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Date: Sun, 14 Oct 2012 23:09:06 +0000
Subject: The Big Picture
From: The Big Picture <thebigpict...@optonline.net>
To: FISICA_TEORICA@googlegroups.com
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ZT9rPXp3VXdfTko2d1lVNklITm5nNzI0WWRmcjJ1VQ0KDQpFbWFpbCBkZWxpdmVyeSBwb3dlcmVk
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NjA2MTANCg0K
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<a style=3D"color:#888;font-size:22px;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-se=
rif;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:none;" href=3D"http://www.ritholtz.c=
om/blog" title=3D"(http://www.ritholtz.com/blog)">The Big Picture</a>
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<ul style=3D"clear:both;padding:0 0 0 1.2em;width:100%" id=3D"summarylist">
<li>
<a href=3D"#1">Partysaurus Rex</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href=3D"#2">Microsoft versus Google IPO Performance, Valuation</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href=3D"#3">Will the EZ/China rely less on austerity measures in coming =
months</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href=3D"#4">Ritholtz’s Rules of Investing (part II)</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href=3D"#5">10 Sunday Reads</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href=3D"#6">The Most Beautiful Yacht in the World</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href=3D"#7">Jack Welch’s Gaffe</a>
</li>
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<p style=3D"margin:1em 0 3px 0;">
<a name=3D"1" style=3D"font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:1=
8px;" href=3D"http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~3/kEr20UqS_-k/?=
utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail">Partysaurus Rex</a>
</p>
<p style=3D"font-size:13px;color:#555;margin:9px 0 3px 0;font-family:Georgi=
a,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-height:140%;font-size:13px;">
<span>Posted:</span> 14 Oct 2012 03:12 PM PDT</p>
<div style=3D"margin:0;font-family:Georgia,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-=
height:140%;font-size:13px;color:#000000;"><p><em>This is hilarious:</em></=
p>
<p>Toy Story’s Rex, the green dinosaur, gets a chance to shed his par=
ty-pooper past in Disney=E2=80=A2Pixar’s new animated short.</p>
<p><iframe width=3D"480" height=3D"270" src=3D"http://video.disney.com/embe=
d/4cb5aeaed8df6adddc0f952d" frameborder=3D"0" allowfullscreen scrolling=3D"=
no"></iframe><br/><a href=3D"http://video.disney.com/watch/partysaurus-rex-=
4cb5aeaed8df6adddc0f952d">Partysaurus Rex on Disney Video</a></p>
<p>Full HD version here: <a href=3D"http://video.disney.com/watch/partysaur=
us-rex-4cb5aeaed8df6adddc0f952d" target=3D"_blank">Disney=E2=80=A2Pixar</a>=
</p>
<p><a href=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr=
2uU/mHTzgdA0FPwm6uzG1-8wv3jXB_4/0/pa"><img src=3D"https://feedads.g.doublec=
lick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr2uU/mHTzgdA0FPwm6uzG1-8wv3jXB_4/0/pi" b=
order=3D"0" ismap=3D"true"></img></a><br/>
<a href=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr2uU=
/mHTzgdA0FPwm6uzG1-8wv3jXB_4/1/pa"><img src=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclic=
k.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr2uU/mHTzgdA0FPwm6uzG1-8wv3jXB_4/1/pi" bord=
er=3D"0" ismap=3D"true"></img></a></p><div class=3D"feedflare">
<a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fu=
xa3FD7uEk:yIl2AUoC8zA"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPi=
cture?d=3DyIl2AUoC8zA" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feed=
burner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:7Q72WNTAKBA"><img =
src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3D7Q72WNTAKBA" borde=
r=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture=
?a=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:dnMXMwOfBR0"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburn=
er.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3DdnMXMwOfBR0" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=
=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7u=
Ek:D7DqB2pKExk"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=
=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:D7DqB2pKExk" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"=
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:V=
_sGLiPBpWU"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3Dk=
Er20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:V_sGLiPBpWU" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http=
://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:qj6ID=
K7rITs"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3Dqj6ID=
K7rITs" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/=
TheBigPicture?a=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:F7zBnMyn0Lo"><img src=3D"http://f=
eeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:F7zBnMyn0=
Lo" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheB=
igPicture?a=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:KwTdNBX3Jqk"><img src=3D"http://feeds=
.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:KwTdNBX3Jqk" =
border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPi=
cture?a=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:l6gmwiTKsz0"><img src=3D"http://feeds.fee=
dburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3Dl6gmwiTKsz0" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a h=
ref=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3F=
D7uEk:gIN9vFwOqvQ"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPictur=
e?i=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7uEk:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=
=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DkEr20UqS_-k:Fuxa3FD7u=
Ek:TzevzKxY174"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=
=3DTzevzKxY174" border=3D"0"></img></a>
</div><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~4/kEr20UqS_=
-k?utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail" height=3D"1" width=3D"1"/></=
div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=3D"margin-bottom:0;line-height:1.4em;">
<p style=3D"margin:1em 0 3px 0;">
<a name=3D"2" style=3D"font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:1=
8px;" href=3D"http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~3/VuIfQJH3S80/?=
utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail">Microsoft versus Google IPO Per=
formance, Valuation</a>
</p>
<p style=3D"font-size:13px;color:#555;margin:9px 0 3px 0;font-family:Georgi=
a,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-height:140%;font-size:13px;">
<span>Posted:</span> 14 Oct 2012 12:00 PM PDT</p>
<div style=3D"margin:0;font-family:Georgia,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-=
height:140%;font-size:13px;color:#000000;"><p><em>Click to enlarge:</em><br=
/>
<a href=3D"http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/1002char=
t.jpg" target=3D"_blank"><img class=3D"alignnone wp-image-84510" title=3D"=
chart" src=3D"http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/1002c=
hart.jpg" alt=3D"" width=3D"622" height=3D"337" /></a><br />
Source: Bloomberg</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Fascinating comparison between Google and Microsoft gains since their IP=
Os from Dave Wilson.=C2=A0Earlier this month, Google managed to slip past M=
ister Softee in terms of market cap =C2=A0(MSFT is now $244.8B vs GOOG=C2=
