*[Enwl-eng] Sea Levels Will Not Rise Uniformly Around the World

[ENWLine]

*New projections of 'uneven' global sea-level rise*

by Staff Writers
London, UK (SPX) Feb 26, 2013

Sophisticated computer modelling has shown how sea-level rise over the
coming century could affect some regions far more than others. The model
shows that parts of the Pacific will see the highest rates of rise while
some polar regions will actually experience falls in relative sea levels
due to the ways sea, land and ice interact globally.

Reporting in the journal Geophysical Research Letters researchers have
looked ahead to the year 2100 to show how ice loss will continue to add
to rising sea levels. Scientists have known for some time that sea level
rise around the globe will not be uniform, but in this study the team of
ice2sea researchers show in great detail the global pattern of sea-level
rise that would result from two scenarios of ice-loss from glaciers and
ice sheets.

The team, from Italy's University of Urbino and the UK's University of
Bristol, found that ice melt from glaciers, and the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets, is likely to be of critical importance to regional
sea-level change in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean where the sea level
rise would be greater than the average increase across the globe. This
will affect in particular, Western Australia, Oceania and the small
atolls and islands in this region, including Hawaii.

The study focussed on three effects that lead to global mean sea-level
rise being unequally distributed around the world. Firstly, land is
subsiding and emerging due to a massive loss of ice at the end of the
last ice age 10,000 years ago when billions of tons of ice covering
parts of North America and Europe melted.

This caused a major redistribution of mass on the Earth, but the crust
responds to such changes so slowly that it is still deforming. Secondly,
the warming of the oceans leads to a change in the distribution of water
across the globe.

Thirdly the sheer mass of water held in ice at the frozen continents
like Antarctica and Greenland exerts a gravitational pull on the
surrounding liquid water, pulling in enormous amounts of water and
raising the sea-level close to those continents. As the ice melts its
pull decreases and the water previously attracted rushes away to be
redistributed around the globe.

Co-author Professor Giorgio Spada says, "In the paper we are successful
in defining the patterns, known as sea level fingerprints, which affect
sea levels.

"This is paramount for assessing the risk due to inundation in
low-lying, densely populated areas. The most vulnerable areas are those
where the effects combine to give the sea-level rise that is
significantly higher than the global average."

He added that in Europe the sea level would rise but it would be
slightly lower than the global average.

"We believe this is due to the effects of the melting polar ice
relatively close to Europe - particularly Greenland's ice. This will
tend to slow sea-level rise in Europe a little, but at the expense of
higher sea-level rise elsewhere."

The team considered two scenarios in its modelling. One was the "most
likely" or "mid-range" and the other closer to the upper limit of what
could happen.

Professor Spada said, "The total rise in some areas of the equatorial
oceans worst affected by the terrestrial ice melting could be 60cm if a
mid-range sea-level rise is projected, and the warming of the oceans is
also taken into account."

David Vaughan, ice2sea programme coordinator, says, "In the last couple
of years programmes like ice2sea have made great strides in predicting
global average sea-level rise. The urgent job now is to understand how
global the sea-level rise will be shared out around the world's
coastlines. Only by doing this can we really help people understand the
risks and prepare for the future."

Co-author Jonathan Bamber, of Bristol University, says, "This is the
first study to examine the regional pattern of sea level changes using
sophisticated model predictions of the wastage of glaciers and ice
sheets over the next century."

The paper "The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of
future terrestrial ice loss" is published in Geophysical Research
Letters online. Graphics and abstract available.




http://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_projections_of_uneven_global_sea_level_rise_999.html


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