Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] Hansen - Global Warming Has Accelerated
H simmens
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Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com
On Feb 5, 2025, at 6:29 AM, Robert Chris <robert...@gmail.com> wrote:
Note that i have changed the Subject of this thread.
There's a lot to digest in this new report but much has been presaged in Hansen's other utterances. Here I want to pick up on Zeke Hausfather's comment reported in The Guardian article on the report. It says:Climate scientist Dr Zeke Hausfather, who was not part of the study, said it was a useful contribution. “It’s important to emphasise that both of these issues – [pollution cuts] and climate sensitivity – are areas of deep scientific uncertainty,” he said.“While Hansen et al are on the high end of available estimates, we cannot say with any confidence that they are wrong, rather that they just represent something closer to a worst-case outcome.”We need to ask what the point is of this comment. He's accepting that Hansen's assessment can't be dismissed as wrong but effectively marginalises it by declaring it to be 'closer to a worst-case outcome' without specifying whether it's closer on the positive or negative side of such an outcome, or whether its sufficiently likely that we need to worry about it.This is Hausfather being a clever scientist and demonstrating his grasp of the scientific uncertainties that bedevil the entire climate change discourse. It is also Hausfather demonstrating that he has no grasp of the policy implications of the science.It is easy for the uninitiated to read his comment and assume that Hansen's assessment is so far out in the distant thin tail of probability, that it isn't something we really need worry about. What Hausfather doesn't make clear is that the probability distribution has horrendously fat tails and any worst-case outcome could easily be replaced by an even worse worst-case outcome as some of the uncertainties are resolved. This is precisely what has happened time and again during the last several decades of climate science. Moreover, he makes no comment about what would be an 'acceptable' likelihood of this worst-case outcome given the scale of harm that would ensue were it to be realised.From a policy perspective it is precisely because these worst-case outcomes are plausible, even if some may consider them to be less likely than some less worse outcomes, and the harms they entail are so enormous, that they should be the focus of policymaking.Scientists have got to stop confusing the intellectual demand to not overclaim their truths because they are always subject to some degree of uncertainty, with the need that policymakers have to protect the public in the face of that uncertainty, recognising that the public want to be protected from any plausible worst-case outcome. The whole point about it being plausible is that it wouldn't be a great surprise if it happened. That's what plausible means.Hausfather should be saying that Hansen has identified a plausible future, and given the potential harm it might entail, policymakers need urgently to step up and have policies that have a very very very high likelihood of preventing it from coming to pass.The current jargon for these events is HILL - High Impact Low Likelihood.RegardsRobert
From: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>
Sent: 04 February 2025 17:29
To: Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>
Cc: Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>; Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>; Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>; Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>; John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] How a Swiss-US study challenges what we know about the Gulf Stream system - SWI swissinfo.chJim did not say a word about cooling in the webinar and at least one of his co-authors expressed her strong opposition to cooling.
The good news is that Anton K the new ED was on the program but even he on behalf of Operaatio Arktus only expressed support for additional research essentially saying that the information should be available for the next generation to decide whether to deploy.
I posted a question asking at what point would Jim support the actual deployment of cooling if it could be shown to be safe and effective. Unfortunately they only allowed time for I think three questions and they gave preference to journalists so my question was not asked.
I was present at a previous presentation by Jim where in response to a question I posed replied that he was only supporting SRM research, which I found disappointing.
Herb
Herb Simmens
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future“A SciencePoem and an Inspiration.” Kim Stanley Robinson
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com
On Feb 4, 2025, at 10:19 AM, Robert Chris <robert...@gmail.com> wrote:
Hi MikeMissed the Hansen webinar unfortunately but from a quick reading of his new paper, his closing remarks could not more powerfully endorse my closing remarks below.The critical question is where are the forces that are going to provoke the necessary shift, and will they emerge soon enough and be powerful enough to overcome the current dominant forces seeking to conserve their power, wealth and status?But he makes a good case for cooling - Hoorah! It'll be interesting to see what impact that has. Hopefully more than his historical efforts to promote fee and dividend.RegardsRobert
From: Robert Chris <robert...@gmail.com>
Sent: 04 February 2025 13:52
To: Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>; H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>
Cc: Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>; Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>; Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>; John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] How a Swiss-US study challenges what we know about the Gulf Stream system - SWI swissinfo.chHi MikeI've read your message several times, each with increasing incredulity! I think I must be misreading it because you seem to be suggesting that merely by adding a few words to the UNFCCC Charter, all our past failures to implement the policies necessary to stabilise 'greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' would somehow magically be resolved. That can't really be what you mean, can it?Where is there any credible evidence that utterances from the UN or its many agencies exhorting world leaders to act decisively and effectively in response to climate change has resulted in such action? If only!Moreover, if I've understood your first sentence correctly, I don't think there's any value in ranking climate change and the responses to it in terms of their respective degrees of complexity and wickedness. The problem and the responses to it are all wrapped up together. Without the problem, we wouldn't need the responses. We have to treat them as a package and what makes them wicked is the virtual certainty that any combination of interventions significant enough to address global warming effectively is going to have side effects and some of these are going to be undesirable and some of those won't become evident until sometime in the future. The interventions will (hopefully) reduce some climate threats but will also introduce others and this will mean that the climate change problem won't get solved, it'll just morph through a never-ending stream of adaptations.Humanity is on the threshold of taking long-term direct responsibility for the management of the global climate. That is a BFD that I really don't think we've yet come to terms with.Finally, your closing question is intriguing. I'd love to hear a historian's considered view of how the world order has changed since 1992. My gut feeling is that we'd be shocked by the extent to which the post-WWII ILO has disintegrated and the implications of this for a whole range of geopolitical issues, including climate change. But I wouldn't recommend action merely based on what my guts are feeling 😄.My advice to all those concerned about climate change is to stop relying solely on Enlightenment reductionist linear thinking. Climate change is caused by too much human CO₂ emissions so the response must be to reduce the emissions. Well, as we've seen, that doesn't work because if it did, we'd have done it by now. It hasn't worked because reducing emissions at the necessary scale has implications across almost every aspect of modern life. Climate change is a systems problem, and responses to it require appropriate systems interventions. That expertise exists but it isn't called upon because the likely consequences would be a radical shift in the power, wealth and status of existing world elites.In brief Mike, my reasoning is that climate change is more of power problem than a technical or climate science one. That doesn't mean that the technology is not important, far from it. But it does mean that the power of the technology to reduce the risks from climate change is hobbled by the dominant pressure to maintain the status quo for those with the political power to unleash that technological power.The entity that Herb and I are proposing is all about loosening the ties that conserve that political power.RegardsRobert
From: Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>
Sent: 04 February 2025 00:43
To: Robert Chris <robert...@gmail.com>; H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>
Cc: Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>; Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>; Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>; John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] How a Swiss-US study challenges what we know about the Gulf Stream system - SWI swissinfo.chSo Robert, my question is if human-induced climate change is more or less complex than applying intervention to deal with human-induced climate change that aims to offset further global warming? And, of course, I'd like to hear your reasoning. For climate change itself, the world came up with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. So here is the UNFCCC's objective:
ARTICLE 2
OBJECTIVE
The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related
legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt
is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of
the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient
to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to
ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable
economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
So, what if there was an amendment of just a few words, replacing with "atmosphere" with "atmosphere and global average temperature", so adding just four words (or perhaps "atmosphere and global climatic conditions"). That is really all that has to be done and the rest follows. I've not read all the various treaty provisions and the agreements and interpretations provided by those that approved the convention, but if nations will approve the original objective, might approving this one be impossibly hard?
