*[Enwl-eng] [can-eecca] Fwd: [climate justice now!] important! FT:Global carbon emissions stall in 2014
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Mar 16, 2015, 6:41:27 PM3/16/15
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dear friends and colleagues,
i've just been reading the FT, and there's an apparently important piece
by pilita clark, their environment editor, citing an IEA-report that
suggests that there has been *absolute decoupling* of GHG-emissions from
economic growth for the first time, well, ever. the article indeed mentions
the other instances when global emissions fell or stagnated, " There have
only been three times in four decades when emissions fell or stopped
rising, the agency said: after the oil price shock
<http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/papers/OilShockRoubiniSetser.pdf> and
US recession in the early 1980s; in 1992 after the collapse of the former
Soviet Union; and in 2009 during the global financial crisis", and suggests
that this is the first time that "global emissions of climate-warming
carbon dioxide did not rise last year for the first time in 40 years
without the presence of an economic crisis."
given the political and discursive battles in the run-up to paris - and
for us in germany, in the run-up to our major disobedient anti-coal action
in mid-august (reminder: we are planning to peacefully enter the open-cast
lignite mine in garzweiler, and blockade or occupy the diggers there, on
august 15), i'm sure that we all recognise the potential significance of
this. my questions to those somewhat more versed in detail than i am are
the following:
a. is this genuine? i'll be honest, i can't read IEA-reports without my
eyes glazing over, and things are too hectic in the run-up to the
blockupy-actions coming week, so i can't really work this out…
b. IF it is genuine, what are the 'comms-consequences' of this, for those
of us coming from an anti-capitalist perspective (or at least one that is
critical/sceptical of capitalism)? i can see two options, but none of them
yet convince me, and i'd be very happy to see new ones...
- to argue that this is a blip, caused by… what? the general relationship
between economic growth and GHG emissions remains, and total decoupling
remains highly unlikely. maybe (this would depend on what the numbers look
like to expert eyes) the IEA is not counting things like methane leakage in
the US, meaning that actually, we're likely to have seen an increase in
emissions, it's just that our ways of counting them haven't caught up to
new forms of extreme-energy-extraction?
- to celebrate this rare 'point of light', as birol makes it out to be,
and to point out that what we learn from this is that we need a rapid
phase-out of coal, never mind for now the question of economic growth in
general? (though this would clearly weaken our communication with respect
to, let's call it the naomi-connection between capitalism and the climate?)
c. what does this mean for our constant invocations of the 'rebound
effect'?
maybe this can be the subject of some interesting debates over dinner at
the wsf in tunis. looking forward to them, and to your answers.
best,
tadzio
March 12, 2015 10:06 pm
Global carbon emissions stall in 2014
Pilita Clark, Environment Correspondent
Author alerts
- Daily emailImmediate email
-
[image: The sun rises behind the billowing chimneys of a power station
in Berlin, November 27, 2013. REUTERS/Thomas Peter (GERMANY - Tags: ENERGY
ENVIRONMENT TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY) - RTX15ULZ]©Reuters
<http://www.ft.com/servicestools/terms/reuters>
Global emissions of climate-warming carbon dioxide did not rise last year
for the first time in 40 years without the presence of an economic crisis.
In a sign that efforts to tackle climate change
<http://www.ft.com/in-depth/climate-change> may have been more effective
than thought, the International Energy Agency <http://www.iea.org/> found
global emissions of carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gas, did not
rise in 2014.
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More
ON THIS STORY
- Q&A Why stable CO2 emissions are vital
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/828c8f08-c8d7-11e4-bc64-00144feab7de.html>
- Timeline Countdown to Paris
<http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2015/paris-climate-timeline/>
- Climate change in depth <http://www.ft.com/in-depth/climate-change>
- China must clean up its act, says minister
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/461d4b0e-c4c0-11e4-a2e0-00144feab7de.html>
- David Pilling Life in smog should spur China to action
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6d4fc154-c199-11e4-bd24-00144feab7de.html>
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“This is a real surprise. We have never seen this before,” said IEA chief
economist, Fatih Birol, named recently as the agency’s next executive
director.
Energy consumption shifts in China, the world’s biggest carbon polluter,
were among the reasons emissions stalled last year, according to the IEA,
which monitors energy trends.
