Bonn,
27/04/2022 - Up to 40 % of the
planet’s land is degraded, directly affects half
of humanity, threatens roughly half of global GDP
(US$44 trillion)
If
business as usual continued through 2050, report
projects additional degradation of an area almost
the size of South America
Nations’
current pledge to restore 1 billion degraded
hectares by 2030 requires $US 1.6 trillion this
decade – a fraction of annual $700 billion in
fossil fuel and agricultural subsidies
As
food prices soar amid rapid climate and other
planetary changes, “crisis footing” needed to
conserve, restore and use land
sustainably
Most
comprehensive report on topic ever released
shortly before UNCCD’s COP15 in Africa
The
way land resources – soil, water and biodiversity
– are currently mismanaged and misused threatens
the health and continued survival of many species
on Earth, including our own, warns a stark new
report from the United Nations Convention to
Combat Desertification (UNCCD).
It
also points decision makers to hundreds of
practical ways to effect local, national and
regional land and ecosystem restoration.
UNCCD’s
evidence-based flagship Global
Land Outlook
2 (GLO2) report, five
years in development with 21 partner
organizations, and with over 1,000 references, is
the most comprehensive consolidation of
information on the topic ever assembled.
It
offers an overview of unprecedented breadth and
projects the planetary consequences of three
scenarios through 2050: business as usual,
restoration of 50 million square km of land, and
restoration measures augmented by the conservation
of natural areas important for specific ecosystem
functions.
It
also assesses the potential contributions of land
restoration investments to climate change
mitigation, biodiversity conservation, poverty
reduction, human health and other key sustainable
development goals.
Warns
the report: “At no other point in modern history
has humanity faced such an array of familiar and
unfamiliar risks and hazards, interacting in a
hyper-connected and rapidly changing world. We
cannot afford to underestimate the scale and
impact of these existential threats.”
“Conserving,
restoring, and using our land resources
sustainably is a global imperative, one that
requires action on a crisis footing…Business as
usual is not a viable pathway for our continued
survival and prosperity.”
GLO2
offers hundreds of examples from around the world
that demonstrate the potential of land
restoration. It is being released before the
UNCCD’s 15th session of the Conference of Parties
to be held in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire (COP15, 9-20
May).
Says
Ibrahim Thiaw, Executive Secretary of the UNCCD:
“Modern agriculture has altered the face of the
planet more than any other human activity.
We need to urgently rethink our global food
systems, which are responsible for 80% of
deforestation, 70% of freshwater use, and the
single greatest cause of terrestrial biodiversity
loss.”
“Investing
in large-scale land restoration is a powerful,
cost-effective tool to combat desertification,
soil erosion, and loss of agricultural
production. As a finite resource and our
most valuable natural asset, we cannot afford to
continue taking land for granted.”
Future
scenarios
The
report predicts the outcomes by 2050 and risks
involved under three scenarios:
Baseline:
Business as usual, continuing current trends in
land and natural resource degradation, while
demands for food, feed, fiber, and bioenergy
continue to rise. Land management practices and
climate change continue to cause widespread soil
erosion, declining fertility and growth in yields,
and the further loss of natural areas due to
expanding agriculture.
By
2050:
- 16
million square kilometers show continued land
degradation (the size of South America)
- A
persistent, long-term decline in vegetative
productivity is observed for 12-14% of
agricultural, pasture and grazing land, and
natural areas – with sub-Saharan Africa worst
affected.
- An
additional 69 gigatonnes of carbon is emitted
from 2015 to 2050 due to land use change and
soil degradation This represents 17% of
current annual greenhouse gas emissions: soil
organic carbon (32 gigatonnes), vegetation (27
gigatonnes), peatland degradation/conversion (10
gigatonnes).
Restoration:
Assumes the restoration of around 5 billion
hectares (50 million square kilometers or 35% of
the global land area) using measures such as
agroforestry, grazing management, and assisted
natural regeneration. (Current international
pledges: 10 million square kilometers).
By
2050:
- Crop
yields increase by 5-10% in most developing
countries compared to the baseline. Improved
soil health leads to higher crop yields, with
the largest gains in the Middle East and North
Africa, Latin America, and subSaharan Africa,
limiting food price increases.
- Soil
water holding capacity would increase by 4% in
rainfed croplands.
- Carbon
stocks rise by a net 17 gigatonnes between 2015
and 2050 due to gains in soil carbon and reduced
emission
- Biodiversity
continues to decline, but not as quickly, with
11% of biodiversity loss averted.