I'm raising this question because the problems facing climate intervention (asking to hold the climate roughly constant) would seem far less challenging that one would expect to be raised by allowing emissions to just keep going up. Has the world really changed so much since 1992 that nations could not be inspired to move forward?
Just wondering.
Best, Mike
On 2/3/25 4:27 PM, Robert Chris wrote:Hi HerbI disagree with almost everything you've said here but the bits I agree with are vital. Let's start there.I agree that creating the kind of entity you describe could change the discourse on cooling in a remarkably short period of time. I think I might have got to that conclusion at about the same time as you, if not before. No argument there!I also agree that without it, the impetus for cooling will likely to be too little too late. No argument there!I agree that cooling is less wicked than climate change. But it's still pretty damned wicked. The details you provide to support the case that it isn't very wicked largely misconstrue the nature of wickedness. This is not the place to go into the detail of that. I suggest you go back to the source, it's a great read. Rittel and Webber were town planners, you should love it!The economic arguments are largely irrelevant. No one is going to do SRM because it's cheaper than some alternative.It's the problem that's wicked, not the proposed solution. Climate change is a wicked problem and by definition that means that no solution is going to solve it, and that includes cooling. We need to understand that we're not looking for solutions. Climate change isn't a problem that's going to be solved, job done, let's move on to the next problem. It's a situation that will have to be constantly managed. Cooling has a vital role in that management but it isn't a solution to climate change.The reason my hackles go up whenever anyone mentions the Moonshot as an example of what can be done with political will, is that however challenging it might have been as a project, ultimately it was just an engineering challenge. It didn't present any social or political threats to US citizens or the those of other nations or to other nations' political circumstances other than perhaps to the prestige of the Russians. If it had failed, it would just have been a big money pit. Any significant intervention in the global climate is just so much more than that, that it doesn't bear comparison. The problems with cooling are not the technological or even the financial ones you mention. They don't make it wicked or tame. The problems are geopolitical and, over time, climatic. Whatever the scientists today say about SRM, deploying it at scale for a decade or more is going to throw up a stack of issues that they haven't even conceived yet. That's part of what makes it wicked.Another is that there's no clear stopping point. You don't stop SRM when the climate is 'fixed' because the climate will never be 'fixed'. What does that even mean? Once you start SRM at scale there's no escaping that humanity has taken direct responsibility for managing the global climate. We don't have processes to manage or govern that and it's fanciful to imagine that those processes will just emerge from a bunch of people getting together and being rational and sensible. They raise a whole stack of truly fundamental issues about our relationship with nature that have not been confronted in such a direct manner before.This is not an argument for cooling not happening. It's an argument for it being wicked and requiring the approaches appropriate to wicked problems. If you treat it like a Moonshot, the great likelihood is that it'll blow up on the launch pad.RegardsRobert
From: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>
Sent: 03 February 2025 18:19
To: Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>
Cc: Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>; Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>; Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>; Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>; John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] How a Swiss-US study challenges what we know about the Gulf Stream system - SWI swissinfo.chHi. Robert,
Climate change as a whole may be a wicked problem but deploying cooling on an urgent basis to minimize suffering death and collapse appears to be much more straightforward and much less wicked.
There does not appear to be any insurmountable technological or economic barrier to deployment. The arguments and evidence in support of cooling versus ERA are overwhelmingly one-sided in favor of cooling.
The cost benefit ratio is upwards of 1000 to one or more according to Robert Tulip and the Royal Society. Stephan Salter calculated that the annual debt service cost for a fleet of MCB vessels sufficient to cool the climate would be approximately what the security costs were for the Glasgow COP alone. David Keith has made similar calculations regarding the cost benefit ratio for SAI
Therefore the challenge has been and remains finding effective ways to convey how dire our present condition is, how much worse it will get even with the most optimistic projections for emission reductions and how promising several cooling modalities singly or in combination may be for stabilizing and lowering temperature increases.
That may well continue to be a challenging geopolitical problem but hardly inherently insurmountable.
The bottom line is as I have repeatedly observed there is no major international entity - public or private - calling for the deployment of the safest and most effective portfolio of cooling interventions. Which is quite astonishing.
I am highly confident that creating such an entity with an expansive budget, internationally renowned board and extremely well qualified staff could change the discourse on cooling in a remarkably short period of time.
As obvious as it is - at least to me and I believe to you - that such an entity is an absolutely essential component of a strategy to gain acceptance for cooling deployment I have run into strong resistance in my attempts at giving the creation of such an entity a prominent place in the HP’s strategic plan.
As long as those of us engaged on these and other lists choose not to work towards achieving the creation of such an entity or to propose an alternative strategy of equal potential effectiveness the impetus for cooling will likely be insufficient in the very short time left to make it happen.
Herb
Herb Simmens
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future“A SciencePoem and an Inspiration.” Kim Stanley Robinson
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com
Herb, the problem with that is that the Moonshot wasn't a wicked problem. Climate change is.You only have to scratch the surface to realise how dissimilar the two are.
RegardsRobert
From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>
Sent: 03 February 2025 17:35
To: Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>
Cc: Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>; Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>; Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>; John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] How a Swiss-US study challenges what we know about the Gulf Stream system - SWI swissinfo.chHi Oswald,
I assume you meant to address your note to me and not Ron.
There is nothing immutable about scientific timetables. My president established a mission to land on the moon by the end of the decade and the necessary science and technology resources were then mobilized to make it happen. Had that goal not been established it might’ve taken another decade or two to do the science and technology necessary.
A commission or farsighted world leader or two could announce after intensive review of the existing evidence that it is necessary - invoking the precautionary principle - to deploy safe and effective cooling by the end of the decade in order to minimize further suffering, death and collapse.
And X million dollars will be made available to the scientific and technology community to propose and field test the safest and most effective portfolio of cooling techniques by say 2028 with deployment beginning by 2030 or 2032.