There have only been three times in four decades when emissions fell or
stopped rising, the agency said: after the oil price shock
<http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/papers/OilShockRoubiniSetser.pdf> and
US recession in the early 1980s; in 1992 after the collapse of the former
Soviet Union; and in 2009 during the global financial crisis.
But last year, the global economy grew 3 per cent, while the amount of
CO2 pumped out remained at the 2013 level of 32.3bn tonnes.
In each previous case, a fall in demand led to production slowdowns at the
factories and power plants that are a leading cause of carbon dioxide
emissions
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/828c8f08-c8d7-11e4-bc64-00144feab7de.html>,
which have been growing by an average 2.4 per cent a year over the last
decade.
Q&A
* Why static CO2 emissions are important
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/828c8f08-c8d7-11e4-bc64-00144feab7de.html> *
[image: Superstorm Sandy brought havoc to the eastern seaboard of the US in
October 2012. The ferocious hurricane heightened awareness of the threat
posed by climate change]
IEA figures show a rise emissions can be slowed while economic growth
continues
Continue reading
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/828c8f08-c8d7-11e4-bc64-00144feab7de.html>
The IEA is to publish its findings in detail in a June 15 report advising
governments what energy measures should be agreed at a Paris meeting in
December where world leaders are due to finalise a global climate change
pact <http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2015/paris-climate-timeline/>.
“There could not be better news for Paris,” Mr Birol, one of the most
authoritative voices in the energy industry, told the Financial Times.
China has cut its use of coal
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8fc13792-c31d-11e4-ac3d-00144feab7de.html>, one
of the biggest sources of carbon emissions, and installed more
hydroelectricity, wind and solar power.
At the same time, electricity consumption, which had been growing at 10 per
cent a year, has fallen to about 3-4 per cent as China imposes energy
efficiency standards for industry, shuts older factories and shifts away
from the heavy manufacturing that has powered its economic growth.
[image: CO2-emissions-data]
Another reason for the halt in emissions is that wealthy countries in the
OECD group of nations that aims to promote sustainable growth have started
to “decouple” economic expansion from emissions increases, as they install
more renewable energy plants and set stricter standards for everything from
car fuel economy to home appliance energy use.
In the past five years, OECD countries’ economies grew nearly 7 per cent
while their emissions fell 4 per cent, the IEA has found.
This has happened because of policy measures that governments must enhance
in a Paris agreement if the world is to avoid a potentially dangerous 2C of
warming from pre-industrial times, Mr Birol warned.
FT series
* A world without water <http://www.ft.com/indepth/world-without-water> *
[image: A world without water]
Pilita Clark won ‘Specialist Journalist of the Year‘ for her investigation
into how businesses are having to adapt to rising water costs around the
world
Read more <http://www.ft.com/indepth/world-without-water>
Otherwise, the halt in emissions growth could prove just “a temporary
bright point in an otherwise alarming trend”, he said.
This is especially important in fast-growing economies that are home to the
1.2bn people without access to electricity globally, including India.
Many plan to build highly polluting coal-fired power plants, locking in the
risk of rising emissions for decades.
Climate scientists say it will be much easier and cheaper to avoid 2C of
warming if global carbon emissions are stabilised quickly.
But because CO2 is such a long-lasting greenhouse gas, emissions must
eventually be brought to near zero, an issue that is already dividing
countries
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c542393c-7dbf-11e4-bb0a-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk>
in
the run-up to the Paris talks.
March 12, 2015 10:06 pm
Q&A: Why static CO2 emissions are important
Pilita Clark, Environment Correspondent
Author alerts
- Daily emailImmediate email
-
[image: NORTHWICH, UNITED KINGDOM - DECEMBER 30: Low temperatures
intensfy the steam emissions from the Ineos Enterprises brine purification
plant on December 30, 2014 in Northwich, United Kingdom. The site supplies
brine to the local ash plant owned by Tata and other Ineos chemical plants
in Runcorn.The area around Northwich has been exploited for its salt since
Roman times. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)]©Getty
<http://www.ft.com/servicestools/terms/getty>
The International Energy Agency has found that, for the first time in 40
years, annual global emissions of carbon dioxide
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f56f0d2-c8cc-11e4-8617-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk>
did
not rise in 2014 even though the global economy grew.