Restoration
and Protection: This scenario includes
the restoration measures, augmented with
protection measures of areas important for
biodiversity, water regulation, conservation of
soil and carbon stocks, and provision of critical
ecosystem functions.
By
2050:
- An
additional 4 million square kilometers of
natural areas (the size of India and Pakistan);
largest gains expected in South and Southeast
Asia and Latin America. Protections would
prevent land degradation by logging, burning,
draining, or conversion.
- About
a third of the biodiversity loss projected in
the baseline would be prevented
- An
additional 83 gigatonnes of carbon are stored
compared to the baseline. Avoided emission
and increased carbon storage would be equivalent
to more than seven years of total current global
emissions.
See
below for additional scenario projections and
information
Other
key points in the report include:
- $US
44 trillion – roughly half the world’s annual
economic output – is being put at risk by the
loss of finite natural capital and nature’s
services, which underpin human and environmental
health by regulating climate, water, disease,
pests, waste and air pollution, while providing
numerous other benefits such as recreation and
cultural benefits.
- The
economic returns of restoring land and reducing
degradation, greenhouse gas emissions and
biodiversity loss could be as high as $US
125-140 trillion every year - up to 50% more
than the $93 trillion global GDP in 2021
- Repurposing
in the next decade just $US 1.6 trillion of the
annual $700 billion in perverse subsidies given
to the fossil fuel and agricultural industries
would enable governments to meet current pledges
to restore by 2030 some 1 billion degraded
hectares – an area the size of the USA or China
– including 250 million hectares of farmland
- Restoring
land, soils, forests and other ecosystems would
contribute more than one-third of the
cost-effective climate change mitigation needed
to limit global warming to 1.5°C while
supporting biodiversity conservation, poverty
reduction, human health and other key
sustainable development goals
- Many
traditional and modern regenerative food
production practices can enable agriculture to
pivot from being the primary cause of
degradation to the principal catalyst for land
and soil restoration
- Poor
rural communities, smallholder farmers, women,
youth, Indigenous Peoples, and other at-risk
groups are disproportionately affected by
desertification, land degradation, and drought.
At the same time, traditional and local
knowledge of Indigenous Peoples and local
communities, proven land stewards, represent a
vast store of human and social capital that must
be respected and can be used to protect and
restore natural capital
- Immediate
financial support is needed to fund conservation
and restoration in those developing countries
with a greater share of the global distribution
of intact, biodiverse, and carbon-rich
ecosystems
- Restoration
projects and programs tend to have long-term
multiplier effects that strengthen rural
economies and contribute to wider regional
development. They generate jobs that cannot be
outsourced, and investments stimulate demand
that benefits local economies and communities
- Bringing
together national action plans currently siloed
under the UNCCD, Convention on Biological
Diversity, and UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change represents an immediate
opportunity to align targets and commitments to
implement land restoration, realize multiple
benefits, and maximize returns on investment
- Land
and resource rights, secured through enforceable
laws and trusted institutions, can transform
underperforming land assets into sustainable
development opportunities, helping maintain
equitable and cohesive societies
- Inclusive
and responsible land governance, including
tenure security, is an effective way to balance
trade-offs and harness synergies that optimize
restoration outcomes
- Grasslands
and savannas are productive, biodiverse
ecosystems that match forests both in their
global extent and their need for protection and
restoration. Equally important are wetlands,
which are in long-term decline averaging losses
at three times the rate of global forest loss in
recent decades. Sustaining their capacity to
absorb and store carbon is key to a
climate-resilient future
- Intensive
monocultures and the destruction of forests and
other ecosystems for food and commodity
production generate the bulk of carbon emissions
associated with land use change
- If
current land degradation trends continue, food
supply disruptions, forced migration, rapid
biodiversity loss and species extinctions will
increase, accompanied by a higher risk of
zoonotic diseases like COVID-19, declining human
health, and land resource conflicts
GLO2
offers hundreds of good practice snapshots from
around the world that illustrate context-specific
measures to combat environmental degradation,
restore land health, and improve living
conditions.
Many
regenerative agriculture practices have the
potential to increase crop yields and improve
their nutritional quality while reducing
greenhouse gas emissions and drawing down carbon
from the atmosphere, it says.