Are you saying that we can’t or shouldn’t adopt a top down mission driven approach as I describe above to avoiding existential collapse of civilization and the natural world as we know it?
Herb
Herb Simmens
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future“A SciencePoem and an Inspiration.” Kim Stanley Robinson
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com
Hi Ron,
yes and no.
Yes to many (peer reviewed) papers which describe a consistent strategy out of the mess we are in. You will do your SAI, we are working on the EAMO…
No to a timetable which is dictated by urgency. Science is a very slow and thorough process. It just does not happen fast, no matter what urgency. Science will eventually embrace the right strategy. It will probably take another 10 years. In the sense of GW that’s way too slow. Right. But hectical jumping around does not help, it will not make it faster. Do the hard work. Very detailed, very long, very slow.
No to trying to invoke a grand commission. It won’t happen. Let’s concentrate on things which are possible. This one is not. Not yet.
Regards
Oswald Petersen
Atmospheric Methane Removal AG
Lärchenstr. 5
CH-8280 Kreuzlingen
Tel: +41-71-6887514
Mob: +49-177-2734245
Von: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>
Gesendet: Montag, 3. Februar 2025 18:10
An: Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>
Cc: Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>; Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>; Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>; John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Betreff: Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] How a Swiss-US study challenges what we know about the Gulf Stream system - SWI swissinfo.ch
Hi Oswald,
I agree with your observation that the coolness that the IPCC exhibits towards cooling is a fundamental roadblock and challenge.
And since the IPCC decided not to devote any of its special reports to cooling or restoration the world has to wait until close to the end of the decade when AR seven comes out.
But of course that timetable is totally inconsistent with the need for urgent action.
Therefore I would suggest what is needed is a two track strategy:
First to encourage and support the publication of as many peer reviewed papers as possible that treat cooling objectively. In the absence of a large body of favorable papers to cite the IPCC will once again pour cold water on cooling in the next round.
Secondly and more urgently is helping to organize an international campaign to create a high level commission or body to comprehensively, objectively and equitably examine the evidence that ERA could be sufficient to preserve civilization as we know it and to recommend what would presumably be a triad based approach along with aggressive adaptation to minimize climate extremes, tipping point activation and civilizational and ecosystem collapse.
I previously made this proposal and invoked the Brundtland Commission as one possible but certainly not the only model for such an effort.
Does anyone have a better idea to establish the international legitimacy for DCC which is a prerequisite for any consequential deployment?
Herb
Herb Simmens
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future“A SciencePoem and an Inspiration.” Kim Stanley Robinson
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com
On Feb 3, 2025, at 11:34 AM, 'Oswald Petersen' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> wrote:
Hi Mike,
our Swiss newspapers are actually full of the Arctic story today. So, no, it is not true that media are not paying attention to this, at least not here. The problem is in fact, that nobody believes the story of possible cooling. And that is in fact not a media problem. Media report what established science tells them, and established science tells the eternal tale of ERA. And that story is, well, reported multiple times and … boring.
We have to concentrate on IPCC. Without them changing the ERA story, it won’t happen, neither SAI, nor EAMO, nor OIF nor anything…
Regards
Oswald Petersen
Atmospheric Methane Removal AG
Lärchenstr. 5
CH-8280 Kreuzlingen
Tel: +41-71-6887514
Mob: +49-177-2734245
Von: 'Michael MacCracken' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Gesendet: Montag, 3. Februar 2025 17:13
An: Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>; Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Cc: John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; EcoRestoration Alliance <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Betreff: Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] How a Swiss-US study challenges what we know about the Gulf Stream system - SWI swissinfo.ch
Dear Robert--Having talked to a prominent science reporter (employed by Science magazine) some years back, I'd suggest that the problem is that what is happening is not really news in their mind--it has already been reported. Basically, even the science reporters (or at least his) is that they are not responsible for educating the public by providing context for what is happening--they are responsible for reporting new findings and the Arctic melting is just not a new finding (or at least that is how the view expressed would apply to the news that you cite).
The effect of this viewpoint is that long-term, relatively slowly evolving problems will just not get the coverage that those thinking over the long-term (to them, perhaps a few years to a decade and more) think is essential in order to deal with the problem. So, just like the focus on investment seems to be mainly on the next quarter, the long term approach (which Warren Buffet has become wealthy on) is not going to be the focus of their attention. Trump and Musk are taking this to an extreme, not seeming to pay attention to focuses other than the next day's headlines.
So, no real need to get conspiratorial here--what else matters than living day to day?
Regards, Mike
On 2/3/25 9:20 AM, Robbie Tulip wrote:
Tom
The problem you describe, media ignoring Arctic melting, is one of mass psychological delusion. All matters global warming are now placed within a political framework that somehow allows climate change to be totally ignored.
The triumph of Trump is understood as the defeat of woke. Climate change is categorised as just an ideological obsession associated with the promotion of diversity, inclusion and equity. Now that all things DEI can be ignored by decree, so too can the whole of science.
This dangerous fantasy of resolute ignorance is certainly a very short term moment in politics due to the Trump honeymoon. I remain of the view that an underlying rationality within Republican ranks can be reached by targeting the commercial interests of major conservative industries. But this needs to be handled with care.
Ignoring global warming is bad for business. Therefore a message will be constructed that says to key Trump acolytes, yes we are right to ignore carbon as a woke ideology, as Trump insists, but we can repackage climate change as bad weather, which Musk can manage with new sunlight reflection technologies. This is a tactical response to the disastrous mentality that allows winter Arctic melting to fail to make the news despite its portent of existential collapse.
Regards
Robert Tulip 🌷
On Mon, 3 Feb 2025 at 10:02 pm, Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org> wrote:
ON FEBRUARY 2, 2025, THE NORTH POLE IS MELTING
<image001.jpg>TEMPERATURE ANOMALY, FEBRUARY 2 2025
Figure from Climate Reanalyzer.org: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/?var_id=t2anom&ortho=8&wt=1
The scale at right shows the air temperature anomaly 2 meters above the surface for February 2, 2025 in degrees Celsius. The North Pole was nearly 30C above average temperature in the middle of winter!
FEBRUARY 3 2025:
The fact that satellite data showed temperatures reached above melting at the North Pole at the height of Winter is so astonishing, and significant, that it should have been headline global news, yet it passed entirely without notice!
This event was caused by a long tongue of exceptionally warm water that reached the North Pole from the Atlantic Ocean.
On February 3 that tongue of warmer water retreated slightly from the North Pole.
Is nobody looking?
Or are the media and the public so obsessed with fake crises manufactured by politicians in order to monopolize publicity that they no longer care about the existential crisis unfolding before their eyes?
Or are the Orwellian news media totally censored?
Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef AllianceChief Scientist, Blue Regeneration SL
President, Biorock Technology Inc.Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK
37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139
gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Skype: tomgoreau
Tel: (1) 617-864-4226 (leave message)
Books:
Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase
http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466595392
Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration
http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466557734
Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change
No one can change the past, everybody can change the future
It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think
Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away
“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer
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Anastassia Makarieva
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rob de laet
Tom Goreau
Dear Anastassia,
I don’t think he was ignoring it, they just didn’t’ have enough time.
I heard a talk a week or so ago by George Tselioudis, another of Hansen’s co-authors, who did not appear on the show, but who specifically did the cloud albedo change modelling, and also found the same changes as Goessling et al, did from somewhat different data approaches. It’s a good paper:
Tselioudis, G, WB Rossow, F Bender, et al. Oceanic cloud trends during the satellite era and their radiative signatures. Clim Dyn 62:9319–9332 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07396-8
I think that was what Jim was referring to as “global warming induced climate feedbacks on albedo”, but he didn’t have time to go into details.
They think cloud changes are important, but not the dominant cause of the “sudden, rapid” temperature increase.
My own explanation is that decreasing vertical ocean heat mixing is also critical, and I have a paper under review right now on the extreme 2024 SST patterns with regard to ocean circulation change and coral bleaching, and will post a preprint soon.
This weekend we are trying to arrange a broadcast with Peter Wadhams and others on Metta Spencer’s Toronto Save the Planet show on the issue of the recent exceptional Arctic Warming and related issues. I can send a link when it’s up.
Best wishes,
Tom
From:
Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>
Date: Thursday, February 6, 2025 at 2:21 AM
To: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>
Cc: Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>, Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>, Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>, Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>, Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>, Planetary
Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>, Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [ERA] Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] Hansen - Global Warming Has Accelerated
Dear colleagues,
Am I alone to notice that Hansen et al. 2025 while having as their goal to disentangle aerosol forcing from albedo feebacks, do not discuss or even quote the recent study of Goessling et al. 2024 who allegedly already explained the 2023 temperature surge by attributing it to cloud cover change? (which by the way was in 2023 maximized over the continents).
What could be the cause of this omission, or did I miss something?
Best wishes,
Anastassia
Dr. Anastassia M. Makarieva
Theoretical Physics Division
Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute
Russia
On Thu, Feb 6, 2025 at 2:30 AM H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com> wrote:
Hi Robert,
Here is Laurie Laybourn’s response to the Hansen paper.
I like his concept of ‘ unrevealed risk’ that he asserts is now much greater if the paper is correct.
Laurie was the featured speaker along with Robert at an important HP meeting focused on tipping points held several months ago.
Tom Goreau
Biological feedbacks involving transpiration and respiration are pretty much ignored in most physical climate models, so their feedbacks are underestimated!
From:
rob de laet <robd...@yahoo.com>
Date: Thursday, February 6, 2025 at 6:12 AM
To: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>, Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>
Cc: Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>, Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>, Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>, Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>, Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>, Planetary
Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>, Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [ERA] Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] Hansen - Global Warming Has Accelerated
rob de laet
rob de laet
To: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>; Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>; Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Cc: Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>; Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>; Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>; Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>; John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Judith D. Schwartz
<1738691580579.jpeg>
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/ecorestoration-alliance/1686086760.9247718.1738849592827%40mail.yahoo.com.
<1738691580579.jpeg>
Georg Hansen
Sent: 06 February 2025 14:46
To: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>; Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>; Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Georg Hansen
Sent: 06 February 2025 16:07
To: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>; Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>; Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>; rob de laet <robd...@yahoo.com>
rob de laet
H simmens
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com
On Feb 6, 2025, at 10:27 AM, Georg Hansen <geo...@msn.com> wrote:
Georg Hansen
Sent: 06 February 2025 16:38
To: Georg Hansen <geo...@msn.com>
Cc: Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>; Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>; rob de laet <robd...@yahoo.com>; Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>; Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>; Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>; Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>; John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Tom Goreau
Around 20 years ago I gave some talks to Robert Kennedy’s Environmental Law class at Pace University on marine ecosystem regeneration.
He was totally opposed to offshore wind power because he thought he might see them on the horizon from his Hyannisport Mansion.
He set up the Riverkeepers project as a personal publicity vehicle to sue Westinghouse for contaminating the Hudson River with PCBs, and to launch his political career.
He was appointed Law Professor at Pace University soon after passing the Bar Exam to practice law, after failing the exam 10 or 12 times (it’s a matter of record, you can look it up but I don’t want to spend the time): you have to admire his Nixonian persistence!
Several people who have interacted with him personally, including the wife of a Harvard Medical School Professor, and local environmental officials, told me he is the “predator” his cousin, Caroline Kennedy says he is.
He is fundamentally anti-science, promoting not just ignorance but worse lies, frog-marching us into another Dark Age as he destroys medical research and prevention.
Roman rotted out from the barbarians within, not without, if you haven’t read Gibbon (1776).
.
Anastassia Makarieva
Seeing Forests Through Clouds https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.17208
Goessling et al. (1) link the record-breaking warming anomaly of 2023 to a global albedo decline due to reduced low-level cloud cover. What caused the reduction remains unclear. Goessling et al. considered several geophysical mechanisms, including ocean surface warming and declining aerosol emissions, but did not discuss the biosphere. We propose that disruption of global biospheric functioning could be a cause, as supported by three lines of evidence that have not yet been jointly considered.
- First, plant functioning plays a key role in cloud formation (2–7). In one model study, converting land from swamp to desert raised global temperature by 8 K due to reduced cloud cover (8). In the Amazon, the low-level cloud cover increases markedly with the photosynthetic activity of the underlying forest (9).
Second, in 2023, photosynthesis on land experienced a globally significant disruption, as signalled by the complete disappearance of the terrestrial carbon sink (10). Terrestrial ecosystems, which typically absorb approximately one-fourth of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, anomalously ceased this function. This breakdown was attributed to Canadian wildfires and the record-breaking drought in the Amazon (11).
Third, Goessling et al. focus on changes over oceans, but their maps show that some of the largest reductions in cloud cover in 2023 were over land, including over Amazonian and Congolian forests. Another cloud reduction hotspot is evident over Canada. Besides, precipitation over land in 2023 had a major negative anomaly, −0.08 mm/day (12).
Growing pressure on forests is known to induce nonlinear feedbacks, including abrupt changes in ecosystem functioning (13–15). Feedbacks of similar strength in global climate models are unknown (16). The biospheric breakdown in 2023 may have triggered massive cloud cover reduction facilitating the abrupt warming.
If verified, the good news is that the recent extra warmth could wane if the forests partially self-recover. With the many unknowns remaining, we urge more integrative thinking and emphasize the importance of urgently curbing forest exploitation to stabilize both the climate and the biosphere (17,18).