=A0$243.56B).</p>
<p>Microsoft Corp.=E2=80=99s stock-market performance during its first eigh=
t years as a public company far surpassed Google.=C2=A0MSFT soared about 30=
-fold in the 8 year period after its March 1986 IPO, peaked at more than $6=
00 billion in cap in December 1999.</p>
<p>The key to long term IPO performance is initial valuation when going pub=
lic.=C2=A0Microsoft soared about 30-fold in the same period after its March=
1986 IPO.=C2=A0Microsoft=E2=80=99s market capitalization, which peaked at =
more than $600 billion in December 1999.</p>
<p>The gap in stock performance reflects a disparity between the valuation =
of Google, based in Mountain View, California, and Microsoft, based in Redm=
ond, Washington, when they first sold shares publicly.=C2=A0Google was valu=
ed at $23 billion in its IPO, which followed a price cut and a reduction in=
the number of shares sold. The dollar amount was 44 times the comparable f=
igure for Microsoft, which went public at a $519 million valuation.</p>
<p>Consider this when you consider what Facebook’s long term performa=
nce might look like, coming public near $100 billion valuation . . .</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Source:</em><br />
Microsoft Gains Ease Sting of Google Valuation<br />
David Wilson<br />
Bloomberg,=C2=A0October 2, 2012</p>
<p><a href=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr=
2uU/_vWANCWsYKnZY5edbsxb5ZNEnlo/0/pa"><img src=3D"https://feedads.g.doublec=
lick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr2uU/_vWANCWsYKnZY5edbsxb5ZNEnlo/0/pi" b=
order=3D"0" ismap=3D"true"></img></a><br/>
<a href=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr2uU=
/_vWANCWsYKnZY5edbsxb5ZNEnlo/1/pa"><img src=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclic=
k.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr2uU/_vWANCWsYKnZY5edbsxb5ZNEnlo/1/pi" bord=
er=3D"0" ismap=3D"true"></img></a></p><div class=3D"feedflare">
<a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DVuIfQJH3S80:Aw=
yXeQTiXfo:yIl2AUoC8zA"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPi=
cture?d=3DyIl2AUoC8zA" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feed=
burner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:7Q72WNTAKBA"><img =
src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3D7Q72WNTAKBA" borde=
r=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture=
?a=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:dnMXMwOfBR0"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburn=
er.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3DdnMXMwOfBR0" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=
=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiX=
fo:D7DqB2pKExk"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=
=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:D7DqB2pKExk" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"=
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:V=
_sGLiPBpWU"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DV=
uIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:V_sGLiPBpWU" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http=
://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:qj6ID=
K7rITs"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3Dqj6ID=
K7rITs" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/=
TheBigPicture?a=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:F7zBnMyn0Lo"><img src=3D"http://f=
eeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:F7zBnMyn0=
Lo" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheB=
igPicture?a=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:KwTdNBX3Jqk"><img src=3D"http://feeds=
.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:KwTdNBX3Jqk" =
border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPi=
cture?a=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:l6gmwiTKsz0"><img src=3D"http://feeds.fee=
dburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3Dl6gmwiTKsz0" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a h=
ref=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQ=
TiXfo:gIN9vFwOqvQ"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPictur=
e?i=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiXfo:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=
=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DVuIfQJH3S80:AwyXeQTiX=
fo:TzevzKxY174"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=
=3DTzevzKxY174" border=3D"0"></img></a>
</div><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~4/VuIfQJH3S=
80?utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail" height=3D"1" width=3D"1"/></=
div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=3D"margin-bottom:0;line-height:1.4em;">
<p style=3D"margin:1em 0 3px 0;">
<a name=3D"3" style=3D"font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:1=
8px;" href=3D"http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~3/9eTyAL9tEnQ/?=
utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail">Will the EZ/China rely less on =
austerity measures in coming months</a>
</p>
<p style=3D"font-size:13px;color:#555;margin:9px 0 3px 0;font-family:Georgi=
a,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-height:140%;font-size:13px;">
<span>Posted:</span> 14 Oct 2012 10:13 AM PDT</p>
<div style=3D"margin:0;font-family:Georgia,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-=
height:140%;font-size:13px;color:#000000;"><p>Unsurprisingly, the US is foc=
used on the impending Presidential elections. The latest polls suggest that=
Mr Romney is in the lead, but the odds on Intrade, which I follow, suggest=
that President Obama will win – the President is currently priced at=
62% (and declining), down from a high of over 70% ahead of the first TV de=
bate, which President Obama clearly lost. A number of Americans believe tha=
t Romney will surprise everyone and win the election, though I will stick t=
o Intrade at present. However, the uncertainty as to the winner of the impe=
nding Presidential elections has resulted in US businesses freezing all inv=
estment and hiring programmes. In addition, US businesses are cautious give=
n the deteriorating global economic conditions.</p>
<p>Last weeks NFP data was greeted by much disbelief, but the conspiracy th=
eories that swirled around, post the announcement are a nonsense – th=
e numbers are what they are – they are not perfect by any means and w=
ill be revised, as they always are. Furthermore, one should not focus on on=
e data set, but rather on the trend, though given the boost to the Obama ca=
mpaign following the announcement of the sharply lower unemployment rate (7=
.8%) in particular, a number of commentators have suggested all sorts of sc=
ams designed to portray a better number. In particular, alleged rigging of =
the NFP numbers by Washington, made by the former CEO of GE, Mr Jack Welsh,=
attracted much attention, but his criticism generally has backfired. A nu=
mber of allegations have reemerged as to Mr Welsh’s use of “cre=
ative accounting” in respect of published earnings reported by GE, wh=
en he headed up the company !!!. The much debated September NFP data will m=
ean that the October NFP data (to be released on 2nd November) will be watc=
hed even more closely, as will the remaining 2 TV debates between the Presi=
dent and Governor Romney.</p>
<p>We are in US 3rd Q earnings season and the reported results to date, tog=
ether with the accompanying statements, suggest that corporate earnings are=
