Fwd: Sharekhan Investor's Eye dated May 25, 2006

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Sunil

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May 25, 2006, 10:09:01 PM5/25/06
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Investor's Eye
[May 25, 2006] Please see the attachment for details
Summary of Contents
 

STOCK UPDATE

ICI India 
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy 
Price target: Rs420
Current market price: Rs335

Colours shine bright 

Result highlights

  • ICI India Ltd (IIL) has reported a strong set of numbers for both Q4FY2006 and FY2006.
  • The net revenues adjusted for the discontinued rubber chemical business grew by 20.7% year on year (yoy).
  • The operating profit grew by 30% yoy as the operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 214 basis points. While the transfer of the rubber chemical business to a joint venture aided part of the OPM expansion, operational efficiencies also contributed to the same.
  • The profit before tax (PBT) and extraordinary items grew by 32.6% to Rs15.7 crore.
  • For FY2006, IIL's consolidated revenues grew by a 17% yoy. The operating profit grew by 46% yoy as the OPM expanded by 250 basis points. The profit after tax (PAT; adjusted for extraordinary items) grew by 23% yoy to Rs61.2 crore.
  • IIL has a right to acquire the balance 49% stake in its subsidiary, Quest International, at any time after April 2006. Though IIL has not exercised the right yet, but the company plans to acquire the same in the future.
  • At the current market price of Rs335, the stock trades at 14.1x its FY2008E earnings per share (EPS) and 6.7x FY2008E enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with the price target of Rs420.

Lupin  
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy 
Price target: Rs1,130 
Current market price: Rs1,042

On growth track 

Event

  • Lupin has announced that the US Food and Drug Administration has approved the company's abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for Cefdinir capsules 300mg.
  • Lupin has announced that it has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to acquire a 51% equity stake in Artifex Finance CVA, Belgium, and its subsidiaries including Dafra Pharma, a Belgian pharmaceutical company focused on anti-malarials.

Crompton Greaves 
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy 
Price target: Rs1,144
Current market price: Rs1,049

Price target revised to Rs1,144 

Result highlights

  • Crompton Greaves' stand-alone revenues grew by 27.8% in Q4FY2006 to Rs798.3 crore backed by the strong performance of all its three divisions: power systems (revenue up 31.2%), consumer products (revenue up 27.0%) and industrial systems (revenue up 20.3%). 
  • The stand-alone operating profit margin (OPM) improved by 290 basis points year on year (yoy) in the quarter to 10.7%, driven by strong order booking, stable material costs and the leverage effect that came into play during the quarter.
  • For Q4FY2006 the profit before interest and tax (PBIT) margin of the power system division grew by ten basis points to 9.4%. That of the consumer product division grew by 130 basis points to 10.9%. The industrial system division's PBIT margin grew by 80 basis points to 12.2%.
  • The stand-alone net profit (before extraordinary items) grew by 85.1% to Rs66.1 crore, driven partly by the strong performance of its three segments and partly by the 85.4% year-on-year jump in the other income to Rs11.9 crore.
  • Pauwel posted a net profit (before extraordinary) of Rs63.0 crore on sales of Rs1,606 crore for FY2006. It saw a smart turn-around, as the company was making losses when it was acquired in May last year. Pauwel's results were better than expected, generating a positive surprise on the consolidated net profit front.
  • The consolidated order backlog for Crompton Greaves stood at Rs2,950 crore at the end of FY2006 (including Rs1,450 crore of Pauwel) which is 0.7x FY2006 consolidated revenues.
  • Pauwel has shown a remarkable turn-around in performance, reporting a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs63.0 crore, way ahead of estimates. We believe this is just the beginning and expect Pauwel to report a smart improvement in its margins and boost the consolidated performance of Crompton Greaves. We maintain a Buy on the stock with a revised price target of Rs1,144, discounting its FY2008E consolidated earnings by 18x.

 

Ashok Leyland 
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy 
Price target: Rs53
Current market price: Rs38

Margins may expand 
We recently attended the analyst meet of Ashok Leyland Ltd (ALL). The key takeaways from the same are mentioned. 

 

 
Regards,
The Sharekhan Research Team
myac...@sharekhan.com  


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