Anastassia M. Makarieva, Andrei V. Nefiodov, Antonio D. Nobre, Luz A. Cuartas, Paulo Nobre, Germán Poveda, José A. Marengo, Anja Rammig, Susan A. Masino, Ugo Bardi, Juan F. Salazar, William R. Moomaw, Scott R. Saleska (authors’ affiliations at https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.17208 )
Cited references
1. H. F. Goessling, T. Rackow, T. Jung, Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo. Science 387 (6729), 68–73 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adq7280
2. D. F. Zhao, et al., Environmental conditions regulate the impact of plants on cloud formation. Nat. Commun. 8 (1), 14067 (2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14067
3. T. Dror-Schwartz, I. Koren, O. Altaratz, R. Heiblum, On the abundance and common properties of continental, organized shallow (green) clouds. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 59 (6), 4570–4578 (2021), https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2020.3023085
4. S. Cerasoli, J. Yin, A. Porporato, Cloud cooling effects of afforestation and reforestation at midlatitudes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 118 (33), e2026241118 (2021), https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas. 2026241118
5. G. Duveiller, et al., Revealing the widespread potential of forests to increase low level cloud cover. Nat. Commun. 12, 4337 (2021), https://doi.org10.1038/s41467-021-24551-5
6. R. Xu, et al., Contrasting impacts of forests on cloud cover based on satellite observations. Nat. Commun. 13, 670 (2022), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28161-7
7. D. Ellison, J. Pokorný, M. Wild, Even cooler insights: On the power of forests to (water the Earth and) cool the planet. Glob. Change Biol. 30 (2), e17195 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17195
8. M. M. Laguë, G. R. Quetin, W. R. Boos, Reduced terrestrial evaporation increases atmospheric water vapor by generating cloud feedbacks. Environ. Res. Lett. 18 (7), 074021 (2023), https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acdbe1.
9. R. H. Heiblum, I. Koren, G. Feingold, On the link between Amazonian forest properties and shallow cumulus cloud fields. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 14 (12), 6063–6074 (2014), https://doi.org/10.5194/ acp-14-6063-2014
10. P. Ke, et al., Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023. Natl. Sci. Rev. 11 (12), nwae367 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwae367
11. J.-C. Espinoza, et al., The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features. Sci. Rep. 14 (1), 8107 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58782-5.
12. R. F. Adler, G. Gu, Global precipitation for the year 2023 and how it relates to longer term variations and trends. Atmosphere 15 (5), 535 (2024), https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050535
13. D. C. Zemp, et al., Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nat. Commun. 8, 14681 (2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14681
14. A. M. Makarieva, et al., The role of ecosystem transpiration in creating alternate moisture regimes by influencing atmospheric moisture convergence. Glob. Change Biol. 29 (9), 25362556 (2023), https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16644
15. B. M. Flores, et al., Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature 626 (7999), 555–564 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0
16. W. R. Boos, T. Storelvmo, Reply to Levermann et al.: Linear scaling for monsoons based on well-verified balance between adiabatic cooling and latent heat release. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 113 (17), E2350–E2351 (2016), https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1603626113
17. W. R. Moomaw, S. A. Masino, E. K. Faison, Intact forests in the United States: Proforestation mitigates climate change and serves the greatest good. Front. For. Glob. Change 2 (2019), https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2019.00027
18. A. M. Makarieva, A. V. Nefiodov, A. Rammig, A. D. Nobre, Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies. Front. For. Glob. Change 6 (2023), https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1150191
Tom Goreau
Are the 2024 anomalies yet out? The Amazon and Congo Basin droughts continued.
I fully agree with your analysis, but want to add that Tseloudis, Hansen, et al were clear that they were looking at changes over the ocean. I will soon post a preprint of the 2024 record sea surface temperature change patterns (sorry Anya, no land data!).
Tseloudis convincingly showed that the cloud free band is widening and the cloudy bands narrowing over the ocean, and suggested this was a contributor to warming. They did NOT claim that this was the ONLY factor, nor that the land was not important, only that they did not analyze that data.
I’m appalled, but not surprised about the Science editors bouncing this paper without explanation. Many scientists will tell you that all their most original papers were rejected without consideration by Science or Nature, but the really obvious ones were accepted. Albert Szent Gyorgyi said that when he got a paper accepted by Science or Nature he was really worried because it must have been trivial!
From:
Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>
Date: Thursday, February 6, 2025 at 11:30 AM
To: Georg Hansen <geo...@msn.com>
Cc: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>, Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>, rob de laet <robd...@yahoo.com>, Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>, Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>, Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>, Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>,
John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>, Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>, Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [ERA] Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] Hansen - Global Warming Has Accelerated
Dear colleagues,
I feel that many of us may not be on the same page. It's not about "natural carbon capture", it is about forests and clouds. Goessling et al. 2024 presented evidence that the anomalous warming in 2023 was due to an anomalous (not long term!) reduction in the low-level clouds. Please take a look where this reduction was located, over the Amazon and Congo forests.
Note that the low-level clouds are those clouds that definitely cool the Earth. High convective clouds including those studied by Tselioudis et al. 2024 can also warm the Earth due to their high greenhouse effect, and their net cooling effect is therefore smaller.
Below you will find a 300-words' commentary that an international team of scientists, including myself, working at the interface of ecology and climatology submitted to Science drawing attention to the fact that disruption of the biosphere could have resulted in the abruptly anomalous warming. Science declined to publish it without explanations. I don't understand this, can it be that someone authoritative has tabooed this topic? But the silence is becoming pathological, in my opinion. No one has ever mentioned the biosphere!
In the meantime, as Indonesia braces for clearcutting their forests for agriculture, let us prepare for another temperature spike while we are discussing measures that have not been possible, and won't be possible to take any time soon. Please take a look what happens to low-level clouds when forests are converted to pastures
rob de laet
Tom Goreau
Not fair to blame scientists equally with politicians and the energy industry!
IPCC is mainly slowed down by inertia, you are looking at what they said in the past, not what they would say right now in response to the data of the last two record years.
If they are honest scientists they will have changed their views to accommodate the facts as they see them NOW, not the documents they summarize from years before.
The fossil fuel industry shills appointed by governments to IPCC will toe the party line regardless of the facts.
It’s not clear to me that they are “muting dissenting views” as much as ignoring what they didn’t know (back then, they should have learned from experience if they are intelligent), and careful editing out of other points of view by governments in the final summaries (which are politically censored, not scientific documents, though they masquerade as them).
Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance
Chief Scientist, Blue Regeneration SL
President, Biorock Technology Inc.
Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK
37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139
gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Skype: tomgoreau
Tel: (1) 617-864-4226 (leave message)
Books:
Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase
http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466595392
Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration
http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466557734
Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change
No one can change the past, everybody can change the future
It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think
Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away
“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer
“The Earth is not dying, she is being killed” U. Utah Phillips
Russ Speer
rob de laet
Owen Allen
Given that the complexity of the biosphere and its feedbacks is huge, then there are two correlations that seem most useful:
1. The macro or big dynamical structures of the biosphere working at a global and regional level, so that national governments can design policy; and
2. Some sort of handle on the micro dynamics at a an eco-geological niche level so that States, cities, counties or local governments, environmental and rural and agricultural organisations can help constituents plan for crisis as well as the future.
cheers
Atherton
Qld 4883
Australia
+61 0423430941
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/owen59/
You ARE the Betterment of the World
Yes to many (peer reviewed) papers which describe a consistent strategy out of the mess we are in. You will do your SAI, we are working on the EAMO...
Hi Mike,
our Swiss newspapers are actually full of the Arctic story today. So, no, it is not true that media are not paying attention to this, at least not here. The problem is in fact, that nobody believes the story of possible cooling. And that is in fact not a media problem. Media report what established science tells them, and established science tells the eternal tale of ERA. And that story is, well, reported multiple times and ... boring.
We have to concentrate on IPCC. Without them changing the ERA story, it won't happen, neither SAI, nor EAMO, nor OIF nor anything...
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/ecorestoration-alliance/1686086760.9247718.1738849592827%40mail.yahoo.com.
rob de laet
- Revive ocean biology globally within ten years, restoring ocean food chains and increasing cloud cover for climate regulation.
- Green desert areas, particularly from the Thar Desert to the Sahara and Mediterranean, to connect monsoon moisture streams.
- Specific strategic reforestation in the Indian subcontinent to increase precipitation on the Third Pole, securing water and food for billions.
- Make a plan to reverse polar amplification by restoring Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, stabilizing jet streams, and exploring nature-based interventions such as reinforcing the biological pump of oceans.
Tom Goreau
My view of Gaia is that of Lynn Margulis, who I knew well, who made the concept scientifically sound at a time when Lovelock was being led down a mystical teleological garden path. This is much too long a discussion for now, sometime when we can meet.
Indigenous views are very complicated, almost every culture is unique! I wrote a chapter about adaptation of more than 20 Indigenous sea cultures I have worked with, including my own, Ngobe and Taino, for a book on Indigenous People and Climate Change.
My Dhuwa Yolngu Arnhem Land Aboriginal clan has the oldest memories in Australia, including the island they came from 65,000 years ago and all the places they lived that were drowned by the sea at the end of the last Ice Age, a historical path encoded in symbols in bark paintings my family preserves, which can only be shown to senior members of the clan. Hopefully the Yolngu will survive overshoot, but their ancient culture has been almost totally destroyed by missionaries, so they will have to relearn the survival skills they lost when they were given white bread, white flour, white rice, white sugar, and lard, causing diabetes. All we have left is the oldest and most complete barks, and a once in a generation funeral soon ahead of the senior clan leader (technically my grandfather’s nephew) when all this will be discussed. I will discuss climate overshoot adaptation, which won’t be a surprise to people with such long memories.
Afterwards, I plan to revisit the Gaia Hypothesis from the standpoint of Lynn Margulis’ amazing work on Symbiosis, and will talk more to her son, who has written several books about this.
rob de laet
Owen Allen
Thanks Rob,
That's great. Clear, precise, actionable.
bests
Atherton
Qld 4883
Australia
+61 0423430941
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/owen59/
You ARE the Betterment of the World
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/ecorestoration-alliance/616679486.9664041.1738914820461%40mail.yahoo.com.
Tom Goreau
Thanks, Manna, you’re right, I should have checked!
Westinghouse was responsible for failed nuclear reactors!
From:
Manna Jo Greene <man...@gmail.com>
Date: Saturday, February 8, 2025 at 5:28 AM
To: Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Subject: Re: [ERA] Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] Hansen - Global Warming Has Accelerated
Tom, i believe it was General Electric that released PCB's into the upper Hudson River.
Just FYI.
Many thanks,
Manna
Manna Jo Greene,
Ulster County Legislator,
District 19
Energy, Environment and Sustainability, Climate Smart, Recycling Oversight and UCRRA Reform Committees
Ulster County 70x30 Renewable Energy Implementation Plan Working Group
Tom Goreau
Weakened future surface warming in China due to national planned afforestation through biophysical feedback
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science volume 8, Article number: 42 (2025)
Abstract
A national-level afforestation plan has been announced by the Chinese government to combat global warming through carbon sequestration. However, the biophysical feedback of afforestation under future climate scenarios has not yet been assessed. Here, using the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) nested by the bias-corrected MPI-ESM1-2-HR model, we simulated how future afforestation regulated the land surface temperature (LST) in China. The results show that afforestation induces a significant cooling effect over the period 2041–2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, in particular in the cold season. The additional cooling effect offsets about 3.69% of the projected LST increase due to global warming and even overcompensates the LST increase in southwestern China. On the diurnal cycles, afforestation induces daytime cooling effects of −0.21 °C caused by increased latent heat fluxes, while nighttime warming effects of 0.05 °C induced mainly by cloud feedback. Our findings highlight the importance of the scientific identification of afforestation areas when developing land-management strategies and biophysical feedback for climate change mitigation.
From:
Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>
Date: Thursday, February 6, 2025 at 11:30 AM
To: Georg Hansen <geo...@msn.com>
Cc: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>, Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>, rob de laet <robd...@yahoo.com>, Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>, Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>, Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>, Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>,
John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>, Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>, Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [ERA] Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] Hansen - Global Warming Has Accelerated
Dear colleagues,
I feel that many of us may not be on the same page. It's not about "natural carbon capture", it is about forests and clouds. Goessling et al. 2024 presented evidence that the anomalous warming in 2023 was due to an anomalous (not long term!) reduction in the low-level clouds. Please take a look where this reduction was located, over the Amazon and Congo forests.
Note that the low-level clouds are those clouds that definitely cool the Earth. High convective clouds including those studied by Tselioudis et al. 2024 can also warm the Earth due to their high greenhouse effect, and their net cooling effect is therefore smaller.
Below you will find a 300-words' commentary that an international team of scientists, including myself, working at the interface of ecology and climatology submitted to Science drawing attention to the fact that disruption of the biosphere could have resulted in the abruptly anomalous warming. Science declined to publish it without explanations. I don't understand this, can it be that someone authoritative has tabooed this topic? But the silence is becoming pathological, in my opinion. No one has ever mentioned the biosphere!
