Forget thermals this time of year, and look for not-too-stable conditions. At Marys you are way above the inversion. The lapse rate is neutral, good enough to avoid serious compression over the summit and give you some ridge lift, if the wind is right. But forecasting winds above 4000 feet is not very reliable. For today at Marys Peak, NOAA says light and variable (probable forward launch), GFS says light SW (maybe soarable but probably extended sled rides) and NAM says stronger SW (soarable, if you can launch).
Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 10:47:42 -0700
Subject: Re: CPC: today
Would you mind explaining the reasoning for a favorable forecast at Mary's? When I looked at the MM5 it showed a wicked inversion at about 1700' and isn't launch at 4000 or so?
The lapse rate above the inversion was at about the DALR so, not promising to me for flying thermals above the inversion either.
I'm just wondring what I'm missing.
On Oct 18, 2012 9:38 AM, "Steed family" <steedfam...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Probably a primo day on Marys Peak -- too bad no one will be there to confirm.