Examples
include rewilding – reducing the human footprint
to allow natural ecological processes to
re-establish themselves – in the Greater Côa
Valley in northern Portugal and the Iberá wetlands
in Argentina; drought preparedness and risk
reduction through national programmes in Mexico,
the USA, and Brazil; sand and dust storm source
mitigation in Iraq, China, and Kuwait; and
gender-responsive land restoration in Mali,
Nicauragua, and Jordan. There are also cases of
integrated flood and drought strategies as well as
forest landscape restoration using high-value
crops.
Good
practices can involve terrace and contour farming,
conserving and restoring watersheds, and rainwater
harvesting and storage. In addition to their
economic benefits, these measures improve
water retention and availability, prevent soil
erosion and landslides, reduce flood risk,
sequester carbon, and protect biodiversity
habitat.
Africa’s Great
Green Wall, meanwhile, which aims to restore
the continent’s degraded landscapes, exemplifies
“a regional restoration initiative that embraces
an integrated approach with the promise of
transforming the lives of millions of people,”
says the report.
“The
case studies from around the world showcased in
GLO2 make clear that land restoration can be
implemented in almost all settings and at many
spatial scales, suggesting that every country can
design and implement a tailored land restoration
agenda to meet their development needs,” says Mr.
Thiaw.
Many
of the cases, he adds, underscore the value of
education, training, and capacity building, not
just for local communities, but also for
government officials, land managers, and
development planners. Linking local engagement to
national policies and budgets will help ensure a
responsive and well-aligned restoration agenda
that delivers tangible outcomes for people,
nature, and the climate.
Preventing,
halting, and reversing the degradation of
ecosystems worldwide is the focus of the UN Decade
on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030), which calls
for a broad and balanced response, addressing all
ecosystems and their connectivity to reestablish a
healthy landscape mosaic. These efforts are
closely aligned with SDG target 15.3, which calls
on countries to strive to achieve Land Degradation
Neutrality (LDN) by 2030.
“Hope
remains as the decade of restoration has begun,”
says Mr. Thiaw. “Now is the time to harness
political will, innovation, and collective action
to restore our land and soil for short-term
recovery and long-term regeneration to ensure a
more stable and resilient future.”
By
the numbers, GLO2:
- 50%:
Proportion of humanity affected by land
degradation
- $US
7-30: benefits returned for every dollar
invested in restoring degraded land
- Four:
planetary boundaries (used to define a ‘safe
operating space for humanity’) already exceeded:
climate change, biodiversity loss, land use
change, and geochemical cycles, breaches
directly linked to human-induced
desertification, land degradation, and drought
- 40%+:
global land area occupied by agriculture
- 15%:
proportion of the $US 700 billion paid out in
commercial subsidies each year that positively
impact natural capital, biodiversity, long-term
job stability, or livelihoods
- 70%+:
Tropical forest cleared for agriculture between
2013 and 2019 in violation of national laws or
regulations
- 1%:
Farms that control more than 70% of the world’s
agricultural land
- 80%:
Farms smaller than two hectares, representing
12% of total farmland
- 50%:
Reduction of degraded land by 2040 pledged by
G20 leaders in November 2020
- 115+:
countries that had made quantitative, area-based
commitments by the end of 2021, collectively a
pledge to restore 1 billion hectares of farms,
forests, and pastures
- 100+:
Countries with plans for Land Degradation
Neutrality (LDN) by 2030: ‘frameworks for
action’ by local and national authorities, civil
society, and the private sector
- 130:
Countries that reaffirmed in
the Glasgow Leaders Declaration on
Forests and Land Use (Nov. 2021) their
respective individual and collective commitments
under the three Rio Conventions – on
Desertification (UNCCD), Biological Diversity
(CBD), and Climate Change (UNFCCC), supported by
unprecedented corporate and donor pledges. It
also includes commitments to facilitate trade
and development policies that avoid
deforestation and land degradation, especially
regarding internationally-traded agricultural
commodities, such as beef, soy, palm oil, and
timber.
Land
degradation: The persistent or
long-term loss of land-based natural capital. It
gives rise to poverty, hunger, and environmental
pollution, while making communities more
vulnerable to disease and disasters like drought,
floods, or wildfires. This is especially true in
the drylands that cover more than 45% of the
Earth’s land surface, home to one in three
people.
Land
restoration: A continuum of
sustainable land and water management practices
that can be applied to conserve or ‘rewild’
natural areas, ‘up-scale’ nature-positive food
production in rural landscapes, and ‘green’ urban
areas, infrastructure, and supply chains.
