F on Tuesday, 18 June 2013

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

 

Please do not respond to this posting as it will be eliminated very soon.

 

Think Tank & All~

 

General market conditions in the US look fairly favorable at this hour.   DJIA futures UP 30 pts and S&P UP 3.65 pts.

 

Hopefully we will have the opportunity to regain that which was lost yesterday by a very poorly article and the panic that it seemed to create.

 

While it looks good now, it is far too early to really see what is coming.

 

We do know that there will be three reports today that will carry some weight.  They are:

ICSC- Goldman Store Sales @ 7:45 AM  ET

Consumer Price Index  @ 8:30 AM ET

Housing Starts @ 8:30 AM ET

Red Book @ 8:55 AM ET

 

Moving back a little, Monday's game was very competitive.  nsrb had the best predictions for LOW and CLOSE.  His total variance was a respectable $.15.  However, the Old Relic had the same total variance of $.15. and had the best predictions for OPEN, HIGH and LOW (tied).

 

Our congratulations to both players, but wijram is recorded as having won with a four-bagger.

 

                nsrb         John      wijram     Actual

O:  $15.52     $15.51   $15.53*   $15.53

H:  $15.63     $15.61   $15.71*   $15.72

L:  $15.42*    $15.40   $15.46*   $15.44

C:  $15.58*    $15.49   $15.67     $15.55

v:   $   .15*     $    .22   $    .15

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

 

Amid the bad news, some very positive glimmers for those that are LONG in F.

 

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EU New Car Registrations Fall in May       06/18 18-Jun-13 01:35:00

 

MILAN--New car registrations in the European Union tumbled 5.9% in May to 1.04 million units, the lowest for the month in 20 years, with France'sPSA Peugeot Citroen SA (UG.FR) suffering the biggest fall among the region's largest manufacturers.

The result, published Tuesday by ACEA, an industry body based in Brussels, dimmed any hopes caused by the previous month's 1.7% gain that the market might be bottoming out after nearly two years of declines.

Fiat SpA (FIADF:$7.40,00$-0.07,00-0.94%) Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne recently told reporters that he didn't think the market had touched bottom, adding that it could take several years before it showed convincing signs of a recovery.

Since January, new car registrations in the EU reached 5.07 million units, down 6.8% from the same period last year.

New car registrations for PSA fell 13.2% for the month, followed by General Motors Co. (GM:$33.73,00$-0.56,00-1.63%) with a 11.3% decline. Fiat had a drop of 10.8%, Renault SA (RNSDF:$76.25,00$-2.35,00-2.99%) ( RNO.FR) had a 10% fall, while BMW AG (BMW.XE) was down 7.2%, Toyota Motor Corp. (TM:$120.38,00$3.00,002.56%) (TM, 7203.TO) was off 4.9% and Volkswagen AG (VLKAF:$207.10,00$4.35,002.15%) was 2.8% lower.

Ford Motor Co. (F:$15.55,00$0.18,001.17%) was off a mere 0.3%, while Daimler AG (DDAIF:$63.3791,$0.7391,1.18%) was the only one to produce a slight gain, up 0.7%.

PwC Autofacts foresees a 4% decline in registrations to 12 million units in 2013--a far cry from the 16 million recorded in 2007 before the financial crisis sent the region's market and the industry into a tailspin.

"Contracting economies, rising unemployment, falling disposable incomes, lack of low cost credit, and severe austerity measures have all taken a serious toll, " it said in a report. "The environment in the region remains difficult with discounting rife, margins slim, and downside risks still prevalent."

These conditions have forced auto makers--in particular those producing for the mass market--to cut costs, lay off workers and idle factories--if not shut them down for good.

A study by consulting firm AlixPartners showed that more than half of the 100 largest car assembly plants in Europe were losing money because they were operating below 75% of their capacity.

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

 

I should have noted in the last post that GM's sales were DOWN 11.3%.

 

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

 

Solid retail results:

 

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Released On 6/18/2013 7:45:00 AM For wk6/15, 2013 Prior Actual Store Sales - W/W change -2.7 % 0.3 % Store Sales - Y/Y 2.2 % 2.5 % Highlights ICSC-Goldman reports a solid 0.3 percent rise in same-store sales for the June 15 week, lifting the year-on-year rate also by 3 tenths to a respectable plus 2.5 percent. The report describes sales as mostly positive in the week. Both ICSC-Goldman and Redbook have reporting rising trends the last six weeks. Econoday will post Redbook's results later this morning at 8:55 a.m. ET.

 

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

 

Housing Starts Higher than Consensus

 

----

Housing Starts

Released On 6/18/2013 8:30:00 AM For May, 2013                                        Prior        PriorRev    Consens   Consen Range       Actual Starts - SAAR 0.853M 0.856 M 0.955 M 0.900Mto1.000M 0.914 M Permits - SAAR 1.017M 1.005 M 0.973 M 0.945Mto1.009M 0.974 M

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and, no sign of inflation becoming an issue

 

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Consumer Price Index

Released On 6/18/2013 8:30:00 AM For May, 2013   Prior     Cons     Cons Range   Actual CPI - M/M change   -0.4% 0.2%     0.0% to 0.5%   0.1 % CPI less fd & enrgy    0.1% 0.2%     0.1% to 0.2%   0.2 %

Market Consensus before announcement The consumer price index for April fell 0.4 percent after declining 0.2 percent in March. The core CPI-excluding food and energy was soft, matching the March rate of 0.1 percent. By major components outside the core, energy fell 4.3 percent, following a drop of 2.6 percent in March. Gasoline decreased 8.1 percent, following a decline of 4.4 percent. The food component rose 0.2 percent after no change in March. For the core measure, the indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and tobacco all increased in April. These increases were partially offset by declines in the indexes for apparel, airline fares, and recreation. Last week's PPI readings for May suggest that the CPI headline could be on the warm side but with the core still moderate.

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

 

Here are my early numbers for today.  I will almost certainly REVISE before the OPEN.

O:  $15.58

H:  $15.67

L:  $15.49

C:  $15.64

[notsorichbob]

O  -  15.55
H  -  15.73
L  -   15.51
C  -  15.69

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

My REVISED numbers:

O:  $15.54

H:  $15.65

L:  $15.44

C:  $15.61

[in...@eagleconnector.com]

O	-	$15.54
H	-	$15.68
L	-	$15.46
C	-	$15.52
John