*[Enwl-eng] The big problem with electric cars
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No images? Click here  The world is behind on almost every policy required to cut emissions and limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Coal power must be phased out seven times faster, deforestation reduced four times faster, and bus and subway networks built around six times faster according to the State of Climate Action 2023 report. Out of 42 measures of progress towards net zero emissions, humanity is only on track with one: electric vehicle (EV) sales. Globally, the share of EVs in passenger car sales has risen by 65% a year on average – up from 1.6% of sales in 2018 to 10% in 2022. But even this silver lining has a tarnish according to experts. You're reading the Imagine newsletter – a weekly synthesis of academic insight on solutions to climate change, brought to you by The Conversation. I'm Jack Marley, energy and environment editor. This week, we're analysing the latest figures on humankind's efforts to bend the curve of climate-heating emissions. The report assessed different indicators of climate action according to where they need to be in 2030 to preserve the 1.5°C goal. Six were heading in the right direction but too slowly, such as the increasing share of zero-carbon sources in power generation (39% in 2022 with a goal of 88%-91% by 2030). Twenty-four were well off track, such as red meat consumption in regions where people eat a lot, like North America and Europe. And six were heading in the wrong direction, such as the carbon intensity of steel manufacturing. Despite being the only measure on track, soaring EV sales disguise a deeper problem according to Laura Lander and Grazia Todeschini, engineering experts at King's College London. Nearly half (40%) of all EVs sold in 2022 were sports utility vehicles (SUVs). "There’s an issue with this. Larger and heavier EVs require bigger batteries to power them. In fact, the battery of an SUV can be double the size of that in a smaller vehicle," they say. Bigger batteries need more raw materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel. In the case of SUVs versus smaller EVs, the difference can be 75% more minerals extracted from the environment, Lander and Toddeschini say. Research has warned of possible shortages in the supply of these battery materials. SUV market dominance could mean there is 55% less lithium and 8% less nickel and manganese than is needed to meet demand for EV batteries and other renewable technologies by 2030. And then there are the greenhouse gas emissions associated with making bigger cars. "For example, the CO₂ emissions resulting from materials processing and battery manufacturing can soar to levels 70% higher for electric SUVs compared to smaller EVs," Lander and Todeschini add. Public transport gets people from A to B using finite resources far more efficiently. Worldwide, the equivalent of three New York City subway systems must be built in cities across the world each year this decade to put the world on track for its 2030 target, the report says. According to Vera O'Riordan, a PhD candidate in transport policy at University College Cork, cutting emissions from the transport sector will also involve avoiding journeys where possible (with better urban planning so amenities are closer to home) and making it easier for people to get out of their car and walk, cycle or skate. "While years of investment into roads have made it very difficult for some cities to move away from car use, the future is still unwritten for many of our growing cities," O'Riordan says. The good kind of tipping points The cleaner air and healthier lifestyles that such changes could produce hint at the spin-off benefits of climate action which we're only beginning to see says Sebastien Chastin, a professor of health behaviour dynamics at Glasgow Caledonian University. "There is a cascading effect," he says. Less air pollution prevents millions of premature deaths and boosts crop yields. Renovating buildings to make them more energy-efficient and emit less (a measure of climate action that was deemed to be well off track in the recent report) could create 5.4 million jobs worldwide for specialists according to one estimate. But for every one of these new "green jobs", 4.2 other new jobs could be created according to the London School of Economics. "The value of these parallel benefits often equals or exceeds the cost of climate actions. But the net benefit of climate actions and their constructive, rather than disruptive, potential is too often disregarded," Chastin says. The State of Climate Action 2023 report notes that some of its indicators of climate action could suddenly take off, just as EV sales have done since 2018, and follow an S-curve trajectory. For instance, solar and wind power may shortly hit an inflection point beyond which installation rates become exponential. In other words, a tipping point is reached and the low-carbon alternative to the fossil fuelled option is rapidly established as the norm. Social scientists have argued that this needn't be a passive process. People can influence the rate at which these transitions happen – and even accelerate them. "As people observe their neighbours installing rooftop solar panels they might be more inclined to do so themselves. This effect could cause a shift in cultural and social norms," say Matthew Carl Ives, Penny Mealy and Thom Wetzer, economists at the University of Oxford. But it's worth remembering that not all of these climate solutions are subject to how quickly people adopt new technologies. Public financing for fossil fuels is one of the indicators of climate action most off track in the recent report. Fortunately, public opinion can also shift radically in unpredictable ways, especially in light of collective experiences like historic extreme weather. These social tipping points can upend political reality according to Sonia Graham, an environmental geographer at the University of Wollongong in Australia. "The status quo is very well entrenched and shifts away from it rarely happen without significant pushback," she says. "But it can happen – especially in times of crisis, as the COVID pandemic demonstrated. Three years ago, many of us shifted to working from home – and the change happened remarkably quickly. Changing back to working in the office every day is turning out to be much harder than first thought." - Jack Marley, Environment commissioning editor Thanks for emailing us your thoughts about Just Stop Oil last week. Reader comment of the week 💬
Dave Butt This week, we'd like to hear your questions about COP28, the UN climate summit which will kick off two weeks from now in Dubai. Was this email forwarded to you? Join the 20,000 people who get one email every week about the most important issue of our time. Subscribe to Imagine.  Why surging sales of large electric vehicles raises environmental red flags More and more motorists are opting for bigger EVs – but there are several environmental concerns to consider.  Electric cars aren’t enough to hit climate targets: we need to develop better public transport too From buses in Bogotá to cycling through Cambridge, we can learn valuable lessons from how countries across the world deliver sustainable transport.  Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse Climate change is going to bring social change. Will it drive ever-faster efforts to stave off the worst – or trigger social upheavals making it harder for us to respond?  How the spin-off benefits of climate action will improve life for everyone As well as helping to save the planet, climate action provides huge opportunities to enhance people's health, security and economic prospects.  Tip the planet: tackling climate change with small, sensitive interventions A rapid transition from fossil fuels is possible by targeting the 'tipping points' in our political and economic systems.  With many countries planning fossil fuel production increases and continuing subsidies, negotiators have their work cut out for them when the COP28 climate summit begins. Latest from The Conversation on climate change
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