*[Enwl-eng] Who heatwaves hit hardest

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Jul 20, 2023, 11:05:05 AM7/20/23

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It’s been hard to keep up with all the heatwaves this week. China has had its highest ever temperature of 52.2°C, and records are being threatened right across southern Europe. An airport in Iran clocked a “feels like” temperature of 66°C thanks to intense heat combined with very humid air from the nearby Persian Gulf. Much of the US is being blasted by extreme heat and Phoenix, Arizona, has had 19 consecutive days above 110°F (43.3°C), while tourists are gathering in Death Valley, California, which may soon break the all-time world temperature record.

You’re reading the Imagine newsletter – a weekly synthesis of academic insight on solutions to climate change, brought to you by The Conversation. I’m Will de Freitas, Energy & Environment Editor of The Conversation, covering for my colleague Jack Marley who is in Italy (and not enjoying the 40°C weather). This week, we’ll look at extreme heat and how it is experienced in extremely different ways depending on where people are, what they do, and what resources they have access to.

We know that things are getting worse. In a piece on the current European heatwave, Emma Hill and Ben Vivian point out that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change data “shows an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events since the 1950s. A separate analysis of European heatwaves [by Czech scientists] revealed an increasing severity of such events over the past two decades.”

The climate models may even be underestimating the likelihood of the very hottest days. Oxford climate scientist Matthew Patterson recently looked at five decades of data and found that “north-west Europe has seen its hottest days warm by around 0.6℃ per decade – double the rate at which the region’s average summer days have warmed”. Another climate scientist, writing about “statistically impossible” heatwaves that have happened recently, says that “policymakers across the globe should prepare for exceptional heatwaves that would be deemed implausible based on current records”.

But these heat extremes do not affect everyone equally. Right now, 50°C is a lot more disastrous for builders in Iran or elderly people in Sicily, for instance, than it is for Death Valley climate catastrophe tourists in air conditioned cars.

Laurie Parsons is a geographer who studies the socio-economic impact of climate change. He says heat stress is a matter of inequality and the risk is “unevenly spread”:

People living in poorer neighbourhoods face a higher risk of heat stress (when the body struggles to regulate its internal temperature) than those living in richer ones, relatively disadvantaged people are more likely to acquire health problems from excess heat than those who are not. This is due to several intersecting factors, from poorer overall health and hotter working conditions – often involving more physical labour outdoors – to fewer trees and parks in less wealthy areas and fewer homes with air conditioning and good insulation.

Research by academics in Australia can give us a sense of which workers might be most affected by a heatwave. They looked at ten years of compensation claims during extremely hot temperatures in the city of Adelaide and found workers at higher risk included:

animal and horticultural workers
cleaners
food service workers
metal workers
warehouse workers.

It’s fairly obvious why those groups are at risk: they either work outdoors, or do heavy physical work indoors, often in already hot environments. What’s less obvious is why older people are at such risk.

Hill and Vivian mention two of Europe’s worst so-called “natural” disasters of this century: “In 2003, a heatwave swept across Europe, claiming the lives of over 70,000 people. Then, in 2022, another heatwave hit Europe, resulting in the deaths of almost 62,000 people.” A study published in Nature Medicine this month found that people aged 80 or more made up more than half (36,848) of the 2022 deaths across the continent. Parsons notes that of the 3,271 excess deaths in the UK, “most occurred in care homes”.

Public health researchers Sarah Cunningham and Sharon Rutherford suggest this is partly down to physiology:

As we get older, we tend to not “feel” the heat as much even though our bodies are less able to handle the heat. This contradiction can have lethal consequences, especially during periods of extreme heat.

They highlight some key reasons we’re more susceptible to heat as we get older including:

bodily changes: older people are less able to lose excess heat through their skin
social isolation: many older people live alone or don’t have anyone checking on them
medical conditions: conditions such as heart failure and diabetes are more common with age and are associated with increased heat risk.

So if we know which demographics and occupations are most at risk, what can we do about it? (Other than “stop emitting carbon”, obviously.)

Parsons, the geographer, suggests that “Things as simple as a fan or a break from work can prevent heat deaths.” The public health researchers also mention regular drinks and cold showers, and opening windows when they’re facing away from the sun and otherwise keeping blinds drawn, among other things.

But as Parsons says, “being able to access even these basic measures is unequally distributed”. To help workers, he suggests:

Labour statutes must be rewritten to combat heat stress, including maximum working temperatures and longer breaks on the very hot days that are an increasingly common feature of the UK’s climate.

And that’s just in the UK, where we have relatively little exposure to the most dangerous temperatures. Other places will have to do even more. Ultimately it looks like almost every country in the world will have to adapt to at least some dangerously hot weather.

Parsons again:

Policy action at every level of political and social life is necessary, including wages, housing, healthcare and adult social care. Since heat deaths are an expression of economic inequality, no form of climate adaptation is likely to be more effective than making poor people less poor.

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