*[Enwl-eng] Natural Gas, Solar Set to Displace Coal,Oil Within Decades, Some Say
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Mar 7, 2013, 4:46:29 PM3/7/13
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*Natural Gas Dethrones King Coal As Power Companies Look To Future*
by Christopher Joyce
March 01, 2013 4:32 PM
All Things Considered
http://www.npr.org/2013/03/01/173258342/natural-gas-dethrones-king-coal-as-power-companies-look-to-future
Illustration Omitted:
American Electric Power's natural gas-burning plant in Dresden,
Ohio, is one of the energy company's new investments in alternatives to
coal-burning plants. Michael Williamson/The Washington Post/Getty Images
The way Americans get their electricity is changing. Coal is in decline.
Natural gas is bursting out of the ground in record amounts. And the use
of wind and solar energy is growing fast. All this is happening as power
companies are trying to choose which kind of energy to bet on for the
next several decades.
Until recently, half of these plants burned coal to make electricity.
Now, that's down to about one-third. Since 2010, about 150 coal plants
either have been retired or it's been announced they will be retired soon.
What knocked King Coal off its throne? Mostly natural gas. "We added
almost twice as much natural gas capacity as we retired coal capacity
last year," says Trevor Houser, an energy analyst with the Rhodium Group
in New York. Why gas? "That is primarily because of the price."
The price of natural gas is well below what it was a few years ago.
That's mostly because hydraulic fracturing technology is reaching more
gas reserves, and also because a weak economy has lowered the demand for
electricity. And there's plenty more gas to come. On Thursday, a study
from the University of Texas confirmed government estimates of huge
reserves in Texas alone.
That would suggest that coal is doomed.
But not so fast. The gas market is quirky. As people started burning
more natural gas, gas prices crept up. It's classic economics: "As
natural gas prices have started to increase over the past few months,"
Houser points out, "coal's share of U.S. power generation has increased
right alongside it."
Workers move a section of well casing into place at a Chesapeake Energy
natural gas well site near Burlington, Pa., in 2010.
Business
Natural Gas Giant Tries To Shift Gears
So this is the brave new energy world of the 21st century --- two evenly
matched opponents. Natural gas is providing 30 percent of our
electricity, with coal a half-dozen percentage points above that, trying
to halt its downward spiral. Add in electricity powered by water, wind
and solar --- which, collectively, have surged to now provide about 12
percent of our power --- and you've got heated competition for access to
your wall socket.
The future of electric power is at stake. Coal plants are closing.
Nuclear power is not growing. The economy is picking up. That means more
demand for electricity.
"In the last five years or so, there's been an increasing degree of
concern in the industry that we need to start building new capacity,"
says Revis James, who analyzes the market for the utility industry's
Electric Power Research Institute.
New capacity --- new power plants --- will determine the kind of energy
Americans use for the next 50 years or so. Natural gas would seem the
economical choice. But here's the rub: The actual cost of the gas ---
rather than the cost of building the equipment to burn it --- accounts
for about half a utility's operating cost. That's way more than coal or
uranium fuel. So when gas prices fluctuate (and they're famous for doing
that) it can wreck a utility's bottom line. "The real $64,000 question,"
James says, is, 'What will happen to gas prices as the power sector's
consumption of gas starts to significantly increase?' "
And once you build those gas-fired plants, you're stuck with them for
decades. You have to pay back the cost of building the plant. James says
that's why power companies are nervous about jumping on the gas
bandwagon when gas prices are so volatile.
Bruce Nilles is hoping they don't jump on that wagon. Nilles is a lawyer
with the Sierra Club, which has spent the past decade fighting permits
for new coal plants.
Nilles agrees that using more natural gas has reduced the country's
climate-warming carbon emissions. But, he says, don't build any more.
That could divert the country away from the cleanest energy --- wind,
solar and geothermal power. "What we're trying to avoid," Nilles says,
"is building hundreds of new gas plants, locking us in for the next 20,
30 years, and thereby making it impossible to make a swift transition to
clean energy."
Nilles says it's a race --- coal is slowing down, renewable forms of
energy are closing the gap, and natural gas is a dark horse coming up on
the outside.
* * *
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Shell_report_shows_decreasing_role_for_oil_999.html
*Shell report shows decreasing role for oil*
by Staff Writers
Washington (UPI) Mar 1, 2013
U.S. oil giant Shell in a new report said solar could eclipse oil to
become the dominant energy source by 2060.
As part of its "New Lens Scenarios" forecast, Shell predicts that in the
meantime, natural gas in 2030 "becomes the largest global primary energy
source, ending a 70-year reign for oil."
In the forecast, Shell contrasts what it calls a "mountains" scenario,
characterized by a stable, rigid, low growth with "oceans," a more
dynamic global economy.
Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington, Thursday Peter Voser, chief executive officer of Shell, said
both scenarios highlight "the need for business and government to find
ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and
use of cleaner energy and improve energy efficiency."
The release of the report follows Shell's announcement Wednesday that it
would pause its arctic drilling program this summer.
Voser said Shell considers its U.S. arctic pursuit "a multiyear
exploration program," with development potential in the second half of
the next decade. Under such timelines, he said "we will take the time to
do this right, in order to be the responsible operator in a multiyear
exploration program."
In an apparent reference to its arctic drilling experience, Shell says
in the report, "In the oil world, moderate prices put pressure on
technically difficult and expensive frontier projects more common
outside OPEC."
Under both scenarios, Shell predicts global emissions of carbon dioxide
to drop to near zero by 2100.
In an interview with Canada's Financial Post, Jeremy Bentham, head of
Shell's scenario team, indicated that the company expects the
environmental movement to exert more influence in an ever-increasing
connected world.
Last summer, Greenpeace conducted an online hoax to draw attention to
Shell's push to drill in the U.S. arctic.
"Communications connectivity provides platforms for more voices and that
can be used in a constructive or a destructive way," said Bentham.
"Clearly, we would want to see it used in a constructive way -- these
voices are important. But more voices mean more opportunities for
opposition, but also herd-like opposition."
Bentham maintains that the age of oil "is not over." Yet in the scenario
of slow growth, oil is likely to lose out to both coal and natural gas,
particularly amid sluggish energy prices.
That, in turn, would lead to great advances in carbon capture and storage.
Bentham predicts OPEC countries to lose their influence in the medium
term as non-OECD growth increases.
"However, if you look over time, given the wealth of resources in the
major resource holders in OPEC, then you will see that the proportion of
production that comes from OPEC will begin to grow again. But clearly,
there are more challenges for OPEC in both scenarios."
*** NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this
material is distributed, without profit, for research and educational
purposes only. ***
From: "Yahoo Newsgroups" <vasi...@ramapo.edu>
Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2013 1:27 PM
Subject: News: Natural Gas, Solar Set to Displace Coal, Oil Within Decades,
Some Say
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by Christopher Joyce
March 01, 2013 4:32 PM
All Things Considered
http://www.npr.org/2013/03/01/173258342/natural-gas-dethrones-king-coal-as-power-companies-look-to-future
Illustration Omitted:
American Electric Power's natural gas-burning plant in Dresden,
Ohio, is one of the energy company's new investments in alternatives to
coal-burning plants. Michael Williamson/The Washington Post/Getty Images
The way Americans get their electricity is changing. Coal is in decline.
Natural gas is bursting out of the ground in record amounts. And the use
of wind and solar energy is growing fast. All this is happening as power
companies are trying to choose which kind of energy to bet on for the
next several decades.
Until recently, half of these plants burned coal to make electricity.
Now, that's down to about one-third. Since 2010, about 150 coal plants
either have been retired or it's been announced they will be retired soon.
What knocked King Coal off its throne? Mostly natural gas. "We added
almost twice as much natural gas capacity as we retired coal capacity
last year," says Trevor Houser, an energy analyst with the Rhodium Group
in New York. Why gas? "That is primarily because of the price."
The price of natural gas is well below what it was a few years ago.
That's mostly because hydraulic fracturing technology is reaching more
gas reserves, and also because a weak economy has lowered the demand for
electricity. And there's plenty more gas to come. On Thursday, a study
from the University of Texas confirmed government estimates of huge
reserves in Texas alone.
That would suggest that coal is doomed.
But not so fast. The gas market is quirky. As people started burning
more natural gas, gas prices crept up. It's classic economics: "As
natural gas prices have started to increase over the past few months,"
Houser points out, "coal's share of U.S. power generation has increased
right alongside it."
Workers move a section of well casing into place at a Chesapeake Energy
natural gas well site near Burlington, Pa., in 2010.
Business
Natural Gas Giant Tries To Shift Gears
So this is the brave new energy world of the 21st century --- two evenly
matched opponents. Natural gas is providing 30 percent of our
electricity, with coal a half-dozen percentage points above that, trying
to halt its downward spiral. Add in electricity powered by water, wind
and solar --- which, collectively, have surged to now provide about 12
percent of our power --- and you've got heated competition for access to
your wall socket.
The future of electric power is at stake. Coal plants are closing.
Nuclear power is not growing. The economy is picking up. That means more
demand for electricity.
"In the last five years or so, there's been an increasing degree of
concern in the industry that we need to start building new capacity,"
says Revis James, who analyzes the market for the utility industry's
Electric Power Research Institute.
