*[Enwl-eng] Climate Change Seen to Affect Human Capacity to Work
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Mar 15, 2013, 2:36:32 PM3/15/13
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*Climate Change Is Cutting Humans' Work Capacity*
* Published: February 24th, 2013
By Lauren Morello
It's not just the heat, it's the humidity that gets you.
That's the conclusion of a new study that finds climate change has
reduced humanity's ability to work by making the planet hotter and muggier.
That one-two punch has already cut the world's working capacity by 10
percent since humans began burning large amounts of oil, gas, coal and
other fossil fuels at the start of the Industrial Revolution, found the
analysis, which was published Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change.
By 2200, heat and increased humidity would hamper people's ability to
work to less than 40 percent of their capacity.
Researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
predict that dive will continue, reshaping daily life in the most
populated areas of the planet as climate change intensifies.
By 2050, a combination of rising heat and humidity is likely to cut the
world's labor capacity to 80 percent during summer months --- twice the
effect observed today.
"The planet will start experiencing heat stress unlike anything
experienced today," said study co-author Ron Stouffer, a climate modeler
at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. "The world is entering
a very different environment, and the impact of that on labor will be
significant."
Those calculations don't take into effect the relief offered by air
conditioning. They do assume people will take other measures to beat the
heat --- working or exercising in early morning, early evening or even
nighttime, seeking shade and wearing clothing that helps maximize their
ability to stay cool.
The analysis is based on the effect of changes in "wet bulb" temperatures.
Unlike the air temperatures most people are familiar with, wet bulb
readings account for humidity and wind speed as well as temperature.
That's important because high humidity can make it harder for people to
cool themselves by sweating, increasing the likelihood of heat-related
illness.
To determine whether climate change had already affected people's
ability to work the new study's authors calculated wet-bulb temperature
readings for today's climate and compared them to pre-industrial conditions.
Then, using a NOAA climate model, the researchers projected how
conditions would change over the next two centuries for people who are
active in environments without air conditioning.
By mid-century, they found, climate change is poised to cut work
capacity during summer months by 20 percent, compared to pre-industrial
levels --- twice the effect observed in today's world.
Credit: World Preservation Foundation
Fifty years later, in 2100, that effect would double again if the world
does not find a way to reduce its carbon dioxide output. Humans' work
capacity would drop to just 63 percent during the hottest months of the
year.
Zoom another 100 years forward, to 2200, and the Earth's average
temperature would be 11°F hotter than it was before the Industrial
Revolution. Scorching heat and increased humidity would slash people's
ability to work to less than 40 percent of their full capacity each summer.
Across much of the U.S., a nasty combination of heat and humidity would
create "heat stress beyond what is experienced in the world today," said
the study's lead author, John Dunne, a NOAA research oceanographer.
"This illustrates the stark consequences of extreme warming for the
tropics and the mid-latitudes, where most people live."
In the Lower Mississippi Valley, conditions would prevent any safe level
of sustained work, the new study found. That's equivalent to the most
severe rating --- "black flag" --- on the scale the U.S. military uses
to determine safe levels of activity for its troops.
In Washington, D.C., conditions would reach the "yellow flag" level on
the military scale, the point at which outdoor activities and work
"should be curtailed as much as possible," according to one Navy handout.
Industrial guidelines for preventing heat stress under those conditions
recommend working "25 percent on, 75 percent off" --- resting three
times as long a period as a person labors each hour.
Finding a way to slash the world's carbon dioxide output later this
century would blunt climate's impact on work capacity but not eliminate
the effect, the researchers found.
If society can stabilize the level of CO2 in the atmosphere by early
next century, and hold warming to just less than 3°F by 2100, Earth's
tropics and mid-latitudes would experience months each year of "extreme
heat stress," the study said.
The combined heat and humidity in Washington, D.C., would be more
stressful than conditions in today's New Orleans. New Orleans, in turn,
would experience more heat stress than Bahrain does now. And in Bahrain
--- an island in the Persian Gulf where temperatures already hit 120°F
in summer months --- heat stress would creep close to the limit that
humans can endure for more than a few hours at a time.