*Why is this important?*
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More
ON THIS STORY
- Global carbon emissions stall in 2014
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f56f0d2-c8cc-11e4-8617-00144feab7de.html>
- Timeline Countdown to Paris
<http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2015/paris-climate-timeline/>
- Climate change in depth <http://www.ft.com/in-depth/climate-change>
- China must clean up its act, says minister
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/461d4b0e-c4c0-11e4-a2e0-00144feab7de.html>
- David Pilling Life in smog should spur China to action
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6d4fc154-c199-11e4-bd24-00144feab7de.html>
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Scientists say carbon dioxide emissions from the trucks, cars, factories
and electricity plants that power the world’s economies are a chief
reason global
temperatures
<http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf> have
risen nearly 1C from pre-industrial times.
World leaders agreed nearly four years ago that warming should be limited
to no more than 2C to avoid potentially dangerous climate change
<http://www.ft.com/in-depth/climate-change>. But emissions generally rise
in line with economic growth and have only fallen or remained static three
times in the past 40 years, always as a result of a big financial or
economic crisis, the IEA says.
Most countries, especially those still trying to catch up with wealthier,
industrialised nations, are reluctant to do anything that would jeopardise
their economic expansion.
This is one of the reasons why 20 years of UN climate negotiations
<http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2015/paris-climate-timeline/> have failed to
produce a meaningful global agreement on lowering emissions.
[image: CO2-emissions-data]
But the IEA figures prove emissions growth can slow while economic growth
continues, raising hopes that the 2C target might be more achievable than
thought.
*Why did emissions stay flat last year*?
The IEA says it was mostly because of shifts in energy use in the world’s
three biggest carbon dioxide emitters
<http://infographics.pbl.nl/website/globalco2/>: China, the US and the EU.
China has imposed energy efficiency standards on industry, cut its
consumption of coal and increased its use of hydroelectricity, wind power
and solar electricity.
Wealthier countries, many of which started promoting low carbon
technologies much earlier, have also installed more renewable power and
boosted energy efficiency. Some, such as the US, have also shifted from
coal to cleaner gas as a result of the shale revolution.
*[image: CO2-emissions-data]*
*Does this mean we don’t have to worry about climate change any more?*
No. For one thing, we don’t know how long emissions will stay flat. The
world’s fourth biggest emitter is India, home to a large share of the 1.2bn
people
<http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/Global-Tracking-Framework-Report>
in
the world without access to electricity. If it solves this dilemma by
building dozens more coal-fired power stations, a leading source of carbon
pollution, that would make it harder to keep global emissions stable.
The larger problem, however, is that scientists say it is not enough to
simply stabilise emissions. Because CO2 is such a long-lasting greenhouse
gas, what has already been emitted accumulates in the atmosphere, pushing
up concentrations of carbon dioxide that in 2013 rose above 400 parts per
million
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e00ba374-b9a4-11e2-bc57-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk>,
the highest level in millions of years.
It is those concentrations that have to be capped or lowered to limit
warming and that means emissions eventually have to fall drastically.
[image: CO2-emissions-data]
There is still uncertainty about exactly how much temperatures are likely
to rise as carbon concentrations rise.
But the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the leading
authority on global warming, estimated in its most recent report
<http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf>last
year that to have an even chance of keeping warming to no more than 2C, the
world cannot emit more than a total of about 1,000 gigatonnes of CO2 form
2014 onwards.
With emissions running at 30Gt a year, that so-called carbon budget is
likely to be eaten up by 2040. If this happens, emissions would have to
drop to zero immediately afterwards to avoid dangerous levels of climate
change. That is why the IEA and many climate experts are urging tough
action now to steer the world’s energy system on to a lower emissions path.
*[image: CO2-emissions-data]*
*How will governments respond to news of a slowdown in emissions?*
We will see at the end of this year when world leaders meet in Paris to
finalise a global climate change agreement aiming at a permanent reduction
in emissions.
The IEA’s findings offer some hope that policies encouraging cleaner
electricity, cars and factories are starting to work. But the Paris
agreement will have to ensure such measures are maintained and enhanced if
climate change is to be addressed and that is still likely to prove a big
challenge.