worsening and that the ridiculously optimistic 4th Q earnings forecasts wi=
ll have to be revised materially lower. Analysts continue to play the game =
of forecasting much higher earnings, only to revise them lower over time, =
following “chats” with the investor relations departments of mo=
st US businesses. The end result is that most companies either “meet&=
#8221; and/or “beat” the reduced forecasts. Furthermore, opera=
ting earnings, which is the number focused on, are “managed” to=
the such an extent that everything the CEO/CFO do not like is considered a=
n exceptional item and excluded from the published number. Quite frankly, o=
perating earnings are a complete sham and should be disregarded in most cas=
es – personally, I follow cash flow, rather than earnings. The bottom=
line is that US earnings are coming under pressure, which clearly will be =
a negative for markets. Furthermore, insiders are selling and/or not buying=
, which is another significant negative.</p>
<p>I attended Barry Ritholtz’s excellent “Big Picture” co=
nference in New York last week. The (seriously) bearish predictions would m=
ake you want you to slit your wrists, throat and possibly something else. S=
ure, there are problems, but I believe the game, in the coming 3 to 6 month=
s, is going to be played outside of the US. The risks to the US are clearly=
to the downside (especially if the fiscal cliff issues are not resolved, t=
hough markets believe that they will be, at least partially), though potent=
ial (positive?) events in Europe and China (see below) will prove to be mor=
e important. Essentially, I believe investors should focus far, far more on=
Europe and China in coming months. If Mr Romney wins the Presidency, the i=
nitial euphoria could well give way to selling, if tougher spending plans, =
combined with stricter budget deficit targets are introduced. A win by Obam=
a may result in an initial sell off, but I do not believe it will last long=
. In any event, the outcome of the elections may well unblock the freeze in=
spending/hiring by US businesses, which should provide some impetus for th=
e US economy.</p>
<p>US businesses are on hold due to the upcoming Presidential elections and=
slowing global demand – essentially, US businessmen recognise that t=
he US economy is not as isolated from the global economy as was the case so=
me years ago. The economic situation in Europe, in particular, though also =
in countries such as China, will impact the US increasingly in the future. =
However, the US remains the “best dirty shirt in town”, as Mr G=
ross of Pimco describes the situation, though economic growth will remain a=
nemic – around 1.0% to 1.5% at best, unless the fiscal cliff issues c=
annot be addressed, in which case the economy will slip into recession.</p>
<p>Housing remains the key – I continue to believe that US housing is=
improving and, furthermore, will continue to do so. Inventory levels are d=
eclining, with prices rising and whilst the availability of mortgages is li=
mited, due to stricter lending standards, the situation should continue to =
improve. US homeowners continuing to refi at lower rates, increasing dispos=
able income, though banks are not passing on the full effects of the FED=
217;s actions and, furthermore, are taking their time to process the refis.=
However, the backlog of refi applications should clear sometime next year =
and I believe that competition subsequently will force US banks to reduce t=
heir currently strict lending standards and begin to lend more, a further h=
elp to the US housing market. There is certainly demand out there.</p>
<p>Moving on to China. Not withstanding the better September export data (l=
ikely due to seasonal factors) released yesterday (exports rose by +9.9%, u=
p sharply from +2.7% in August), Chinese economic data continues to indicat=
e a weakening economy. Excluding the injection of liquidity by the PBoC and=
a meaningful increase in fixed asset spending on the railways, the Chinese=
authorities have not announced a significant stimulus programme to date, a=
s was expected. A number of provinces have announced jumbo building program=
mes, but one must treat such announcements with a great deal of cynicism, d=
ue to their lack of finance.</p>
<p>The Communist Party Congress has been called for 8th November and the au=
thorities will deal (likely very harshly) with Mr Bo ahead of that. After a=
ll, he threatened the establishment by actually seeking support from the pe=
ople !!!! one of the most heinous crimes you can commit in China. In additi=
on, it looks as if the new leaders of China have been chosen. A stimulus pr=
ogramme (very much needed, given the sharply deteriorating economic situati=
on), will have to be put in place, but only once the new leaders are in pow=
er – after all, they will want to take the credit for the measures. T=
hat suggests an announcement or, more likely, a series of announcements som=
etime in the 1st Q of next year, though there is an outside chance of some =
policy measures being announced later this year. In addition, I cannot see =
how the authorities can continue to bear down materially on the housing sec=
tor. Whilst they remain concerned not to allow price increases to rise mate=
rially, they clearly will be keen on a pick up in prices, which will feed t=
hrough to greater economic activity domestically. In summary, China needs a=
stimulus package and I for one believe one is coming. Whilst I remain neut=
ral at present, I will become increasingly bullish on China, in the short t=
erm once these policies are announced.</p>
<p>However, as you all know, in the medium to longer term, I continue to be=
lieve that China will face significant economic problems whatever the autho=
rities do and remain particularly bearish. Their economy is so distorted th=
at any remedial action will have a material adverse consequence – Chi=
na’s only choice is to pick the least worse option(s) – the pro=
blem is that even the least worse are bad. Essentially, China is not the ma=
ster of its own destiny and will need a sharp recovery in the US and Europe=
, if it is to recover. Furthermore the near +10% growth rates are a thing o=
f the past – I believe that GDP will decline to +5.0% or even lower i=
n a few years time – consider the political consequences of that.</p>
<p>The EU and the EZ, in particular, continues to disappoint. The region is=
in recession, with the situation deteriorating, unfortunately far, far fas=
ter than analysts can announce their economic downgrades – you really=
need a Bloomberg terminal to keep abreast of the situation. However, I sen=
se (its still very early) a change may be coming.</p>
<p>Mrs Merkel’s visit to Athens (she faced an extremely hostile crowd=
) is a clear sign that she is determined to assist Greece – certainly=
in the near future. Remember that Mrs Merkel faces elections in autumn nex=
t year. As a result, it looks as if the Troika’s report will be fudge=
d so as to allow Greece to receive its next tranche of aid, most likely in =
November. It will be interesting to see how the IMF handle this. It’s=
not going to be an easy ride, given the sceptical views of Holland and Fin=
land, though do not underestimate Mrs Merkel – the odds are that she =
will push it through. Will Greece meet its targets subsequently – wel=
l, if you believe that……….The real issue is that Mrs Merk=
el does not want Greece to default ahead of requests for bail outs by Spain=
and others, which will need to be approved by the her Parliament, the Bund=