Even under that "better case" emissions scenario, Washington, D.C., and
New York City would both "well exceed" the heat stress of present-day
Bahrain by 2200, the researchers found.
Experts who were not involved with the research praised it as a solid,
sobering analysis.
"This is an excellent study that draws upon existing work on heat stress
and combines it with climate model projections of the future to bring
home the point that 'global warming' means, among other things, that it
will get quite hot and wet in many places," said Matthew Huber, a
climatologist at Purdue University.
Huber, who has published work examining the limits of humans' ability to
tolerate high heat and humidity, said the study suggests that economic
models used to project the economic toll of climate change may be
underestimating its financial impacts.
Another researcher who has looked specifically at the effects of climate
change on occupational health and productivity, Ingvar Holmér of the
University of Lund, Sweden, noted that the wet-bulb globe temperature
index the new study's authors used was developed in the U.S. and Europe
and has not been extensively tested in Africa and Asia. But it is likely
the best of all available options, said Holmer, who called the new study
well-written.
The wet-bulb index "forms a reasonably good basis for this type of
calculation because it is well-known and simple," he said.
Thomas Bernard, a professor of public health at the University of South
Florida, said it's clear that "you're going to have a loss of
productivity as the temperatures go up."
"That's a good, valid, kind of irrefutable message," said Bernard, who
studies heat stress management. "If (the study's authors) want to argue
that there is an economic cost, I think they're on strong ground."
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-is-cutting-humans-work-capacity-study-finds-15654
*** NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this
material is distributed, without profit, for research and educational
purposes only. ***
From: "Yahoo Newsgroups" <vasi...@ramapo.edu>
Sent: Sunday, March 03, 2013 4:25 AM
Subject: News: Climate Change Seen to Affect Human Capacity to Work
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* Published: February 24th, 2013
By Lauren Morello
It's not just the heat, it's the humidity that gets you.
That's the conclusion of a new study that finds climate change has
reduced humanity's ability to work by making the planet hotter and muggier.
That one-two punch has already cut the world's working capacity by 10
percent since humans began burning large amounts of oil, gas, coal and
other fossil fuels at the start of the Industrial Revolution, found the
analysis, which was published Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change.
By 2200, heat and increased humidity would hamper people's ability to
work to less than 40 percent of their capacity.
Researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
predict that dive will continue, reshaping daily life in the most
populated areas of the planet as climate change intensifies.
By 2050, a combination of rising heat and humidity is likely to cut the
world's labor capacity to 80 percent during summer months --- twice the
effect observed today.
"The planet will start experiencing heat stress unlike anything
experienced today," said study co-author Ron Stouffer, a climate modeler
at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. "The world is entering
a very different environment, and the impact of that on labor will be
significant."
Those calculations don't take into effect the relief offered by air
conditioning. They do assume people will take other measures to beat the
heat --- working or exercising in early morning, early evening or even
nighttime, seeking shade and wearing clothing that helps maximize their
ability to stay cool.
The analysis is based on the effect of changes in "wet bulb" temperatures.
Unlike the air temperatures most people are familiar with, wet bulb
readings account for humidity and wind speed as well as temperature.
That's important because high humidity can make it harder for people to
cool themselves by sweating, increasing the likelihood of heat-related
illness.
To determine whether climate change had already affected people's
ability to work the new study's authors calculated wet-bulb temperature
readings for today's climate and compared them to pre-industrial conditions.
Then, using a NOAA climate model, the researchers projected how
conditions would change over the next two centuries for people who are
active in environments without air conditioning.
By mid-century, they found, climate change is poised to cut work
capacity during summer months by 20 percent, compared to pre-industrial
levels --- twice the effect observed in today's world.
Credit: World Preservation Foundation
Fifty years later, in 2100, that effect would double again if the world
does not find a way to reduce its carbon dioxide output. Humans' work
capacity would drop to just 63 percent during the hottest months of the
year.
Zoom another 100 years forward, to 2200, and the Earth's average
temperature would be 11°F hotter than it was before the Industrial
Revolution. Scorching heat and increased humidity would slash people's
ability to work to less than 40 percent of their full capacity each summer.