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From: Mueller, Tadzio <muel...@rosalux.de>
Date: 2015-03-15 23:38 GMT+07:00
Subject: [climate justice now!] important! FT: Global carbon emissions
stall in 2014
\From: "Andrey Laletin" <lale...@gmail.com>
\Sent: Monday, March 16, 2015 7:42 AM
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carbon emissions stall in 2014
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i've just been reading the FT, and there's an apparently important piece
by pilita clark, their environment editor, citing an IEA-report that
suggests that there has been *absolute decoupling* of GHG-emissions from
economic growth for the first time, well, ever. the article indeed mentions
the other instances when global emissions fell or stagnated, " There have
only been three times in four decades when emissions fell or stopped
rising, the agency said: after the oil price shock
<http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/papers/OilShockRoubiniSetser.pdf> and
US recession in the early 1980s; in 1992 after the collapse of the former
Soviet Union; and in 2009 during the global financial crisis", and suggests
that this is the first time that "global emissions of climate-warming
carbon dioxide did not rise last year for the first time in 40 years
without the presence of an economic crisis."
given the political and discursive battles in the run-up to paris - and
for us in germany, in the run-up to our major disobedient anti-coal action
in mid-august (reminder: we are planning to peacefully enter the open-cast
lignite mine in garzweiler, and blockade or occupy the diggers there, on
august 15), i'm sure that we all recognise the potential significance of
this. my questions to those somewhat more versed in detail than i am are
the following:
a. is this genuine? i'll be honest, i can't read IEA-reports without my
eyes glazing over, and things are too hectic in the run-up to the
blockupy-actions coming week, so i can't really work this out…
b. IF it is genuine, what are the 'comms-consequences' of this, for those
of us coming from an anti-capitalist perspective (or at least one that is
critical/sceptical of capitalism)? i can see two options, but none of them
yet convince me, and i'd be very happy to see new ones...
- to argue that this is a blip, caused by… what? the general relationship
between economic growth and GHG emissions remains, and total decoupling
remains highly unlikely. maybe (this would depend on what the numbers look
like to expert eyes) the IEA is not counting things like methane leakage in
the US, meaning that actually, we're likely to have seen an increase in
emissions, it's just that our ways of counting them haven't caught up to
new forms of extreme-energy-extraction?
- to celebrate this rare 'point of light', as birol makes it out to be,
and to point out that what we learn from this is that we need a rapid
phase-out of coal, never mind for now the question of economic growth in
general? (though this would clearly weaken our communication with respect
to, let's call it the naomi-connection between capitalism and the climate?)
c. what does this mean for our constant invocations of the 'rebound
effect'?
maybe this can be the subject of some interesting debates over dinner at
the wsf in tunis. looking forward to them, and to your answers.
best,
tadzio
March 12, 2015 10:06 pm
Global carbon emissions stall in 2014
Pilita Clark, Environment Correspondent
Author alerts
- Daily emailImmediate email
-
[image: The sun rises behind the billowing chimneys of a power station
in Berlin, November 27, 2013. REUTERS/Thomas Peter (GERMANY - Tags: ENERGY
ENVIRONMENT TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY) - RTX15ULZ]©Reuters
<http://www.ft.com/servicestools/terms/reuters>
Global emissions of climate-warming carbon dioxide did not rise last year
for the first time in 40 years without the presence of an economic crisis.
In a sign that efforts to tackle climate change
<http://www.ft.com/in-depth/climate-change> may have been more effective
than thought, the International Energy Agency <http://www.iea.org/> found
global emissions of carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gas, did not
rise in 2014.
-
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More
ON THIS STORY
- Q&A Why stable CO2 emissions are vital
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/828c8f08-c8d7-11e4-bc64-00144feab7de.html>
- Timeline Countdown to Paris
<http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2015/paris-climate-timeline/>
- Climate change in depth <http://www.ft.com/in-depth/climate-change>
- China must clean up its act, says minister
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/461d4b0e-c4c0-11e4-a2e0-00144feab7de.html>
- David Pilling Life in smog should spur China to action
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6d4fc154-c199-11e4-bd24-00144feab7de.html>
Sign up now <http://www.ft.com/nbe>
[image: firstFT] <http://www.ft.com/nbe>
*First*FT is our new essential daily email briefing of the best stories
from across the web
“This is a real surprise. We have never seen this before,” said IEA chief
economist, Fatih Birol, named recently as the agency’s next executive
director.
