hour, I
fully expect to see F common set a new 52-wk HIGH today.
Actually expect it to top John's projection of $14.40 before 1 June.
----
Despite less than robust general market conditions at this hour, I
fully expect to see F common set a new 52-wk HIGH today.
Actually expect it to top John's projection of $14.40 before 1 June.
----
notsorichbob
May 15, 2013, 9:03:04 AM5/15/13
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O - 14.30
H - 14.41
L - 14.18
C - 14.31
H - 14.41
L - 14.18
C - 14.31
in...@eagleconnector.com
May 15, 2013, 9:26:47 AM5/15/13
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Wijram - Hope your right with new high today and above $14.40 by the end of the month.
My other projection a little more than a week ago... general markets volatile 1600-1625 thru May, 1400 area at Labor Day... at least one of those balloons has burst.
| O | - | $14.27 |
| H | - | $14.33 |
| L | - | $14.15 |
| C | - | $14.20 |
| John | ||
wijram
May 15, 2013, 9:29:35 AM5/15/13
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Think Tank & All~
My hopes that we would set a new 52-wk HIGH at the OPEN seems
unlikely.
My numbers for the daily game follow:
O: $14.27
H: $14.40
L: $14.11
C: $14.36
On May 15, 7:26 am, "in...@eagleconnector.com"
My hopes that we would set a new 52-wk HIGH at the OPEN seems
unlikely.
My numbers for the daily game follow:
O: $14.27
H: $14.40
L: $14.11
C: $14.36
On May 15, 7:26 am, "in...@eagleconnector.com"
wijram
May 15, 2013, 9:36:18 AM5/15/13
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Hey John~
Actually, I was predicting that we would beat $14.40 TODAY! I had it
wrong when you thought it would get there, thought it was by the next
sales report, rather than by Labor Day.
Opps, I see that F just hit $14.40!
Seems like it may run quite a bit higher, eh?
Actually, I was predicting that we would beat $14.40 TODAY! I had it
wrong when you thought it would get there, thought it was by the next
sales report, rather than by Labor Day.
Opps, I see that F just hit $14.40!
Seems like it may run quite a bit higher, eh?
wijram
May 15, 2013, 10:35:57 AM5/15/13
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Think Tank & All~
Must admit two things. First, I just sold a good sized hunk of Jan
2014 $12.00 calls (Still holding a hunk of Jan 2015 $12.00 calls.)
Plan was (and is) to roll the funds into more Jan 2015 calls.
Second admission is that I sold too early. Left some money on the
table. Feelin' a little dumb right now.
On the other hand, if we get the dip, we may lower some risk and gain
more leverage.
Guess we must wait to see.
In the meantime, F rolls on ~ just traded at $14.60!
Pretty convincing!
Must admit two things. First, I just sold a good sized hunk of Jan
2014 $12.00 calls (Still holding a hunk of Jan 2015 $12.00 calls.)
Plan was (and is) to roll the funds into more Jan 2015 calls.
Second admission is that I sold too early. Left some money on the
table. Feelin' a little dumb right now.
On the other hand, if we get the dip, we may lower some risk and gain
more leverage.
Guess we must wait to see.
In the meantime, F rolls on ~ just traded at $14.60!
Pretty convincing!
notsorichbob
May 15, 2013, 10:53:36 AM5/15/13
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Wijram,
I'm not complaining, but why so much life in Ford right now? With those forced dips of just a week or two ago, I smell manipulation or a short squeeze. What are your thoughts? Is this just my paranoia?
I just cleared a few share blocks I bought on margin a few weeks ago in the dip. If tomorrow brings a dip I'll be buying again, even if it means some on margin.
nsrb
I'm not complaining, but why so much life in Ford right now? With those forced dips of just a week or two ago, I smell manipulation or a short squeeze. What are your thoughts? Is this just my paranoia?
I just cleared a few share blocks I bought on margin a few weeks ago in the dip. If tomorrow brings a dip I'll be buying again, even if it means some on margin.
nsrb
in...@eagleconnector.com
May 15, 2013, 11:28:40 AM5/15/13
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I've been away for a while... I guess Notsorichbob has the low and the high for the day... Wijram guess you got your new 52 week high and then some... Let's burry my $14.40 area by May sales.
John
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