estag. It makes approval of further bail outs (and a number will be coming =
imminently), much, much more difficult. a number of members of her coalitio=
n, the FPD and, indeed, her own party, remain sceptical and will become eve=
n more emboldened to block further bail outs if Greece were to default.</p>
<p>In the past, Mrs Merkel has had to rely on support from the opposition (=
SPD) to pass the necessary legislation in respect of bailout packages for E=
Z countries and other related matters. However, with a new leader in place,=
Mr Steinbruck, (who is deemed fiscally credible), the SPD wants “pol=
itical concessions” from Mrs Merkel, if they are to support further b=
ail outs, even though the SPD are more pro EU/EZ than Mrs Merkels party the=
CDU – indeed, Mr Steinbruck accused Mrs Merkel of not doing enough f=
or Greece, which was another reason why Mrs Merkel visited Athens last week=
. The German population are becoming increasingly reluctant to bail out oth=
er EZ countries, in particular Greece. They are all to aware of the cost of=
bailing out E Germany and they were their countrymen. Furthermore, not eve=
n Germany has a blank cheque book.</p>
<p>OK, so Greece lives another day, but post the German general elections i=
n autumn next year, will it remain in the EZ. I continue to believe not. Ir=
respective of the statements by Greek politicians, Greece will need additio=
nal funds – whilst Mrs Merkel may push through measures to release fu=
nds already allocated to Greece, its a very different matter to suggest tha=
t she will be able to sell the idea of a third bail out package for Greece.=
A recent poll suggest that only 25% of Germans approve providing further a=
ssistance to Greece and the vast majority of Germans do not believe that Gr=
eece will repay the loans already provided to the country – well they=
are right – the Greeks wont. There will be yet another restructuring=
of Greek debt, this time to include official sector loans – the form=
er Greek finance minister stated exactly that. The current debt load –=
; forecast by the IMF to raise to 150%, is unsustainable. The IMF is pushin=
g for official sector involvement, OSI, (though clearly they will expect th=
eir money back), but the EZ politicians and in particular Mrs Merkel, for t=
he reasons set out above, are totally opposed to any haircut on official se=
ctor loans – very difficult to explain to your public. The ECB has re=
fused to extend the maturity of debt owned by Greece, claiming that it is t=
antamount to financing of governments, which is illegal under its constitut=
ion. There is talk about Greece buying back its own debt, which is trading =
at a major discount to par – sensible, if Greece has the funds availa=
ble, as it will reduce debt to GDP.</p>
<p>OK, so the Greek can is kicked down the road. Then comes Cyprus and quit=
e possibly Slovenia, though I will just concentrate on Spain in this note. =
The former regime in Spain was “economical with the truth”. The=
current regime is in denial and dithers endlessly. Spain will NEVER meet i=
ts budget deficit targets for this and/or next year, by a very wide margin.=
That is clear, but the Spanish authorities remain in denial. However, they=
will need a bailout – most likely a precautionary line of credit fro=
m the EFSF/ESM sometime in late October/November – after the regional=
elections on the 21st October. Yes, the ECB’s statement that they wi=
ll buy short term debt of countries that request assistance from the EFSF/E=
SM has reduced tail risk and, indeed, stabilised bond yields. However, Spa=
nish debt to GDP is rising at such an alarming rate, which, combined with l=
arge private sector debt (which, worse still, is concentrated), suggests th=
at the situation in Spain will deteriorate much, much further and faster. I=
do not believe that Spain will be able to repay all of its accumulated deb=
t in the future, which suggests to little old me that Spain will have to re=
structure its public sector debt in due course. The country does not have t=
he economic capacity to repay its debts – in the past GDP was heavily=
reliant on construction – great that’s disappeared for a decad=
e at the very least. Furthermore, the Spanish banking system is insolvent &=
#8211; they have not recognised the true value of their assets, though the =
same can be said of a number of banks in Europe, I accept. The E50bn+ sugge=
sted as sufficient to recap Spanish banks is totally ludicrous – the =
real number will be well in excess of E100bn. Last week, Spain was downgrad=
ed by S&P, with a negative outlook ie a downgrade to junk is coming. T=
he clouds are gathering.</p>
<p>The Spanish PM faces a political dilemma in that he promised, prior to t=
he general elections, that he would not allow for “supervision”=
/oversight of Spain by other parties, such as the EU/ECB/IMF. In addition,=
he faces regional elections on 21st October and does not want to be seen t=
o request aid ahead of those elections. He is trying desperately to deflect=
potential criticism/stigma by suggesting that both Italy and Spain request=
aid from the EZ at the same time – no chance Senior, as the Italian =
PM, Mr Monti, has told him. Mr Rajoy faces breakaway threats from Catalonia=
, though such threats should be ignored. Catalonia will not be recognised a=
s an independent country by the EU and will not be able to raise finance in=
capital markets if it achieved independence. In addition, over 70% of its =
trade is with Spain, making it vulnerable. The EU would not want to encoura=
ge breakaways and will covertly stop Catalonia from becoming an EU member. =
However, Catalonia could demand additional fiscal concessions – which=
would just aggravate the Spanish central budget – a real threat. Not=
a great scenario.</p>
<p>OK, so Mrs Merkel/Schaeuble know that Spain will need a bail out, but wa=
nt, for domestic political reasons, to deal with all such issues at one tim=
e, given they are facing a more sceptical Bundestag. They really want to de=
al with all of the relevant countries at one time. As a result, some time i=
n late October, though most likely in November, Spain will request aid from=
the EZ and will receive a “precautionary line of credit” in th=
e first instance. That will enable the ECB to start buying up to 3 year Spa=
nish debt in the markets, which should stabilise the situation, certainly f=
or a while.</p>
<p>The market has not focused on France for the moment. As you know, I beli=
eve France to be the real political, economic and financial threat to the E=
Z. Its economy is deteriorating and worse still, the downward trend can be =
described as “awful”. A Socialist President will help, as the p=
ublic will know that he will be inclined to be more proactive – howev=
er, the kitty is bare. Monsieur Hollande has already upset the unions ̵=
1; just look at Peugeot. He has upset the rich, who are voting with their f=
eet and exiting the country. His ratings have slipped precipitously. In due=
course, President Hollande will admit to his people that the economic situ=
ation in France (which he will state he inherited from President Sarkozy) i=
s much much worse than initially thought and that he will have to impose ad=
ditional spending cuts. A Socialist President has a better chance of gettin=
g away with this, that would have been the case with Mr Sarkozy, but its go=
ing to be tricky. The French are known to take to the streets and coming mo=
nths will clearly be critical, especially as we head into spring next year.=
However, the political and economic situation in France, the key country (=