Energy consumption shifts in China, the world’s biggest carbon polluter,
were among the reasons emissions stalled last year, according to the IEA,
which monitors energy trends.
There have only been three times in four decades when emissions fell or
stopped rising, the agency said: after the oil price shock
<http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/papers/OilShockRoubiniSetser.pdf> and
US recession in the early 1980s; in 1992 after the collapse of the former
Soviet Union; and in 2009 during the global financial crisis.
But last year, the global economy grew 3 per cent, while the amount of
CO2 pumped out remained at the 2013 level of 32.3bn tonnes.
In each previous case, a fall in demand led to production slowdowns at the
factories and power plants that are a leading cause of carbon dioxide
emissions
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/828c8f08-c8d7-11e4-bc64-00144feab7de.html>,
which have been growing by an average 2.4 per cent a year over the last
decade.
Q&A
* Why static CO2 emissions are important
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/828c8f08-c8d7-11e4-bc64-00144feab7de.html> *
[image: Superstorm Sandy brought havoc to the eastern seaboard of the US in
October 2012. The ferocious hurricane heightened awareness of the threat
posed by climate change]
IEA figures show a rise emissions can be slowed while economic growth
continues
Continue reading
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/828c8f08-c8d7-11e4-bc64-00144feab7de.html>
The IEA is to publish its findings in detail in a June 15 report advising
governments what energy measures should be agreed at a Paris meeting in
December where world leaders are due to finalise a global climate change
pact <http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2015/paris-climate-timeline/>.
“There could not be better news for Paris,” Mr Birol, one of the most
authoritative voices in the energy industry, told the Financial Times.
China has cut its use of coal
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8fc13792-c31d-11e4-ac3d-00144feab7de.html>, one
of the biggest sources of carbon emissions, and installed more
hydroelectricity, wind and solar power.
At the same time, electricity consumption, which had been growing at 10 per
cent a year, has fallen to about 3-4 per cent as China imposes energy
efficiency standards for industry, shuts older factories and shifts away
from the heavy manufacturing that has powered its economic growth.
[image: CO2-emissions-data]
Another reason for the halt in emissions is that wealthy countries in the
OECD group of nations that aims to promote sustainable growth have started
to “decouple” economic expansion from emissions increases, as they install
more renewable energy plants and set stricter standards for everything from
car fuel economy to home appliance energy use.
In the past five years, OECD countries’ economies grew nearly 7 per cent
while their emissions fell 4 per cent, the IEA has found.
This has happened because of policy measures that governments must enhance
in a Paris agreement if the world is to avoid a potentially dangerous 2C of
warming from pre-industrial times, Mr Birol warned.
FT series
* A world without water <http://www.ft.com/indepth/world-without-water> *
[image: A world without water]
Pilita Clark won ‘Specialist Journalist of the Year‘ for her investigation
into how businesses are having to adapt to rising water costs around the
world
Read more <http://www.ft.com/indepth/world-without-water>
Otherwise, the halt in emissions growth could prove just “a temporary
bright point in an otherwise alarming trend”, he said.
This is especially important in fast-growing economies that are home to the
1.2bn people without access to electricity globally, including India.
Many plan to build highly polluting coal-fired power plants, locking in the
risk of rising emissions for decades.
Climate scientists say it will be much easier and cheaper to avoid 2C of
warming if global carbon emissions are stabilised quickly.
But because CO2 is such a long-lasting greenhouse gas, emissions must
eventually be brought to near zero, an issue that is already dividing
countries
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c542393c-7dbf-11e4-bb0a-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk>
in
the run-up to the Paris talks.
March 12, 2015 10:06 pm
Q&A: Why static CO2 emissions are important
Pilita Clark, Environment Correspondent
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[image: NORTHWICH, UNITED KINGDOM - DECEMBER 30: Low temperatures
intensfy the steam emissions from the Ineos Enterprises brine purification
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brine to the local ash plant owned by Tata and other Ineos chemical plants
in Runcorn.The area around Northwich has been exploited for its salt since
Roman times. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)]©Getty
<http://www.ft.com/servicestools/terms/getty>
The International Energy Agency has found that, for the first time in 40
years, annual global emissions of carbon dioxide
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f56f0d2-c8cc-11e4-8617-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk>
did
not rise in 2014 even though the global economy grew.