In the meantime, as Indonesia braces for clearcutting their forests for agriculture, let us prepare for another temperature spike while we are discussing measures that have not been possible, and won't be possible to take any time soon. Please take a look what happens to low-level clouds when forests are converted to pastures
Tom Goreau
- Published: 05 March 2025
Impact of Amazonian deforestation on precipitation reverses between seasons
Nature volume 639, pages102–108 (2025)
Abstract
Tropical deforestation was found to cause large reductions in precipitation using a range of observation-based datasets1. However, the limitations of satellite-based space-for-time statistical analysis have hindered understanding of the roles of reshaped mesoscale atmospheric circulation and regional precipitation recycling at different scales. These effects are considered nonlocal effects, which are distinct from the local effects governed by deforestation-induced reductions in evapotranspiration (ET). Here we show reversed precipitation responses to Amazon deforestation across wet and dry seasons. During the wet season, deforested grids experienced a noteworthy increase in precipitation (0.96 mm month−1 per percentage point forest loss), primarily attributed to enhanced mesoscale atmospheric circulation (that is, nonlocal effect). These nonlocal increases weaken with distance from deforested grids, leading to significant precipitation reductions in buffers beyond 60 km. Conversely, during the dry season, precipitation decreases in deforested grids and throughout all analysis buffers, with local effects from reduced ET dominating. Our findings highlight the intricate balance between local effects and nonlocal effects in driving deforestation–precipitation responses across different seasons and scales and emphasize the urgent need to address the rapid and extensive loss of forest in the Amazon region.
I can download the full paper if anyone needs it.
From:
Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>
Date: Thursday, February 6, 2025 at 5:30 PM
To: Georg Hansen <geo...@msn.com>
Cc: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>, Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>, rob de laet <robd...@yahoo.com>, Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>, Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>, Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>, Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>,
John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>, Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>, Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [ERA] Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] Hansen - Global Warming Has Accelerated
Dear colleagues,
I feel that many of us may not be on the same page. It's not about "natural carbon capture", it is about forests and clouds. Goessling et al. 2024 presented evidence that the anomalous warming in 2023 was due to an anomalous (not long term!) reduction in the low-level clouds. Please take a look where this reduction was located, over the Amazon and Congo forests.
Note that the low-level clouds are those clouds that definitely cool the Earth. High convective clouds including those studied by Tselioudis et al. 2024 can also warm the Earth due to their high greenhouse effect, and their net cooling effect is therefore smaller.
Below you will find a 300-words' commentary that an international team of scientists, including myself, working at the interface of ecology and climatology submitted to Science drawing attention to the fact that disruption of the biosphere could have resulted in the abruptly anomalous warming. Science declined to publish it without explanations. I don't understand this, can it be that someone authoritative has tabooed this topic? But the silence is becoming pathological, in my opinion. No one has ever mentioned the biosphere!
In the meantime, as Indonesia braces for clearcutting their forests for agriculture, let us prepare for another temperature spike while we are discussing measures that have not been possible, and won't be possible to take any time soon. Please take a look what happens to low-level clouds when forests are converted to pastures
Tom Goreau
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Areas of deforestation in Amazonia affect rainfall patterns in both wet and dry seasons. In wet seasons heat from patches of cleared land
pushes air upward to create an area of low pressure (top). This draws moisture from neighbouring areas, increasing rainfall over the cleared land and reducing it elsewhere. During a dry season, less moisture enters the atmosphere, which reduces rainfall over
a wide region (bottom). (Nature
News & Views | 7 min read) |
Jon Schull
Rob Lewis
Tom Goreau
I sent the 8MB file but it was rejected because the file size was too large!
Oh well, it’s a really BIG subject.
I’m not sure who bounced it, but if you didn’t get it and need it, please let me know.
From:
Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Date: Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 9:48 AM
To: Jon Schull <jsc...@gmail.com>, Michael Lynn <mi...@easternecosystems.com>
Cc: Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>, Georg Hansen <geo...@msn.com>, Antonio Nobre <anob...@gmail.com>, Foster Brown <fbr...@woodwellclimate.org>, rob de laet <robd...@yahoo.com>, H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>, Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>,
Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>, Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>, Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>, Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>,
Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>, Foster Brown <fbr...@woodwellclimate.org>, dnep...@earthinnovation.org <dnep...@earthinnovation.org>
Subject: Re: [ERA] Amazonian moisture
Here it is
Tom Goreau
This recent posting on CDR list by my old colleague Dan Nepstad will be of great interest to many on this list.
Hi folks,
Nature-based solutions to climate change begin with terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks that are together removing about half of human carbon emissions from the atmosphere each year. The appropriate role of NBS is nothing less than managing these sinks to keep them as strong as possible. Some are easier to manage than others, of course.
There is no better place to illustrate this NBS potential than the Amazon, where the primary forest sink is weakening, but where degraded and secondary forests could be a major “new” forest carbon sink. . . IF we replicate proven approaches for preventing and controlling forest fire. The best way to fund the “management” of the Amazon forest carbon sink is through the sale of credits from the Jurisdictional REDD+ programs that are far advanced in the states of Acre, Pará, Tocantins, Mato Grosso, and Amazonas and beginning development in several regional governments of Peru and Bolivia. (We are supporting six of these processes.)
Getting these state-level strategies funded could deliver emissions reductions equivalent to 2-5% of current global emissions for a few decades—buying us critical time to take other CDR approaches to scale.
This is the main message of a recent lecture I gave at Oxford entitled “The Amazon Forest Climate Solution”. The video of the lecture is not very good quality, but I will be releasing a 10-min version soon and there is a paper under revision as well.
Dan Nepstad
Founder and Executive Director
Earth Innovation Institute
From:
Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>
Date: Thursday, February 6, 2025 at 11:30 AM
To: Georg Hansen <geo...@msn.com>
Cc: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>, Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>, rob de laet <robd...@yahoo.com>, Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>, Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>, Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>, Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>,
John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>, Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>, Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [ERA] Re: [prag] Re: [HPAC] Hansen - Global Warming Has Accelerated
Dear colleagues,
I feel that many of us may not be on the same page. It's not about "natural carbon capture", it is about forests and clouds. Goessling et al. 2024 presented evidence that the anomalous warming in 2023 was due to an anomalous (not long term!) reduction in the low-level clouds. Please take a look where this reduction was located, over the Amazon and Congo forests.
Note that the low-level clouds are those clouds that definitely cool the Earth. High convective clouds including those studied by Tselioudis et al. 2024 can also warm the Earth due to their high greenhouse effect, and their net cooling effect is therefore smaller.
Below you will find a 300-words' commentary that an international team of scientists, including myself, working at the interface of ecology and climatology submitted to Science drawing attention to the fact that disruption of the biosphere could have resulted in the abruptly anomalous warming. Science declined to publish it without explanations. I don't understand this, can it be that someone authoritative has tabooed this topic? But the silence is becoming pathological, in my opinion. No one has ever mentioned the biosphere!
