Ford on Tuesday April 17 2012

[Gotluck]

Good morning TT,

I still don’t see3 the announcement for earnings. Did I miss
something? Seems to me when it looks like Europe has bottomed Ford
will get her wings back. By that logic I think there will be some rich
opportunity coming. I don’t want to guess where I think the floor will
be. The way it looks now I think mid 10’s. Throw in a catastrophe on a
bad day, add Romney slipping in the polls and some more dog and pony
show in Europe and I could see lower. Idunno.

Fridays Game
Plyr Tmln* Gtlk Nsrb Wjrm Avg. Actual
Open 11.95 11.99 12.02* 12.00* 11.99 12.01
High 12.04* 12.28 12.24 12.19 12.19 12.05
Low 11.86* 11.96 11.91 11.93 11.92 11.83
Close 11.97* 12.10 12.19 12.11 12.09 11.88
Diff. 0.19* 0.60 0.59 0.48 0.46

Congratulations Tmalone
Nice!

[tmalone]

Might as well just copy and paste yesterdays numbers, as I see nothing
inspiring in F today.

11.95
12.02
11.80
11.92

[notsorichbob]

O  -  11.97
H  -  12.11
L  -  11.87
C  -  21.01

[wijram]

Hey nsrb & Gotluck~

Methinks that notsorichbob meant the close to be $12.01 not $21.01!

[Gotluck]

I must confess, I like Nsrb's close just as it is.

11.97
12.08
11.70
11.79

[wijram]

Hey frozen kiwi~

I agree that F's financial results for the quarter in North America
should be an absolute blowout! However, don't forget the European
effect. This morning there is a report that F's monthly sales were
down 7.5% from a year ago and last year's sales were horrible.

Do remember that before leaving F, Lewis predicted a loss in European
operatioins of $600MM this year. I suspect that that amount may have
been heavily front loaded.

While I suspect that that number may have been seriously on the
pessimistic side, I am still afraid the impact of Europe will
significantly reduce the earnings we would otherwise expect.

On Apr 17, 7:57 am, notsorichbob <rlmorg...@gmail.com> wrote:

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Can we see a GAP UP this morning at the open?

Methinks!

[notsorichbob]

After chanting my mantra of $18 for so long, that $21 just slipped out.  A year ago I confidentially predicted a close for today of $21, I'm forced to admit it may be overly optimistic for today. so back to reality and 12.01.  So sad.

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~


O: $11.98
H: $12.10
L: $11.83
C: $12.03

[wijram]

Revise:

O: $11.96

On Apr 17, 8:20 am, notsorichbob <rlmorg...@gmail.com> wrote:

[wijram]

Hey Gotluck~

This may be one time that I am happy that I was too slow to make a
revision.

[tmalone]

Another day with the Dow up over 100 and F goes nowhere. Total BS!

> > > > > > C  -  21.01- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

[tmalone]

And GM is up 3%.....I guess I will never understand.

> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

[frozen kiwifruit]

Thanks for the thoughts Wij.  I've been focussing on the US operations mostly, I'll haven't had a serious look-see yet.  Damn time and it's limitations...

S&P roadmap for today.  Lucky me, closed out most shorts yesterday.  Choosing F as along appears to blow, but I think I can afford to be patient on that one...

http://screencast.com/t/70GxuoOa5r3

Short ADSK & TEN, long F and LVS.  Nothing too clear to me here, will keep my positions fairly small.  INTC and 

[tmalone]

Does anyone have any insight as to why F is all but flat today, yet GM
is up over 4% and the markets are skyrocketing?? Did I miss some
major negative news for Ford or something...

I will say that I have stayed with Ford as an investment all along. I
did jump back into trading options, in the form of May 13s, in the
last week or so. It seriously looks like I might have made a mistake
in doing so. I currently have my finger on the sell button, but my
gut says to give it a little more time.. Painful to watch though.

And now GM is up 4.5% >>>

[Paul]

I feel your pain tmalone, same thoughts going through my head.

Has anyone confirmed this PA-12 shortage story?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/04/16/a-potential-disaster-for-ford.aspx?source=ihpsitota0000001&lidx=9
I did hear about it elsewhere. If true this is not a Ford problem but
and auto industry problem.

[notsorichbob]

Paul, I'll make a comment completely 'out of school'.  This should be an easy fix fro a materials substitution, if the nylon PA-12 is not available, then make the part from acetal, teflon, machined brass, or sintered metal.  Reading the article my thought is 'we're looking into it' means 'the fix is in'.

[Paul]

Notsorichbob,
I agree, I feel as though there are probably plenty of other materials
that can be used. Was trying to figure out why Ford has not been
participated (as usual) and bumped into that story.

On Apr 17, 1:39 pm, notsorichbob <rlmorg...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Paul, I'll make a comment completely 'out of school'.  This should be an
> easy fix fro a materials substitution, if the nylon PA-12 is not available,
> then make the part from acetal, teflon, machined brass, or sintered metal.
> Reading the article my thought is 'we're looking into it' means 'the fix is
> in'.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Tuesday, April 17, 2012 12:16:28 PM UTC-4, Paul wrote:
>
> > I feel your pain tmalone, same thoughts going through my head.
>
> > Has anyone confirmed this PA-12 shortage story?
>

> >http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/04/16/a-potential-disaster...

[notsorichbob]

After the Feds are done looking into price manipulation in the refined oils markets, they should look into how Ford can be so divorced from the S&P 500 and the rest of the manufacturing world.  Today's F trading was irrational - at the least, more likely manipulated, but why?