*Why is this important?*
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More
ON THIS STORY
- Global carbon emissions stall in 2014
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f56f0d2-c8cc-11e4-8617-00144feab7de.html>
- Timeline Countdown to Paris
<http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2015/paris-climate-timeline/>
- Climate change in depth <http://www.ft.com/in-depth/climate-change>
- China must clean up its act, says minister
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/461d4b0e-c4c0-11e4-a2e0-00144feab7de.html>
- David Pilling Life in smog should spur China to action
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6d4fc154-c199-11e4-bd24-00144feab7de.html>
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Scientists say carbon dioxide emissions from the trucks, cars, factories
and electricity plants that power the world’s economies are a chief
reason global
temperatures
<http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf> have
risen nearly 1C from pre-industrial times.
World leaders agreed nearly four years ago that warming should be limited
to no more than 2C to avoid potentially dangerous climate change
<http://www.ft.com/in-depth/climate-change>. But emissions generally rise
in line with economic growth and have only fallen or remained static three
times in the past 40 years, always as a result of a big financial or
economic crisis, the IEA says.
Most countries, especially those still trying to catch up with wealthier,
industrialised nations, are reluctant to do anything that would jeopardise
their economic expansion.
This is one of the reasons why 20 years of UN climate negotiations
<http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2015/paris-climate-timeline/> have failed to
produce a meaningful global agreement on lowering emissions.
[image: CO2-emissions-data]
But the IEA figures prove emissions growth can slow while economic growth
continues, raising hopes that the 2C target might be more achievable than
thought.
*Why did emissions stay flat last year*?
The IEA says it was mostly because of shifts in energy use in the world’s
three biggest carbon dioxide emitters
<http://infographics.pbl.nl/website/globalco2/>: China, the US and the EU.
China has imposed energy efficiency standards on industry, cut its
consumption of coal and increased its use of hydroelectricity, wind power
and solar electricity.
Wealthier countries, many of which started promoting low carbon
technologies much earlier, have also installed more renewable power and
boosted energy efficiency. Some, such as the US, have also shifted from
coal to cleaner gas as a result of the shale revolution.
*[image: CO2-emissions-data]*
*Does this mean we don’t have to worry about climate change any more?*
No. For one thing, we don’t know how long emissions will stay flat. The
world’s fourth biggest emitter is India, home to a large share of the 1.2bn
people
<http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/Global-Tracking-Framework-Report>
in
the world without access to electricity. If it solves this dilemma by
building dozens more coal-fired power stations, a leading source of carbon
pollution, that would make it harder to keep global emissions stable.
The larger problem, however, is that scientists say it is not enough to
simply stabilise emissions. Because CO2 is such a long-lasting greenhouse
gas, what has already been emitted accumulates in the atmosphere, pushing
up concentrations of carbon dioxide that in 2013 rose above 400 parts per
million
<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e00ba374-b9a4-11e2-bc57-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk>,
the highest level in millions of years.
It is those concentrations that have to be capped or lowered to limit
warming and that means emissions eventually have to fall drastically.
[image: CO2-emissions-data]
There is still uncertainty about exactly how much temperatures are likely
to rise as carbon concentrations rise.
But the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the leading
authority on global warming, estimated in its most recent report
<http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf>last
year that to have an even chance of keeping warming to no more than 2C, the
world cannot emit more than a total of about 1,000 gigatonnes of CO2 form
2014 onwards.
With emissions running at 30Gt a year, that so-called carbon budget is
likely to be eaten up by 2040. If this happens, emissions would have to
drop to zero immediately afterwards to avoid dangerous levels of climate
change. That is why the IEA and many climate experts are urging tough
action now to steer the world’s energy system on to a lower emissions path.
*[image: CO2-emissions-data]*
*How will governments respond to news of a slowdown in emissions?*
We will see at the end of this year when world leaders meet in Paris to
finalise a global climate change agreement aiming at a permanent reduction
in emissions.
The IEA’s findings offer some hope that policies encouraging cleaner
electricity, cars and factories are starting to work. But the Paris
agreement will have to ensure such measures are maintained and enhanced if
climate change is to be addressed and that is still likely to prove a big
challenge.
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From: Mueller, Tadzio <muel...@rosalux.de>
Date: 2015-03-15 23:38 GMT+07:00
Subject: [climate justice now!] important! FT: Global carbon emissions
stall in 2014
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