Media Monitor 18 November 2009

National Union of Mineworkers' (NUM) spokesman Lesiba Seshoka told the newspaper it was considering its legal options after receiving a section 189 notice earlier this week that about 2000 people would be affected.

"We have taken the documents to our attorneys and it will depend on how they advise us."

The main reasons for the shutdowns included the strong rand's effect on costs per kilogram of gold produced and the fact that shafts are now producing low grade ore.

Harmony Gold spokeswoman Marian van der Walt told the newspaper the NUM was jumping the gun.

"We are still looking at alternatives. We are not saying there will be retrenchments. We are looking at options. I know the fear is that there will be retrenchments."

According to Van der Walt, 2100 workers would be affected by the closing of operations for three Evander shafts as well as the President Brand shaft. Harmony Gold had only met recently with the unions to inform them.

http://www.timeslive.co.za/business/article196191.ece

1.2 Parliament job cuts - union up in arms

Siyabonga Mkhwanazi, Daily News, 17 November 2009

A union affiliated to Cosatu is holding emergency talks with the ANC's parliamentary leadership in an attempt to stave off the retrenchment of half of the ruling party's caucus staff.

Dozens of ANC employees learned yesterday that they would have to re-apply for their positions.

This resulted in the intervention of the National Education, Health and Allied Workers Union (Nehawu) provincial leadership, which asked for an urgent meeting with ANC deputy chief whip Bulelani Magwanishe, MP Eric Kholwane and head of caucus Livhuwani Matsila.

While Western Cape Nehawu provincial secretary Suraya Jawooden confirmed the meeting with the ANC over the question of impending job slashes, she declined to give details until the negotiations were concluded.

"We are in the process of negotiating a new structure. We are busy in negotiations with the ANC."

Although Nehawu said that they were talking to the ANC, Matsila said they hoped to start with the process of interviewing staff for the few available positions today.

Matsila said Nehawu had expressed concern about the loss of jobs for some of the employees, who would not be retained in the new structure.

"We will find alternative employment (for retrenched staff) in ANC structures. The longer we delay the appointment (of successful candidates), the more it becomes a serious situation for us. We said (to Nehawu) we would need to move swiftly with the interviews (and) Nehawu has understood," Matsila said.

He gave the assurance that those who would not be retained after the end of November would be paid their December salaries to ensure they would not struggle financially over the Christmas period.

The caucus leadership had been talking with the union since May, a month after the elections, when the contracts of the staff came to an end after the expiry of the term of the third Parliament, he explained.

The ruling party was prompted to cut 103 jobs in the caucus after it lost 33 seats - from 297 to 264 MPs - in the National Assembly and was given a lesser budget allocation by the Independent Electoral Commission.

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=6&art_id=vn20091117104402409C254355

2 Interest rates

2.1 Cosatu disappointed at SARB’s rate decision

Citizen, 18 November 2009

The Congress of SA Trade Unions was “extremely disappointed” at the SA Reserve Bank’s decision on Tuesday to leave the repo rate unchanged.

The SARB’s newly appointed governor Gill Marcus announced at a briefing that the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had decided to leave the key repo rate unchanged at seven percent.

“It is a great missed opportunity to promote growth and create jobs through a decisive cut in rates.

“This could have given a lifeline to firms which are struggling to survive, by cutting their cost of borrowing, and thus saved hundreds of jobs,” Cosatu said.

It said a rate cut could also have given a stimulus to new job-creating investment by cutting the cost of borrowing start-up capital.

“It could have eased the burden on individuals and households who are battling to pay the interest on their bonds and loans.”

Cosatu said Marcus “gave no reasons” for her decision and appeared to be “still tied to the mistaken belief of her predecessor” that inflation remained the main challenge facing the bank and the country, even though inflation was now on its way down.

“It is obvious that the main problem the country faces is the economic recession and the massive levels of joblessness, and not inflation,” Cosatu said.

It added that this was the reason the Alliance Summit held on the weekend had called for a review of monetary policy.

“This has now become even more urgent,” Cosatu said.

It added that it would do everything possible to implement the Summit’s resolution as quickly as possible and to persuade the Reserve Bank that the country could not afford the current levels of interest rates any longer.

Marcus said at Tuesday’s briefing that she welcomed debate around the SARB’s focus and mandate. – Sapa

http://www.citizen.co.za/index/article.aspx?pDesc=110433,1,22

2.2 Reserve Bank will not weaken rand

Ethel Hazlehurst, Business Report, 18 November 2009

South Africa's central bank will not attempt to weaken the rand. That was the clear message yesterday from the new Reserve Bank governor, Gill Marcus, in the face of increasing pressure to curb the currency's strength.

"There is no way the bank will intervene to achieve a certain exchange rate. That would be inappropriate," she said at a press conference after announcing the decision of the monetary policy committee (MPC) to keep the bank's repo rate at 7 percent.

The repo rate has been cut by 5 percentage points since December, after a similar hike between June 2006 and last June.

Marcus said she was concerned about the effect of the strong currency on the economy, but also pointed out its beneficial impact on inflation.

The currency, which had weakened to R7.48 to the dollar earlier in the day in response to comments by industrialist Cyril Ramaphosa that the rand should be much weaker, recovered temporarily but then resumed its fall to close at R7.44, 12c down on the day.

The meeting was the first to be chaired by new governor Marcus, who took over from former governor Tito Mboweni a little more than a week ago.

And it came after a weekend decision by the ANC and its alliance partners that the Reserve Bank's mandate should be reviewed. The alliance partners - trade union federation Cosatu and the SACP - have been pressing for the mandate to be broadened from a single target of price stability to include economic growth and job creation.