Regenerative
land use practices employed to boost soil health
or recharge groundwater also enhance our ability
to cope with drought, floods, wildfires, and sand
and dust storms.
Comments
“The
second edition of the Global Land Outlook is a
must-read for the biodiversity community. The
future of biodiversity is precarious. We have
already degraded nearly 40 % and altered 70 % of
the land. We cannot afford to have another “lost
decade” for nature and need to act now for a
future of life in harmony with nature. The GLO2
shows pathways, enablers and knowledge that we
should apply to effectively implement the
post-2020 Global Biodiversity
Framework.”
Elizabeth
Mrema, Executive Secretary, UN
Convention on Biological Diversity
“Land
is the operative link between biodiversity loss
and climate change, and therefore must be the
primary focus of any meaningful intervention to
tackle these intertwined crises. Restoring
degraded land and soil provides fertile ground
on which to take immediate and concerted
action.”
Andrea
Meza Murillo, Deputy Executive Secretary,
UNCCD
“As
a global community we can no longer rely on
incremental reforms within traditional planning
and development frameworks to address the
profound development and sustainability
challenges we are facing in coming decades. A
rapid transformation in land use and management
practices that place people and nature at the
center of our planning is needed,
prioritizing job creation and building vital
skill sets while giving voice to women and youth
who have been traditionally marginalized from
decision making.”
Nichole
Barger, report steering committee
member, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary
Biology, University of Colorado,
USA
“Just
as COVID-19 vaccines were developed, tested, and
rolled out at unprecedented speed and scale, so
too must land restoration and other nature-based
solutions be undertaken to prevent further
environmental decline and ensure a healthy and
prosperous future. We can reduce the risk
of zoonotic disease transmission, increase food
and water security, and improve human health and
livelihoods by managing, expanding, and
connecting protected and natural areas,
improving soil, crop, and livestock health in
food systems, and creating green and blue spaces
in and around cities.”
Barron
Orr, Lead Scientist, UNCCD
“Restoring
long term health and productivity in food
landscapes is a top priority to ensure future
sustainability. Much as an investor uses
financial capital to generate profits,
regenerating a forest or improving soil health
provides returns in the form of a future supply
of timber or food.”
Louise
Baker, Director, Global Mechanism,
UNCCD
“Indigenous
Peoples and local communities are proven land
stewards. The recognition of their rights and
their involvement in the long-term management of
their lands and of protected areas will be vital
to success.”
Miriam
Medel, Chief, External Relations,
Policy and Advocacy, UNCCD
“By
designing an innovative, customized land
restoration agenda that suits their needs,
capacities, and circumstances, countries and
communities can recover lost natural resources
and better prepare for climate change and other
looming threats.”
Johns
Muleso Kharika, Chief, Science,
Technology and Innovation, UNCCD
GLO2:
Baseline Scenario projections
By
2050:
- 16
million square kilometers show continued land
degradation (the size of South America)
- A
persistent, long-term decline in vegetative
productivity is observed for 12-14% of
agricultural, pasture and grazing land, and
natural areas – with sub-Saharan Africa worst
affected.
- An
additional 69 gigatonnes of carbon is emitted
from 2015 to 2050 due to land use change and
soil degradation This represents 17% of
current annual greenhouse gas emissions: soil
organic carbon (32 gigatonnes), vegetation (27
gigatonnes), peatland degradation/conversion (10
gigatonnes).
- A
slowing in the growth of agricultural yields
While agricultural yields are still projected to
rise in all regions, land degradation will curb
increases, especially in the Middle East, North
Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America.
The loss of soil organic carbon and the soil’s
ability to hold water and nutrients, such as
phosphorus or nitrogen, will be primarily
responsible for this slowing, while the
associated risks of drought and water scarcity
are expected to increase.
- The
demand for food, expected to rise by 45% between
2015 and 2050, will have to be met by further
intensification and expansion of agricultural
land, resulting in the further loss of 3 million
square kilometers of natural areas (the size of
India), mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin
America.
- Other
contemporary scenario analyses explicitly
consider factors such as environmental
governance, land distribution, and access to
resources.
