Ukraine's 'extremely weak' climate ambition may soon
rise
Jean Chemnick, E&E News reporter
Published: Thursday,
September 26, 2019
Ukraine's position on climate action is
complicated.
Thirty years ago, the Eastern European country involuntarily
made one of
the largest contributions to climate mitigation ever when the
Soviet
Union it was part of collapsed — and with it its industrial base
and
economy.
But as urgency around the world's response to climate
change has
intensified in recent years, Ukraine and other post-Soviet
countries
have maintained they deserve room to grow their emissions as
they
rebuild their economies.
Ukraine's nationally determined
contribution, or NDC, to the Paris
Agreement called for reducing emissions at
least 40% compared with 1990
levels by 2030. That's identical to the European
Union's commitment,
which is considered one of the world's
strongest.
But Ukraine in 1990 was one of the world's highest-emitting
countries,
responsible for 880 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. In
2017, it
released 310 megatons, about 0.7% of the world's
emissions.
"If you compare [the Ukrainian NDC] to 1990, it's of course
one of the
strongest," said Oldag Caspar, who does work in Ukraine for
Germanwatch.
"If you compare it to actual emissions, it's one of the
weakest."
Caspar said Ukraine has traditionally maintained that its
people have
paid for their country's current low emissions levels with
substantial
economic suffering. They should be credited against future
obligations.
But the tide in Ukraine may be turning. A confluence of
economic and
political factors, together with climate concerns, have led the
country
to seek alternatives to coal and natural gas, and raised interest
in
aligning renewable energy and climate objectives more closely with
the
European Union.
Ukraine was one of the first countries to submit a
low-carbon pathway
for 2050 to the United Nations last year. But it wasn't
very ambitious.
It promised only to cut emissions in half by midcentury, when
scientists
say the world's emissions should be net zero.
Irina
Stavchuk, executive director of the Centre for Environmental
Initiatives, the
country's largest environmental nongovernmental
organization, acknowledged
that the 2030 target was "extremely weak."
But she noted that it was produced
and presented to the Ukrainian
government by experts from the U.N.
Development Programme.
"The country was just in the middle of the strong
war with Russia, so it
was communicated as 'we cannot take higher obligations
in this
uncertainty,'" said Stavchuk in an email to E&E News.
But
Ukrainian and international environmentalists asserted that the
conflict with
Russia over the annexation of Crimea makes energy
efficiency and renewable
energy development more urgent, not less.
Russia indirectly supplies a
substantial portion of Ukraine's gas. And
when delegates were gathered
outside Paris in December 2015 to complete
work on the climate deal, Ukraine
faced a winter with no coal supplies
from Russia or the occupied areas to
provide heat.
In a letter to the U.N. climate body in 2015, environmental
groups noted
that UNDP gave the Ukrainian government four options for its
2015 Paris
pledge, which ranged from a 7% to 43% increase in emissions
between 2012
and 2030.
"We consider the [intended nationally
determined contribution] proposal
developed by the UNDP office in Ukraine for
consideration of government
as misleading, politically biased and one, which
does not contribute to
transition of Ukraine to low carbon development," the
letter states.
The NGOs noted that existing Ukrainian energy law is much
more
ambitious. Climate Action Tracker, a watchdog group that assesses
the
ambition of Paris commitments, rates Ukraine's pledge
"critically
insufficient." But it makes the same point: that if Ukraine
simply
carries out policies that are already on the books, it
will
substantially overachieve its climate commitment.
The U.S. Agency
for International Development provided the Ukrainian
government with support
for its 2050 decarbonization strategy, which it
submitted to the U.N. climate
body in July 2018.
"Although they tried to do the process as inclusively
as possible, so
all experts and NGOs could participate, for policymakers it
was
something additional to existing, officially approved
strategy
documents," said Stavchuk.
The 2050 strategy shows one way
the country could develop, she said.
Ukraine has the capacity to develop
with an increased focus on renewable
energy, Caspar said. It has land to
install wind power and solar
equipment, and has even begun exporting wind
turbines to the European
Union.
"Renewable energy is seen in Ukraine
as something not only modern and
future-driven — especially by the younger
generation, of course, and the
younger generation of decisionmakers and
experts and journalists and so
on — but it's also seen as something European,
and something which opens
the door to Brussels and to a better and more
intense relationship with
the E.U.," he said.
Ukraine's new president,
Volodymyr Zelensky, has been in the news this
week for his July phone call
with President Trump, in which Trump asked
him to investigate the son of
former Vice President and Democratic
presidential front-runner Joe
Biden.
Zelensky was elected earlier this year, and some of his policy
positions
are still unclear. But greens see hopeful signs. For one thing,
Ukraine
confirmed at a U.N. climate gathering in New York City on Monday that
it
would strengthen its NDC next year. It's one of only 59 countries
that
have agreed to do so.
Stavchuk said the process of revising the
NDC began early this year. It
will use as its baseline a newly approved
energy strategy that skews
more closely to Ukraine's current emissions, she
said.
"So the NDC should be more ambitious than the previous one,"
said
Stavchuk.
Another hopeful sign, Caspar said, has to do with
Stavchuk herself. If
confirmed by Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers today, the
environmentalist
will become the nation's new deputy minister of energy and
the
environment. Her boss, the minister, hails from the country's
largest
renewable energy trade association.
"The Energy Ministry was
famous for being the coal ministry, and nuclear
as well, but mostly coal,"
said Caspar. "This is a signal."
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