with Germany) in the EU will, I believe, force EZ politicians to reconsider=
their current austerity measures and, more likely, ease such policies, in =
exchange for countries promoting structural changes, including labour refor=
ms. It will remain difficult, given the inherent culture in these countries=
, but austerity, by itself, has past its sell by date. The EZ clearly needs=
to introduce growth measures and focus more on structural (including labou=
r) reforms.</p>
<p>However, far more importantly, is that I sense the beginnings of a chang=
e in policy. The IMF has admitted (in its latest World Economic Outlook) th=
at they have been wrong and that austerity measures, such as tax increases =
and significant cuts in public spending, may well be self-defeating and, in=
deed, doing more harm than good. The reason is the effect of the fiscal mul=
tiplier, which the IMF data suggests could be around 0.9 to 1.7 times, much=
higher than the estimate of around 0.5, previously used. In other words, f=
or every $1 of tax increases/spending cuts, the underlying economy will con=
tract by between 0.9 and 1.7 times the amount of the austerity measures ie =
$0.90 or $1.70. The negative effect is particularly pronounced when interes=
t rates are near zero and when other countries are also reducing their budg=
et deficits at the same time, as is the case at present. The IMF data has b=
een questioned, including by the EU, though I believe it to to be true and =
evidence from Spain, Portugal and Greece suggests exactly that. The IMF rep=
ort suggests that austerity measures should be phased in over time, rather =
than front end loaded as at present, with a focus on structural (including =
labour) reforms, certain a view that I also share.</p>
<p>At the last ECB meeting, Mr Draghi advised that the conditions to be imp=
osed on EZ countries, whose bonds are to be bought by the ECB (on the basis=
these countries ask for a bail out and are subject to continuing review), =
need not be particularly austere. He added that it was far more important =
for such countries to phase in the austerity measures over time whilst intr=
oducing structural (including labour) reforms and growth measures. In other=
words, do not worry about reducing the fiscal deficits as fast as currentl=
y planned, but get on with much needed structural reforms. I very much agre=
e with Mr Draghi.</p>
<p>It looks as if Europe is backing off implementing the Basel 111 criteria=
. Certainly will ease the pressure on European banks, who are faced with ha=
ving to shrink their balance sheets.</p>
<p>Countries within the EZ have agreed to a fiscal compact, which is design=
ed to force countries to meet certain predefined targets, in particular, bu=
dget deficits. We all know, that Greece, Portugal, Spain and France will no=
t meet their targets, quite likely others – Holland, for example, wil=
l struggle. Indeed, the only country in the EZ that has met its target is I=
reland, though the country faces yet more austerity measures – not go=
ing to go down well, to say the least. Indeed, there are signs in Ireland t=
hat the population, which to date, went along with the measures have had en=
ough. As a result of increasing opposition to austerity measures, new negot=
iations will be needed, most probably starting late this year into early ne=
xt. Targets will have to be revised and set at realistic levels. In additio=
n, the EU will be able to supervise national budgets much more closely (a c=
ondition of the fiscal compact) – clearly will be hated by the releva=
nt countries, but that the way the EZ is going. What better time, to relax =
on pure austerity measures and focus on structural, in particular, labour r=
eforms.</p>
<p>There is speculation that Germany may announce tax cuts for its people =
– well Mrs Merkel is facing a general election in autumn 2013. German=
GDP forecasts, as is the case with other countries in the EZ, are being re=
vised lower – likely will have to be reduced even further. Essentiall=
y, Germany is not immune from the global economic slowdown, in particular i=
n respect of its materially important export sector – there is clear =
evidence of weaker demand from countries such as China, clearly from the re=
st of the EZ and, if the US is weaker, well……..To date, the Ger=
man domestic economy has, held up, but unemployment has begun to rise and I=
would expect that consumption will weaken. To face an electorate with a de=
teriorating economy is not an appealing position for politicians . Accordin=
gly, I believe that Mrs Merkel may well be “convinced” by the l=
ikes of Mrs Lagarde and Mr Draghi that the current policy of severe austeri=
ty, without any growth measures, may well be past its sell by date. Mrs Me=
rkel is not a dogmatic politician – she will change, if circumstances=
require a change in policy. Most importantly, the thought of going down in=
history as the first political leader of an united Europe (a role she most=
certainly covets) must appeal.</p>
<p>If I’m right (in particular in respect of China and the EZ, in par=
ticular) and I admit that the above views are more speculative at present, =
policy may well change within 3 to 6 months. The alternatives – well =
there is clear evidence that a number of EZ countries are increasingly oppo=
sed to the austerity measures and that China will slow down to even more da=
ngerous levels. Rising civil disorder will be the name of the game, if the =
current situation remains – OK, so we are coming into winter and stri=
kes and demonstrations will be limited – though by next spring !!!!. =
However, if policy remains unchanged, increasing civil disorder will be the=
name of the game. On balance, I believe that the EZ and Chinese policy wil=
l change ahead of such events – I just don’t believe that they =
have other credible alternatives.</p>
<p>As a result, I’m not in favour of US markets at present, especiall=
y the NASDAQ, though will be looking to increase my holdings in Europe (fin=
ancials?) and derivatives of China – probably close my A$ short, at l=
east. It may well be that China and European markets outperform the US next=
year, particularly in the 1st half.</p>
<p>Have a great weekend</p>
<p>Kiron Sarkar</p>
<p>14th October 2012</p>
<p><a href=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr=
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cture?d=3DyIl2AUoC8zA" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feed=
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uA:D7DqB2pKExk"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=
=3D9eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfLCvVuA:D7DqB2pKExk" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"=
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3D9eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfLCvVuA:V=
_sGLiPBpWU"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3D9=
eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfLCvVuA:V_sGLiPBpWU" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http=
://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3D9eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfLCvVuA:qj6ID=
K7rITs"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3Dqj6ID=
K7rITs" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/=
TheBigPicture?a=3D9eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfLCvVuA:F7zBnMyn0Lo"><img src=3D"http://f=
eeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3D9eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfLCvVuA:F7zBnMyn0=