Across much of the U.S., a nasty combination of heat and humidity would
create "heat stress beyond what is experienced in the world today," said
the study's lead author, John Dunne, a NOAA research oceanographer.
"This illustrates the stark consequences of extreme warming for the
tropics and the mid-latitudes, where most people live."
In the Lower Mississippi Valley, conditions would prevent any safe level
of sustained work, the new study found. That's equivalent to the most
severe rating --- "black flag" --- on the scale the U.S. military uses
to determine safe levels of activity for its troops.
In Washington, D.C., conditions would reach the "yellow flag" level on
the military scale, the point at which outdoor activities and work
"should be curtailed as much as possible," according to one Navy handout.
Industrial guidelines for preventing heat stress under those conditions
recommend working "25 percent on, 75 percent off" --- resting three
times as long a period as a person labors each hour.
Finding a way to slash the world's carbon dioxide output later this
century would blunt climate's impact on work capacity but not eliminate
the effect, the researchers found.
If society can stabilize the level of CO2 in the atmosphere by early
next century, and hold warming to just less than 3°F by 2100, Earth's
tropics and mid-latitudes would experience months each year of "extreme
heat stress," the study said.
The combined heat and humidity in Washington, D.C., would be more
stressful than conditions in today's New Orleans. New Orleans, in turn,
would experience more heat stress than Bahrain does now. And in Bahrain
--- an island in the Persian Gulf where temperatures already hit 120°F
in summer months --- heat stress would creep close to the limit that
humans can endure for more than a few hours at a time.
Even under that "better case" emissions scenario, Washington, D.C., and
New York City would both "well exceed" the heat stress of present-day
Bahrain by 2200, the researchers found.
Experts who were not involved with the research praised it as a solid,
sobering analysis.
"This is an excellent study that draws upon existing work on heat stress
and combines it with climate model projections of the future to bring
home the point that 'global warming' means, among other things, that it
will get quite hot and wet in many places," said Matthew Huber, a
climatologist at Purdue University.
Huber, who has published work examining the limits of humans' ability to
tolerate high heat and humidity, said the study suggests that economic
models used to project the economic toll of climate change may be
underestimating its financial impacts.
Another researcher who has looked specifically at the effects of climate
change on occupational health and productivity, Ingvar Holmér of the
University of Lund, Sweden, noted that the wet-bulb globe temperature
index the new study's authors used was developed in the U.S. and Europe
and has not been extensively tested in Africa and Asia. But it is likely
the best of all available options, said Holmer, who called the new study
well-written.
The wet-bulb index "forms a reasonably good basis for this type of
calculation because it is well-known and simple," he said.
Thomas Bernard, a professor of public health at the University of South
Florida, said it's clear that "you're going to have a loss of
productivity as the temperatures go up."
"That's a good, valid, kind of irrefutable message," said Bernard, who
studies heat stress management. "If (the study's authors) want to argue
that there is an economic cost, I think they're on strong ground."
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-is-cutting-humans-work-capacity-study-finds-15654
*** NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this
material is distributed, without profit, for research and educational
purposes only. ***
From: "Yahoo Newsgroups" <vasi...@ramapo.edu>
Sent: Sunday, March 03, 2013 4:25 AM
Subject: News: Climate Change Seen to Affect Human Capacity to Work
------------- * ENWL * ------------
Ecological North West Line * St. Petersburg, Russia
Independent Environmental Net Service: http://www.bellona.ru/enwl/
Russian: ENWL(discussions), ENWL-inf(FSU information), ENWL-misc(any topics)
English: ENWL-eng (world information)
en...@lew.spb.org, enwl...@lew.spb.org, en...@lew.spb.org, en...@lew.spb.org
Subscription, Moderator: vf...@lew.spb.org or en...@enw.net.ru
Archive: http://enwl.bellona.ru/pipermail/
and http://groups.google.com/group/enwl/
SEE ALSO: http://www.bellona.org (English)and http://www.bellona.ru
(Russian)
RSS: http://groups.google.ru/group/enwl/feeds?hl=ru
(C) Please refer to exclusive articles of ENWL
-------------------------------------
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