New capacity --- new power plants --- will determine the kind of energy
Americans use for the next 50 years or so. Natural gas would seem the
economical choice. But here's the rub: The actual cost of the gas ---
rather than the cost of building the equipment to burn it --- accounts
for about half a utility's operating cost. That's way more than coal or
uranium fuel. So when gas prices fluctuate (and they're famous for doing
that) it can wreck a utility's bottom line. "The real $64,000 question,"
James says, is, 'What will happen to gas prices as the power sector's
consumption of gas starts to significantly increase?' "
And once you build those gas-fired plants, you're stuck with them for
decades. You have to pay back the cost of building the plant. James says
that's why power companies are nervous about jumping on the gas
bandwagon when gas prices are so volatile.
Bruce Nilles is hoping they don't jump on that wagon. Nilles is a lawyer
with the Sierra Club, which has spent the past decade fighting permits
for new coal plants.
Nilles agrees that using more natural gas has reduced the country's
climate-warming carbon emissions. But, he says, don't build any more.
That could divert the country away from the cleanest energy --- wind,
solar and geothermal power. "What we're trying to avoid," Nilles says,
"is building hundreds of new gas plants, locking us in for the next 20,
30 years, and thereby making it impossible to make a swift transition to
clean energy."
Nilles says it's a race --- coal is slowing down, renewable forms of
energy are closing the gap, and natural gas is a dark horse coming up on
the outside.
* * *
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Shell_report_shows_decreasing_role_for_oil_999.html
*Shell report shows decreasing role for oil*
by Staff Writers
Washington (UPI) Mar 1, 2013
U.S. oil giant Shell in a new report said solar could eclipse oil to
become the dominant energy source by 2060.
As part of its "New Lens Scenarios" forecast, Shell predicts that in the
meantime, natural gas in 2030 "becomes the largest global primary energy
source, ending a 70-year reign for oil."
In the forecast, Shell contrasts what it calls a "mountains" scenario,
characterized by a stable, rigid, low growth with "oceans," a more
dynamic global economy.
Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington, Thursday Peter Voser, chief executive officer of Shell, said
both scenarios highlight "the need for business and government to find
ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and
use of cleaner energy and improve energy efficiency."
The release of the report follows Shell's announcement Wednesday that it
would pause its arctic drilling program this summer.
Voser said Shell considers its U.S. arctic pursuit "a multiyear
exploration program," with development potential in the second half of
the next decade. Under such timelines, he said "we will take the time to
do this right, in order to be the responsible operator in a multiyear
exploration program."
In an apparent reference to its arctic drilling experience, Shell says
in the report, "In the oil world, moderate prices put pressure on
technically difficult and expensive frontier projects more common
outside OPEC."
Under both scenarios, Shell predicts global emissions of carbon dioxide
to drop to near zero by 2100.
In an interview with Canada's Financial Post, Jeremy Bentham, head of
Shell's scenario team, indicated that the company expects the
environmental movement to exert more influence in an ever-increasing
connected world.
Last summer, Greenpeace conducted an online hoax to draw attention to
Shell's push to drill in the U.S. arctic.
"Communications connectivity provides platforms for more voices and that
can be used in a constructive or a destructive way," said Bentham.
"Clearly, we would want to see it used in a constructive way -- these
voices are important. But more voices mean more opportunities for
opposition, but also herd-like opposition."
Bentham maintains that the age of oil "is not over." Yet in the scenario
of slow growth, oil is likely to lose out to both coal and natural gas,
particularly amid sluggish energy prices.
That, in turn, would lead to great advances in carbon capture and storage.
Bentham predicts OPEC countries to lose their influence in the medium
term as non-OECD growth increases.
"However, if you look over time, given the wealth of resources in the
major resource holders in OPEC, then you will see that the proportion of
production that comes from OPEC will begin to grow again. But clearly,
there are more challenges for OPEC in both scenarios."
*** NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this
material is distributed, without profit, for research and educational
purposes only. ***
From: "Yahoo Newsgroups" <vasi...@ramapo.edu>
Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2013 1:27 PM
Subject: News: Natural Gas, Solar Set to Displace Coal, Oil Within Decades,
Some Say
------------- * ENWL * ------------
Ecological North West Line * St. Petersburg, Russia
Independent Environmental Net Service: http://www.bellona.ru/enwl/
Russian: ENWL(discussions), ENWL-inf(FSU information), ENWL-misc(any topics)
English: ENWL-eng (world information)
en...@lew.spb.org, enwl...@lew.spb.org, en...@lew.spb.org, en...@lew.spb.org
Subscription, Moderator: vf...@lew.spb.org or en...@enw.net.ru
Archive: http://enwl.bellona.ru/pipermail/
and http://groups.google.com/group/enwl/
SEE ALSO: http://www.bellona.org (English)and http://www.bellona.ru
(Russian)
RSS: http://groups.google.ru/group/enwl/feeds?hl=ru
(C) Please refer to exclusive articles of ENWL
-------------------------------------
ONLY if your address is subscribed:
Enwl-eng mailing list
Enwl...@enwl.bellona.ru
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