I have been watching, and starting to share my
opinion with our students that we are going to see some
'interesting' accidents at Cape Lookout in the coming season.
Seems Bingen is on the list too. Those that have been around long
enough can recognize the waxing and waning
cycle of accidents we seem to have. (At
least I think I can...) Seems we have a few good accidents, and
folks take heed and start flying more conservatively. After a while,
such things fade from memory, combined with a new, fresh pilot crop,
and we start to inadvertently set things in motion for the next
round of accidents.
For me, Cape Lookout has been raising the red flag high lately.
There are currently quite a few folks that have the experience to
take a 5 second glance and the ocean and the sky 'out front' and
have a very good idea what's to come. They have also logged the
hours to 'confirm' that their analyses have been correct. I have
watched as trips to the point have gone from a rare, special, and
well considered event, to a more normal and almost average thing to
do. (If I haven't flown out to the point yet, what's wrong with
me?")
Flying out to the point is obviously a higher risk endeavor. I
expect that most who do it haven't really considered all the
potential variables that could make things go unpleasantly sideways.
With so many folks flying out that way, it's easy to just become
part of the herd. A common expression I use in ground school is
"Don't be the pilot that other pilots look to, to see if the wind is
increasing..." (Or in the case of Cape Lookout, decreasing,
increasing, or going more north.)
I think Steve F. and Ancil could actually agree that, back in the
day, when we all started, we all spent a great deal more time
analyzing conditions than most pilots do now. It was pretty normal
to sit on launch chatting with our fellow pilot (pilots?) for 4
hours prior to launching, just trying to make sure we had considered
everything and we had a very good idea of what the weather patterns
were going to be. We really don't do that anymore, and it's not even
that it's completely necessary anymore. But for younger and more
experienced pilots alike, it might be a good thing to once in a
while, just sit on the hill and consider what an over zealous
estimation of the days weather could bring. Not just at Cape
Lookout, but at any of the sites we fly.
Taking a brief intermission from putting together my presentation to
the Oregon Dept. of Aviation on Thursday. Hoping to head out with a
student as soon as the sky clears a bit. Back to work now...
Brad