Lo" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheB=
igPicture?a=3D9eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfLCvVuA:KwTdNBX3Jqk"><img src=3D"http://feeds=
.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3D9eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfLCvVuA:KwTdNBX3Jqk" =
border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPi=
cture?a=3D9eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfLCvVuA:l6gmwiTKsz0"><img src=3D"http://feeds.fee=
dburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3Dl6gmwiTKsz0" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a h=
ref=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3D9eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfL=
CvVuA:gIN9vFwOqvQ"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPictur=
e?i=3D9eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfLCvVuA:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=
=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3D9eTyAL9tEnQ:QRuYfLCvV=
uA:TzevzKxY174"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=
=3DTzevzKxY174" border=3D"0"></img></a>
</div><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~4/9eTyAL9tE=
nQ?utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail" height=3D"1" width=3D"1"/></=
div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=3D"margin-bottom:0;line-height:1.4em;">
<p style=3D"margin:1em 0 3px 0;">
<a name=3D"4" style=3D"font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:1=
8px;" href=3D"http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~3/wOQ9ROHhKs4/?=
utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail">Ritholtz’s Rules of Inves=
ting (part II)</a>
</p>
<p style=3D"font-size:13px;color:#555;margin:9px 0 3px 0;font-family:Georgi=
a,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-height:140%;font-size:13px;">
<span>Posted:</span> 14 Oct 2012 08:00 AM PDT</p>
<div style=3D"margin:0;font-family:Georgia,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-=
height:140%;font-size:13px;color:#000000;"><p><a href=3D"http://www.washing=
tonpost.com/barry-ritholtz/2011/03/31/AFWBwIBC_viewAll.html" target=3D"_bla=
nk"><img class=3D"alignnone size-full wp-image-65984" title=3D"twp_logo_300=
" src=3D"http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/twp_logo_3=
00.gif" alt=3D"" width=3D"300" height=3D"47" /></a></p>
<p><span style=3D"color: #ffffff;">></span></p>
<p>My Sunday <em>Washington Post Business Section</em> column is out. This =
morning, we look at <a href=3D"http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ritho=
ltzs-rules-of-investing-part-ii/2012/10/12/0dc5965c-119a-11e2-ba83-a7a396e6=
b2a7_story.html" target=3D"_blank"><em>Ritholtz=E2=80=99s rules of investin=
g (part II)</em></a>.</p>
<p>Here’s an excerpt from the column:</p>
<blockquote><p>“This week, we=E2=80=99re going to pick up with my rul=
es for investing. These rules come from 20 years of experience =E2=80=93 or=
20 years of learning from my own mistakes. My list is designed to help you=
understand what you face as an investor and avoid the sorts of errors that=
cost many investors a lot of money. Understanding the philosophy here will=
result in fewer losses, better performance and more restful nights.</p>
<div>
<article>Because I didn=E2=80=99t want to overwhelm you, I broke the list i=
nto two parts. Before we get to this week=E2=80=99s list, you can <a href=
=3D"http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ritholtzs-rules-of-investing/201=
2/09/27/7c662e48-08c4-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_story.html" data-xslt=3D"_http=
">read the first part here</a>. Those six rules were:</p>
<blockquote><p>1. Cut your losers short, and let your winners run.<br />
2. Avoid predictions and forecasts<br />
3. Understand crowd behavior.<br />
4. Think like a contrarian.<br />
5. Asset allocation is crucial.<br />
6. Decide if you are an active or passive investor.</p></blockquote>
<p>Let=E2=80=99s move on to part two . . .<span style=3D"color: #ffffff;">&=
gt;</span></p>
</article>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p>For some reason, my WaPo print edition access is not working (if anyone =
can send that PDF, I’d appreciate it)<br />
<span style=3D"color: #ffffff;">></span><br />
<em></em></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Source</em>:<br />
<a href=3D"http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ritholtzs-rules-of-invest=
ing-part-ii/2012/10/12/0dc5965c-119a-11e2-ba83-a7a396e6b2a7_story.html" tar=
get=3D"_blank">Ritholtz=E2=80=99s rules of investing (part II)</a><br />
Barry Ritholtz<br />
Washington Post, October 14 2012 <br />http://wapo.st/R5J46a</p>
<p><a href=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr=
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order=3D"0" ismap=3D"true"></img></a><br/>
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/Qlx1I-rWA8NCGMY5EsAvajApycc/1/pa"><img src=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclic=
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er=3D"0" ismap=3D"true"></img></a></p><div class=3D"feedflare">
<a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:Jl=
JBj9984sM:yIl2AUoC8zA"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPi=
cture?d=3DyIl2AUoC8zA" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feed=
burner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:7Q72WNTAKBA"><img =
src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3D7Q72WNTAKBA" borde=
r=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture=
?a=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:dnMXMwOfBR0"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburn=
er.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3DdnMXMwOfBR0" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=
=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984=
sM:D7DqB2pKExk"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=
=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:D7DqB2pKExk" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"=
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:V=
_sGLiPBpWU"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3Dw=
OQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:V_sGLiPBpWU" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http=
://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:qj6ID=
K7rITs"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3Dqj6ID=
K7rITs" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/=
TheBigPicture?a=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:F7zBnMyn0Lo"><img src=3D"http://f=
eeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:F7zBnMyn0=
Lo" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheB=
igPicture?a=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:KwTdNBX3Jqk"><img src=3D"http://feeds=
.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:KwTdNBX3Jqk" =
border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPi=
cture?a=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:l6gmwiTKsz0"><img src=3D"http://feeds.fee=
dburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3Dl6gmwiTKsz0" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a h=
ref=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9=
984sM:gIN9vFwOqvQ"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPictur=
e?i=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984sM:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=
=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DwOQ9ROHhKs4:JlJBj9984=
