F on Thursday, 30 May 2013

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Wednesday's game was another VERY CLOSE one, even if the variances
were extremely high. None of the three players foresaw the extent of
the run UP.

nsrb matched the Old Relic for the best prediction for the OPEN and
added the best prediction for the HIGH. The Old Relic, added the best
LOW and the best CLOSE to his tie for the OPEN. In addition to this
three-bag win, the Old Relic also managed to steal the best total
variance by a single cent from nsrb.

The actual numbers follow:

nsrb John wijram Actual
O: $15.24* $15.21 $15.24* $15.27
H: $15.45* $15.34 $15.43 $15.72
L: $15.15 $15.13 $15.16* $15.24
C: $15.31 $15.32 $15.33* $15.63
v: $ .71 $ .86 $ .70

[wijram]

Hey Mohojo~

Regarding the post you made late on Wednesday ~ I agree with your
points completely. If tomorrow's jobless claims report is really
GOOD, F should just SOAR right past $16.00 and if the report is not
good, F might just join the rest of the market in a bit of a swoon.

Of course the HUGE day will be next Monday, the 3rd, when US auto
sales will be reported! I'm pretty confident that the F's sales will
be pretty outstanding. My fear is that expectations are SOOOOO HIGH,
that disappointment might still reign.

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Jobless Claims report NOT good!

----
Jobless Claims
Released On 5/30/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk5/25, 2013
Prior
Prior Rvsd Cons Cons Range Actual
New Claims 340K 344K 340K 335Kto350K 354 K
4-wk Mvg Avg 339.5K 340.5K 347.25K
New Claims -23K -19K 10 K

Market Consensus before announcement
Initial jobless claims for the May 18 week fell 23,000 to a 340,000
level. A monthly comparison tied to the survey period for payroll
employment shows a 15,000 decline from the April 13 week. Also
favorable is the trend for continuing claims which were down a very
sizable 112,000 in the latest available data which is for the May 11
week. The level for continuing claims, at 2.912 million, is a new
recovery low as is the 4-week average at 2.995 million which is down
24,000 in the week.

----

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

GDP (The other BIGGIE) Meets expectations!
----
GDP

Released On 5/30/2013 8:30:00 AM For Q1:13

Prior Cons Cons Range Actl
Real GDP - Q/Q SAAR 2.5% 2.5% 2.2%to2.9% 2.4%
GDP price indx SAAR 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%to1.3% 1.1%

Market Consensus before announcement
GDP in the advance estimate for the first quarter grew 2.5 percent
after a modest 0.4 gain in the fourth quarter. Demand growth was very
sluggish with the weakest component being government purchases while
the bright spot was consumer spending. Final sales of domestic product
increased 1.5 percent after rising 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) improved
to a 1.9 percent boost, after a 1.5 percent gain in the fourth
quarter. Headline inflation for the GDP price index showed mild
acceleration to an annualized 1.2 percent in the first quarter from
1.0 percent the prior quarter. When excluding food and energy,
inflation pressure posted at 1.5 percent versus 1.3 percent the prior
quarter.

On May 29, 6:47 pm, wijram <wij...@gmail.com> wrote:

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Geez, we're facing another DOUBLE GAP UP in F this morning. Just
traded at 15.86!

[notsorichbob]

Wijram,
What's the old saw about gaps?  We are in territory where the market will come back and fill in these gaps within the year?
nsrb

[wijram]

Hey nsrb~

Hear ya! Also would not be surprised if that does occur in this case.

Yet the question for me at the moment is just how far F can run on
THESE legs.

Fully expect it to cross $16 on Monday if not today.

What think you?

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

My early numbers for today follow. I intend to be back before the
OPEN to REVISE, but things just might get a little too busy around
here.

O: $15.81
H: $16.03
L: $15.63
C: $15.94

[notsorichbob]

O  -  15.79
H  -   15.93
L  -   15.48
C  -   15.81

[Mohojo]

wijram, 

 I think there is a gap because of the expectation you were talking about. Monday maybe a "buy on rumor sell on news" day. What does everyone think?

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~
My REVISED numbers for today follow.

O: $15.78
H: $15.95
L: $15.53
C: $15.91


On May 30, 7:24 am, Mohojo <moh...@gmail.com> wrote:
> wijram,
> * *I think* *there is a gap because of the expectation you were talking

[Mohojo]

Yes, There really is not way to be sure if your not one of the big guys.

[notsorichbob]

Just checked in - happy to see the day I predicted for F did not materialize.  Got to like the daily game. Sometimes when you lose, you still win.
nsrb