*[Enwl-eng] [can-eecca] Fwd: [PCG] INF: G20 Presentations
ENWLine
Sorry for the long email. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to participate in the G20 PCG coordination calls, but I have some comments.
On demands:
First, our focus on having G20 countries develop their long-term strategies in 2018 is slowly becoming unrealistic, especially that we want them to conduct a multi-stakeholder dialogue in its production, which requires time. In my opinion, even if they start today, it will be a tight process if they do it the way we want them to do it. So my suggestion on that, our focus when we demand long-term strategies from now on is to be more on engagement of civil society in its development rather than the year. So slowly our demand needs to shift towards “in full participation of various national and sub-national stakeholders and civil society, governments should develop long-term strategies as soon as possible, and before 2020 as outlined in the Paris Agreement”. I already sense that many (including from our network) don’t look at having the LTS by mid-2018 realistic, and it is hurting our credibility a bit.
Another important aspect that we need to focus more in our G20 demands is the importance of the 2018 moment, and having a political commitment to revise and enhance ambition by 2020 coming out of the FD in 2018. I think we are moving into a safer space to start this messaging, and already some groups are aiming to do so.
On General geopolitics:
We had an interesting discussion with some ‘high-level’ officials. They believe that it should not be a G19 vs Trump kind of situation, which I agree with. The rationale is that if it is set up as a standoff between G19 leaders and Trump, some of the countries that would not want to start a fight with the US (like Saudi Arabia) will chose not to accept a G19 statement. The ideal situation would be if the US isolates itself without confrontation. Ie when climate change is discussed, the US should opt out rather than fighting back any kind of climate outcome. If we agree on this, it will affect our communication a lot. The focus of our messaging should be on the importance of a climate outcome rather than to challenge the US. If US opts out of the discussion, it will make it more comfortable for others to accept a G19 outcome.
On Saudi Arabia:
I think Saudi Arabia is the country with the most likelihood to oppose a climate outcome, not because of their position on climate change, but because they are at the moment very sensitive to US position. What is happening in the region with Qatar and reassigning a new Crown Prince would not happen if the US didn’t want it to. Because of the Trump visit to Saudi Arabia the King has been doing a lot of things that he wanted to do for a long-time, and now he feels he has the space to do them (Qatar and Crown Prince). So they will not risk upsetting the US on climate change if it becomes a confrontation.
Therefore, in order to make sure the Saudis stay in the G19 (knowing that Merkel will not accept a G18), we need to first not make the climate outcome a confrontation between US and others; AND we need to make Saudi Arabia feel pressured to stay strong on climate change or they lose credibility. Saudi Arabia is now very sensitive to global criticism. They are trying to show that they are the ones that are progressive, while Qatar is the terrorist supporter. Qatar is also trying to do the same, and that is why last week Qatar submitted its instrument of ratification in NY. I know no one noticed this, but the reason why they did this while under siege is to show their progressive nature. Saudi Arabia needs to fear a negative global reaction similar to what happened to the US when they pulled out, if they decide not to join a climate outcome at G20. They need also to feel that they will be branded as US puppets if they don’t accept a climate outcome.
Therefore, our messaging on Saudi Arabia has to be very carefully designed, and my suggestion is:
“G20 climate outcome is a big test for Saudi Arabia, because it will show if they are an independent state or under the control of the US. Will Saudi Arabia stick to their signature to the Paris Agreement and agree on a strong climate outcome in the G20, or are they compromised. If they don’t sign up to a strong G20 climate outcome they will not only lose their credibility, but they have to also face a strong global condemnation as the US did when they pulled out of the Paris Agreement.”
I think we need to find innovative ways to send this message.
On Communication:
We also need to prepare not only for the messaging towards the G20, but also be ready in relation to what comes out of it. Our reaction should be already prepared. One thing we need to do is if some governments (like Saudi Arabia) don’t agree to sign on a strong climate outcome. It is very important that we differentiate between not being part of the G20 climate outcome and not being part of the Paris Agreement. Not being part of a G20 climate outcome does not mean that this country is not still committed to Paris.
So if we are asked if Paris Agreement is now weaker because country x (Saudis for example) did not accept to have a strong G20 climate outcome, our response should be:
“No. Because G20 outcome is more about overall Geopolitical consideration. Saudi Arabia is still part of the Paris Agreement. What is weaker is Saudi Arabia credibility as an independent country, and not the Paris Agreement.”
By the way, we might be asked the same question before the Summit ends as speculation.
I hope this is helpful.
Best, Wael
Wael Hmaidan
International Director
Climate Action Network (CAN)
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From: can...@googlegroups.com [mailto:can-pcg@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Gillian
Nelson
Sent: Wednesday, June 28, 2017 5:02 PM
To: CAN G20
<can...@climateaction.network>; can...@googlegroups.com
Subject: [PCG] INF: G20
Presentations
Dear all,
Thanks to everyone that participated in the PCG/G20 call today. Please find attached the 2 presentations. I am also resending links to the googleslides for these presentations, which we will update as new intel comes in on the different country positions, or if we feel that messaging needs to be adjusted in line with new intel and discussions. Please feel free to make comments in these googleslides.
CAN G20 2017 Expectations: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/118bv8ah7ezpfJtuzrXKpGmEVFdu9fzllpygHGDAk1-o/edit#slide=id.p3
CAN G20 Comms Coordination: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1XuxypocITcESbpVyLcEt49TAlfQ5j_XvK4zvDZIdywc/edit#slide=id.g23997763c4_0_20
Best,
Gillian
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Date: 2017-06-30 23:48 GMT+06:00
Subject: RE: [PCG] INF: G20 Presentations
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