Yes, this is all about right. In the winter, my calibration will
change about 5 points when the bike goes from inside, to below
freezing outside. It takes mine at least 20 minutes to stabilize.
Ignore any data while you warm-up. Stop and recal after about 20min,
then data is good. Same rules apply when going from air conditioned
inside to sweltering heat outside. Obviously the cal numbers move in
opposite directions for each scenario. When you got the windows open
in the house, you should be able to calibrate and ride right away...
no temp change there.
The amount of watts per cal point increases with crank RPM, but most
of your time is spent in a norrow RPM band so the amount is pretty
constant. You mention 5W was about right for you. On my units (at my
cadence), it's about 6 or 7W.
All and all, your theory is sound... or at least it checks out with
everything I've seen!!