sM:TzevzKxY174"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=
=3DTzevzKxY174" border=3D"0"></img></a>
</div><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~4/wOQ9ROHhK=
s4?utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail" height=3D"1" width=3D"1"/></=
div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=3D"margin-bottom:0;line-height:1.4em;">
<p style=3D"margin:1em 0 3px 0;">
<a name=3D"5" style=3D"font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:1=
8px;" href=3D"http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~3/mLGhWZPUVuQ/?=
utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail">10 Sunday Reads</a>
</p>
<p style=3D"font-size:13px;color:#555;margin:9px 0 3px 0;font-family:Georgi=
a,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-height:140%;font-size:13px;">
<span>Posted:</span> 14 Oct 2012 05:00 AM PDT</p>
<div style=3D"margin:0;font-family:Georgia,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-=
height:140%;font-size:13px;color:#000000;"><p>Some reads to start your Sund=
ay:</p>
<blockquote><p>=E2=80=A2=C2=A0R. Glenn Hubbard: Romney=E2=80=99s Go-To Econ=
omist (<a href=3D"http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/14/business/glenn-hubbard-=
is-romneys-go-to-economist.html?ref=3Dbusiness&pagewanted=3Dall" target=
=3D"_blank">NYT</a>)<br />
=E2=80=A2=C2=A0Mutual fund casinos still skimming billions (<a href=3D"http=
://www.marketwatch.com/story/mutual-fund-casinos-still-skimming-billions-20=
12-10-12" target=3D"_blank">MarketWatch</a>)<br />
=E2=80=A2 Rule #1. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you a=
nd move out of their way (<a href=3D"http://exp.lore.com/post/33398136889/1=
-surround-yourself-with-people-who-are-smarter" target=3D"_blank">Explore</=
a>)<br />
=E2=80=A2=C2=A0Surprise Jack Welch Missed Shows Better U.S. Growth (<a href=
=3D"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-12/surprise-jack-welch-missed-sho=
ws-better-u-s-growth-economy.html" target=3D"_blank">Bloomberg</a>)<br />
=E2=80=A2 A big shift in oil will bring price relief (<a href=3D"http://qz.=
com/14859/a-big-shift-in-oil-will-bring-price-relief/" target=3D"_blank">Qu=
artz</a>)<br />
=E2=80=A2 Law is going to be made=E2=80=99 in CalPERS=E2=80=99 challenge of=
Stockton =E2=80=93 even if it leads to the Supreme Court (<a href=3D"http:=
//www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/1cebecfe-1478-11e2-8ef2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz295=
wmGBb0" target=3D"_blank">Financial Times</a>)<br />
=E2=80=A2 Inside the Obama Campaign’s Hard Drive (<a href=3D"http://w=
ww.motherjones.com/politics/2012/10/harper-reed-obama-campaign-microtargeti=
ng?src=3Dlongreads" target=3D"_blank">MoJo</a>)<br />
=E2=80=A2 <span style=3D"text-decoration: underline;">Josh Barro</span>: Th=
e Final Word on Mitt Romney=E2=80=99s Tax Plan (<a href=3D"http://www.bloom=
berg.com/news/2012-10-12/the-final-word-on-mitt-romney-s-tax-plan.html" tar=
get=3D"_blank">Bloomberg</a>)<br />
=E2=80=A2 The Dangers of Allowing an Adversary Access to a Network (<a href=
=3D"http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/a-new-ipad-browser-surfs-the-w=
eb-so-you-dont-have-to/" target=3D"_blank">NYT</a>)<br />
=E2=80=A2=C2=A0Privacy Is Tough to Find on Facebook (<a href=3D"http://onli=
ne.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444165804578008740578200224.html" target=
=3D"_blank">WSJ</a>)</p></blockquote>
<p>What’s up?</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>=C2=A0J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo: Housing on Mend</strong><br /=
>
<a href=3D"http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/MI-BR796=
_JPMEAR_NS_20121012160903.jpg"><img class=3D"alignnone size-full wp-image-8=
4841" title=3D"MI-BR796_JPMEAR_NS_20121012160903" src=3D"http://www.ritholt=
z.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/MI-BR796_JPMEAR_NS_20121012160903.jpg=
" alt=3D"" width=3D"225" height=3D"336" /></a><br />
Source: <a href=3D"http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100008723963904437492045=
78052122736058676.html?mod=3DITP_businessandfinance_0" target=3D"_blank">WS=
J</a></p>
<p><a href=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr=
2uU/NO41yyaWE9UEfJbH3wM-BeRz4Po/0/pa"><img src=3D"https://feedads.g.doublec=
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er=3D"0" ismap=3D"true"></img></a></p><div class=3D"feedflare">
<a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7U=
AgB3kDrL4:yIl2AUoC8zA"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPi=
cture?d=3DyIl2AUoC8zA" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feed=
burner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:7Q72WNTAKBA"><img =
src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3D7Q72WNTAKBA" borde=
r=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture=
?a=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:dnMXMwOfBR0"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburn=
er.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3DdnMXMwOfBR0" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=
=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDr=
L4:D7DqB2pKExk"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=
=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:D7DqB2pKExk" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"=
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:V=
_sGLiPBpWU"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3Dm=
LGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:V_sGLiPBpWU" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http=
://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:qj6ID=
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K7rITs" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/=
TheBigPicture?a=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:F7zBnMyn0Lo"><img src=3D"http://f=
eeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:F7zBnMyn0=
Lo" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheB=
igPicture?a=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:KwTdNBX3Jqk"><img src=3D"http://feeds=
.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:KwTdNBX3Jqk" =
border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPi=
cture?a=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:l6gmwiTKsz0"><img src=3D"http://feeds.fee=
dburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3Dl6gmwiTKsz0" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a h=
ref=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3=
kDrL4:gIN9vFwOqvQ"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPictur=
e?i=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDrL4:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=
=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DmLGhWZPUVuQ:7UAgB3kDr=
L4:TzevzKxY174"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=
=3DTzevzKxY174" border=3D"0"></img></a>
</div><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~4/mLGhWZPUV=
uQ?utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail" height=3D"1" width=3D"1"/></=
div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=3D"margin-bottom:0;line-height:1.4em;">
<p style=3D"margin:1em 0 3px 0;">
<a name=3D"6" style=3D"font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:1=
8px;" href=3D"http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~3/BhsyH01ILbs/?=
utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail">The Most Beautiful Yacht in the=
World</a>
</p>