- Restoration
Scenario projections
The
restoration scenario assumes that land restoration
is done on a massive scale – across a potential 50
million square kilometers (5 billion hectares)
with measures such as:
- Conservation
agriculture (low- or no-till farming)
- Agroforestry
and silvopasture (combining trees with crops,
livestock, or both)
- Improved
grazing management and grassland rehabilitation
- Forest
plantations
- Assisted
natural regeneration
- Cross-slope
barriers to prevent soil erosion
The
restoration scenario envisions these measures
applied to roughly 16 million square kilometers of
cropland, 22 million of grazing land, and 14
million of natural areas. Sub-Saharan Africa and
Latin America are estimated to have the largest
areas with the potential for land restoration.
Compared
to the baseline scenario, restoration means by
2050:
- Crop
yields increase by 5-10% in most developing
countries compared to the baseline Improved soil
health leads to higher crop yields, with the
largest gains in the Middle East and North
Africa, Latin America, and subSaharan Africa,
limiting food price increases.
- Soil
water holding capacity would increase by 4% in
rainfed croplands.
- Carbon
stocks rise by a net 17 gigatonnes between 2015
and 2050 due to gains in soil carbon and reduced
emissions. This is the balance of a net
increase in soil organic carbon, increased
carbon in agroforestry, and a continued loss of
vegetation carbon due to land conversion. It
does not account for the potential carbon
storage gains above ground from forest
restoration. Soil carbon stocks would be 55
gigatonnes larger in 2050 compared to the
baseline, with the largest gains in Russia,
Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Latin America,
while the biggest losses would be avoided in
sub-Saharan Africa.
- Slowed
biodiversity decline and loss of natural
areas. Globally, the extent of natural
areas continues to decline due to the expansion
of agricultural and urban areas, except in Latin
America where natural areas are projected to
increase by 3%. Biodiversity would continue to
decline, but not as quickly, with 11% of
biodiversity loss averted.
Restoration
and Protection Scenario projections
This
scenario includes the restoration measures,
augmented with protection measures expanded to
cover close to half of the Earth’s land surface by
2050 – a threefold increase on the current
coverage. These protected areas are important for
biodiversity, water regulation, conservation of
soil and carbon stocks, and provision of critical
ecosystem functions.
However,
significantly increasing the extent of protected
land would limit the expansion of agriculture.
Under this constraint, current yields would have
to be 9% higher by 2050 than in the baseline
scenario to meet expected demand. Nonetheless,
food prices are projected to increase,
particularly in South and Southeast Asia, where a
scarcity of agricultural land is already impacting
food security.
Under
this scenario, most of the new protected areas
would have to be in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin
America. When compared to the baseline, the
restoration and protection scenario means by
2050:
- An
additional 4 million square kilometers of
natural areas (the size of India and
Pakistan). With the largest gains expected
in South and Southeast Asia and Latin America,
protected areas would prevent land degradation
by logging, burning, draining, or conversion.
- While
biodiversity would continue to decline, about a
third of the loss projected in the baseline
would be prevented under restoration and
protection measures.
- An
additional 83 gigatonnes are stored compared to
the baseline. Avoided emission and
increased carbon storage would be equivalent to
more than seven years of total current global
emissions.
Additional
resources:
The
global potential for land restoration: Scenarios
for the Global Land Outlook 2
https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/the-global-potential-for-land-restoration-scenarios-for-the-global-landoutlook-2
Restoration
Commitments and Scenarios Goals and Commitments
for the Restoration Decade: A global overview of
countries’ restoration commitments under the Rio
Conventions and other pledges
https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/goals-and-commitments-for-the-restoration-decade
Notes
to editors
An
interactive media launch will be webcast from the
UNCCD Secretariat in Bonn, Germany, on Wednesday
April 27, at 9 am US EDT / 3 p.m. CEST (check
local time here).
Images,
video (credit:
UNCCD):
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/14f1OE-gpFGS0YV8kDr_dodTLZezWf4ft?usp=sharing
Social
Media Assets
Infographics
/ related social media assets (credit:
UNCCD):
https://trello.com/b/nHM98jM8/global-land-oulook-2nd-edition
The
GLO2 summary for decision
makers is available for
media preview now at https://bit.ly/GLO2SDM
The full
report will be available
Monday April 25 at https://bit.ly/GLO2full;
post-embargo at unccd.int/resources/global-land-outlook/overview
The
formal launch of GLO2 will
take place Tuesday 10 May during the high-level
segment of the UNCCD’s 15th
Conference of Parties (COP15, 9-20 May), Abidjan,
Côte d'Ivoire.
Two
new regional
reports, covering Central
and Eastern Europe and Southern Africa, will also
be released at COP15.
COP15
programme, registration and other media
information: https://www.unccd.int/cop15