In the meantime, as Indonesia braces for clearcutting their forests for agriculture, let us prepare for another temperature spike while we are discussing measures that have not been possible, and won't be possible to take any time soon. Please take a look what happens to low-level clouds when forests are converted to pastures
Tom Goreau
Amazon forest felled to build road for climate summit
8 hours ago
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Ione Wells
Belém, Brazil
0:33
Watch: Drone shots show scale of Amazon deforestation for COP30 road
A new four-lane highway cutting through tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest is being built for the COP30 climate summit in the Brazilian city of Belém.
It aims to ease traffic to the city, which will host more than 50,000 people - including world leaders - at the conference in November.
The state government touts the highway's "sustainable" credentials, but some locals and conservationists are outraged at the environmental impact.
The Amazon plays a vital role in absorbing carbon for the world and providing biodiversity, and many say this deforestation contradicts the very purpose of a climate summit.
Along the partially built road, lush rainforest towers on either side - a reminder of what was once there. Logs are piled high in the cleared land which stretches more than 13km (8 miles) through the rainforest into Belém.
Diggers and machines carve through the forest floor, paving over wetland to surface the road which will cut through a protected area.
BBC
/ Paulo Koba
Claudio Verequete lives about 200m from where the road will be. He used to make an income from harvesting açaí berries from trees that once occupied the space.
"Everything was destroyed," he says, gesturing at the clearing.
"Our harvest has already been cut down. We no longer have that income to support our family."
He says he has received no compensation from the state government and is currently relying on savings.
He worries the construction of this road will lead to more deforestation in the future, now that the area is more accessible for businesses.
"Our fear is that one day someone will come here and say: 'Here's some money. We need this area to build a gas station, or to build a warehouse.' And then we'll have to leave.
"We were born and raised here in the community. Where are we going to go?"
BBC
/ Paulo Koba
Claudio Verequete says the trees he harvested açaí from have been cut down
His community won't be connected to the road, given its walls on either side.
"For us who live on the side of the highway, there will be no benefits. There will be benefits for the trucks that will pass through. If someone gets sick, and needs to go to the centre of Belém, we won't be able to use it."
The road leaves two disconnected areas of protected forest. Scientists are concerned it will fragment the ecosystem and disrupt the movement of wildlife.
Prof Silvia Sardinha is a wildlife vet and researcher at a university animal hospital that overlooks the site of the new highway.
She and her team rehabilitate wild animals with injuries, predominantly caused by humans or vehicles.
BBC
/ Paulo Koba
Sloths are among the animals frequently needing treatment after injuries caused by humans
Once healed, they release them back into the wild – something she says will be harder if there is a highway on their doorstep.
"From the moment of deforestation, there is a loss.
"We are going to lose an area to release these animals back into the wild, the natural environment of these species," she said.
"Land animals will no longer be able to cross to the other side too, reducing the areas where they can live and breed."
The Brazilian president and environment minister say this will be a historic summit because it is "a COP in the Amazon, not a COP about the Amazon".
The president says the meeting will provide an opportunity to focus on the needs of the Amazon, show the forest to the world, and present what the federal government has done to protect it.
But Prof Sardinha says that while these conversations will happen "at a very high level, among business people and government officials", those living in the Amazon are "not being heard".
The state government of Pará had touted the idea of this highway, known as Avenida Liberdade, as early as 2012, but it had repeatedly been shelved because of environmental concerns.
Now a host of infrastructure projects have been resurrected or approved to prepare the city for the COP summit.
Adler Silveira, the state government's infrastructure secretary, listed this highway as one of 30 projects happening in the city to "prepare" and "modernise" it, so "we can have a legacy for the population and, more importantly, serve people for COP30 in the best possible way".
Speaking to the BBC, he said it was a "sustainable highway" and an "important mobility intervention".
He added it would have wildlife crossings for animals to pass over, bike lanes and solar lighting. New hotels are also being built and the port is being redeveloped so cruise ships can dock there to accommodate excess visitors.
Brazil's federal government is investing more than $81m (£62m) to expand the airport capacity from "seven to 14 million passengers". A new 500,000 sq-m city park, Parque da Cidade, is under construction. It will include green spaces, restaurants, a sports complex and other facilities for the public to use afterwards.
BBC
/ Paulo Koba
João Alexandre Trindade da Silva hopes COP30 will leave a great legacy for the people of Pará state
Some business owners in the city's vast open-air Ver-o-peso market agree that this development will bring opportunities for the city.
"The city as a whole is being improved, it is being repaired and a lot of people are visiting from other places. It means I can sell more and earn more," says Dalci Cardoso da Silva, who runs a leather shoe stall.
He says this is necessary because when he was young, Belém was "beautiful, well-kept, well cared for", but it has since been "abandoned" and "neglected" with "little interest from the ruling class".
João Alexandre Trindade da Silva, who sells Amazonian herbal medicines in the market, acknowledges that all construction work can cause problems, but he felt the future impact would be worth it.
"We hope the discussions aren't just on paper and become real actions. And the measures, the decisions taken, really are put into practice so that the planet can breathe a little better, so that the population in the future will have a little cleaner air."
That will be the hope of world leaders too who choose to attend the COP30 summit.
Scrutiny is growing over whether flying thousands of them across the world, and the infrastructure required to host them, is undermining the cause.
Tom Goreau
You can see the albedo effect of deforestation clearly from the video:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9vy191rgn1o
You can’t see the conversion of latent heat to sensible heat, though you certainly feel it!
Tom Goreau
They will say it is geoengineering albedo modification project to cool the earth by getting rid of pesky weeds with dark leaves that suck up sun, and replacing it with very pale bleached infertile soil that reflects so much light that you inadvertently cry from the glare if you glance at your feet!
From:
Brian von Herzen <br...@climatefoundation.org>
Date: Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 6:02 PM
To: Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Cc: Anastassia Makarieva <ammak...@gmail.com>, Georg Hansen <geo...@msn.com>, Daniel Nepstad <dnep...@earthinnovation.org>, Antonio Nobre <anob...@gmail.com>, Foster Brown <fbr...@woodwellclimate.org>, rob de laet <robd...@yahoo.com>, H simmens
<hsim...@gmail.com>, Chris Robert <robert...@gmail.com>, Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>, Oswald Petersen <oswald....@hispeed.ch>, Robbie Tulip <robbi...@gmail.com>, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>, Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>,
Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>, Alliance EcoRestoration <ecorestorat...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [prag] Re: BBC: Amazon forest felled to build road for climate summit
Thank you Tom, It is Very concerning to see All that is being done in the name of climate disruption, destroying the very resource that cop30 putatively seeks to conserve.
Brian.
Tom Goreau
That’s a joke, of course, because the huge increase in sensible heat caused by lack of evapotranspiration makes it unbearably hot, overwhelming cooling caused by increased reflectivity. But they would make that kind of claim, wouldn’t they?