<p style=3D"font-size:13px;color:#555;margin:9px 0 3px 0;font-family:Georgi=
a,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-height:140%;font-size:13px;">
<span>Posted:</span> 14 Oct 2012 04:00 AM PDT</p>
<div style=3D"margin:0;font-family:Georgia,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-=
height:140%;font-size:13px;color:#000000;"><p>Lovely:</p>
<p><script src=3D"http://player.ooyala.com/player.js?embedCode=3D90dHI1Njod=
WA-oOYXc5MeeVWRhW03LdF&playerBrandingId=3D8a7a9c84ac2f4e8398ebe50c07eb=
2f9d&width=3D768&deepLinkEmbedCode=3D90dHI1NjodWA-oOYXc5MeeVWRhW0=
3LdF&height=3D432&thruParam_bloomberg-ui[popOutButtonVisible]=3DF=
ALSE"></script></p>
<p><a href=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr=
2uU/w3ES-qaRyVHY_FsGP41xTvq46Sk/0/pa"><img src=3D"https://feedads.g.doublec=
lick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr2uU/w3ES-qaRyVHY_FsGP41xTvq46Sk/0/pi" b=
order=3D"0" ismap=3D"true"></img></a><br/>
<a href=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr2uU=
/w3ES-qaRyVHY_FsGP41xTvq46Sk/1/pa"><img src=3D"https://feedads.g.doubleclic=
k.net/~a/zwUw_NJ6wYU6IHNng724Ydfr2uU/w3ES-qaRyVHY_FsGP41xTvq46Sk/1/pi" bord=
er=3D"0" ismap=3D"true"></img></a></p><div class=3D"feedflare">
<a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-=
Hv7CzAAfo:yIl2AUoC8zA"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPi=
cture?d=3DyIl2AUoC8zA" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feed=
burner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:7Q72WNTAKBA"><img =
src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3D7Q72WNTAKBA" borde=
r=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture=
?a=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:dnMXMwOfBR0"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburn=
er.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3DdnMXMwOfBR0" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=
=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAA=
fo:D7DqB2pKExk"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=
=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:D7DqB2pKExk" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"=
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:V=
_sGLiPBpWU"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DB=
hsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:V_sGLiPBpWU" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http=
://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:qj6ID=
K7rITs"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3Dqj6ID=
K7rITs" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/=
TheBigPicture?a=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:F7zBnMyn0Lo"><img src=3D"http://f=
eeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:F7zBnMyn0=
Lo" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheB=
igPicture?a=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:KwTdNBX3Jqk"><img src=3D"http://feeds=
.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?i=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:KwTdNBX3Jqk" =
border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPi=
cture?a=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:l6gmwiTKsz0"><img src=3D"http://feeds.fee=
dburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=3Dl6gmwiTKsz0" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a h=
ref=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7C=
zAAfo:gIN9vFwOqvQ"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPictur=
e?i=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAAfo:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border=3D"0"></img></a> <a href=
=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?a=3DBhsyH01ILbs:J-Hv7CzAA=
fo:TzevzKxY174"><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/TheBigPicture?d=
=3DTzevzKxY174" border=3D"0"></img></a>
</div><img src=3D"http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~4/BhsyH01IL=
bs?utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail" height=3D"1" width=3D"1"/></=
div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=3D"margin-bottom:0;line-height:1.4em;">
<p style=3D"margin:1em 0 3px 0;">
<a name=3D"7" style=3D"font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:1=
8px;" href=3D"http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~3/tUdHhj08Kcw/?=
utm_source=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail">Jack Welch’s Gaffe</a>
</p>
<p style=3D"font-size:13px;color:#555;margin:9px 0 3px 0;font-family:Georgi=
a,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-height:140%;font-size:13px;">
<span>Posted:</span> 14 Oct 2012 03:00 AM PDT</p>
<div style=3D"margin:0;font-family:Georgia,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-Serif;line-=
height:140%;font-size:13px;color:#000000;"><p style=3D"text-align: right;">=
Jack Welch=E2=80=99s <span style=3D"text-decoration: underline;">Gaffe</spa=
n><br />
Cumberland Advisors<br />
October 13, 2012</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<blockquote><p>=E2=80=9C=E2=80=98If I could write that tweet again, I would=
have added a few question marks at the end=E2=80=98 in order to =E2=80=98m=
ake it clear I was raising a question,=E2=80=99 he wrote. Still, he added, =
the dip in unemployment is =E2=80=98downright implausible.=E2=80=99=E2=80=
=9D=C2=A0 =E2=80=93 Bloomberg, reporting on Jack Welch=E2=80=99s now infamo=
us tweet about the employment report.</p></blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p>Welch=E2=80=99s original Twitter quote was: =E2=80=9CUnbelievable jobs n=
umbers. . . these Chicago guys will do anything. . . can=E2=80=99t debate s=
o change numbers.=E2=80=9D</p>
<p>Since his gaffe, Welch has been on the receiving end of ongoing criticis=
m.=C2=A0 Rightfully so, in our view.=C2=A0 Anyone remotely familiar with th=
e Bureau of Labor Statistics and its methods knows how impossible it would =
be to cook these numbers.</p>
<p>Furthermore, those engaged in the massive task of preparing employment s=
tatistics are true professionals and do their work without political partia=
lity.=C2=A0 Each of those 2000 folks may personally have a view on Obama or=
Romney, but it doesn=E2=80=99t color the monthly employment numbers.</p>
<p>The most disappointing thing about the Jack Welch affair is his continui=
ng belligerent stance.=C2=A0 He introduced the =E2=80=9Cquestion mark=E2=80=
=9D addition in an interview with Anderson Cooper of CNN.=C2=A0 I saw it an=
d watched Welch dig himself into an even deeper hole.=C2=A0 He repeated it =
in a CNN interview with Ali Velshi the next day.</p>
<p>Oh, Jack, why not just admit you made a mistake?</p>
<p>Our friend and regular fishing partner John Silvia has an excellent piec=
e on the Welch gaffe and the BLS activity.=C2=A0 John is quite skilled in t=
his statistical arena.=C2=A0 He has given us permission to link to Wells Fa=
rgo=E2=80=99s website so readers can view the details.=C2=A0 See the =E2=80=
=9C<a href=3D" https://www.wellsfargo.com/downloads/pdf/com/research/specia=
l_reports/Unemployment_Rate_Debate_10122012.pdf" target=3D"_blank">Unemploy=
ment Rate Debate</a>=E2=80=9D.</p>
<p>We thank John and hope readers find his words helpful.=C2=A0 John, in re=
turn you will get one of my special Chernobyl Ants in Jackson Hole or in Ma=
ine.</p>
<p>BTW, dear readers, if you know Jack Welch, please send him the link.</p>
<p>~~~</p>
<p><em>David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Cumberland Ad=
visors</em></p>
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