On whether the bank's mandate should change, Marcus said she did not want to pre-empt discussions on the issue.

"We will engage with those who have concerns and see what we achieve."

But she said a central bank's mandate, whether implicit or explicit, was to combat inflation.

Targeting was one way to achieve this objective but it was not the only tool available to a central bank, she said.

Consumer inflation has been above the 3 percent to 6 percent target since March 2007. It was 6.1 percent in September.

Marcus would not be drawn on future MPC decisions and said only that they would be determined by events.

Razia Khan, the head of Africa research at Standard Chartered, noted that forward rate agreements (FRAs) "have moved away from pricing in any possibility of a rate cut, however small". FRAs are three-month contracts that run at some time in the future.

Marcus stressed the need for broad engagement on economic issues. The world "is not the same as before, we have to meet the challenges of the time".

She singled out Eskom's proposed tariff increases as a major source of uncertainty about inflation. The electricity utility has asked for three annual tariff increases of 45 percent each. But this spectre is receding in the face of political opposition.

"We welcome the fact that the minister concerned and the treasury is engaging with Eskom. We all recognise there has to be a price increase but it's the manner in which it is done that is important."

She highlighted the need for a co-ordinated national programme to deal with problems relating to inflation, economic growth and unemployment.

"We have a task within that programme," she said.

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=3429651&fSectionId=629&fSetId=662

2.3 Marcus Holds Rate at 7%; Will Discuss Inflation Range

Nasreen Seria and Vernon Wessels, Bloomberg, 17 November 2009

Gill Marcus left South Africa’s benchmark interest rate unchanged in her first decision as governor, while agreeing to discuss broadening the central bank’s mandate as unions demand rate cuts to spur growth.

The repurchase rate was kept at 7 percent for the third meeting, Marcus said in a televised speech from Pretoria today. That was in line with the forecast of 21 of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rest expected a half-point cut.

The Congress of South African Trade Unions, which backed President Jacob Zuma in his election bid, wants the Reserve Bank to reduce interest rates to help pull the economy out of its first recession in 17 years and stem job losses. Marcus, who doesn’t have much room to cut rates as energy costs increase, agreed to discuss a review of the bank’s mandate of keeping inflation within the 3 percent to 6 percent target.

“We don’t see it as an immediate threat to the inflation- targeting framework,” said Carmen Nel, an economist at Rand Merchant Bank in Cape Town. “Inflation will be one of the Reserve Bank’s main

missions” even if the mandate is widened to include a consideration of economic growth. The ruling African National Congress and its alliance partners, Cosatu and the South African Communist Party, proposed at a summit over the weekend that the mandate of the central bank be reviewed.

Challenge.

“This isn’t about kow-towing to anybody or the alliance summit saying that we will change the mandate,” Marcus told reporters in Pretoria today. “It’s an engagement of what are the challenges we face as a country.”

The rand was little changed at 7.4469 against the dollar as of 5:02 p.m. in Johannesburg from 7.4490 before Marcus began speaking. The yield on the R157 government bond, due 2015, was unchanged at 8.37 percent.

The Reserve Bank canceled its December MPC meeting and will return to meeting every second month in 2010, Marcus said.

Labor unions had called for a 2 percentage point rate cut, in part to help weaken the rand after it surged 29 percent against the dollar this year, hurting exports. South Africa’s benchmark rate compares with 1 percent in the euro region and between zero and 0.25 percent in the U.S., making local interest-bearing assets more attractive to foreign investors.

“Cosatu is extremely disappointed,” the labor federation said in an e-mailed statement. “It is a great missed opportunity to promote growth and create jobs.”

Exchange Rate

The economy shed 484,000 jobs in the third quarter, pushing up the unemployment rate to 24.5 percent, the highest of 62 countries tracked by Bloomberg. Miners such as Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world’s biggest producer of the metal, and manufacturers including Volkswagen AG, have fired thousands of workers this year as export demand slumped.

Marcus said today the central bank won’t target a specific level of the rand.

“The central bank does not intervene in the market to achieve a level of what the exchange rate should be,” Marcus said. “That must be absolutely clear.”

There are signs the economy may be recovering with the help of six rate cuts since December. Manufacturing output, which accounts for 14 percent of the economy, fell 11.4 percent in September, the smallest drop since December, the statistics agency said on Nov. 10. Car sales fell at their slowest pace in 16 months in October, dropping 16.9 percent from a year ago, an industry body said on Nov. 3.

Inflation Forecast

Inflation, which slowed for a seventh consecutive month in September, reaching 6.1 percent, has exceeded the target for more than two years. The central bank said today it expects inflation to return to the target range “on a sustained basis” by the second quarter of 2010 and remain there until the final quarter of 2011.

Electricity price increases pose the main threat to inflation, Marcus said. Eskom Holdings Ltd., the state-owned power utility, has been allowed to raise tariffs by 45 percent annually over the next three years.

“The Reserve Bank seems worried about electricity price increases,” in particular the “second-round” impact this may have on prices, said Nel. “They will keep the repo rate on hold for longer.”

Marcus, 60, became the ninth governor of the 88-year-old central bank on Nov. 9, replacing Tito Mboweni, who declined to serve a third term. She was deputy governor from 1999 to 2004 and was most recently chairwoman of Absa Group Ltd., South Africa’s biggest retail bank.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aO44k5A4lVZg

2.4 Cosatu slams Gill Marcus

JP du Plessis, Eyewitness News, 18 November 2009

A flat repo rate is good news for home buyers, estate agents said on Tuesday.

However, not everyone is happy with the decision to leave interest rates unchanged - trade union federation Cosatu has accused the Reserve Bank of ignoring the plight of the poor.

On Tuesday, new Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus announced the bank is keeping the repo rate at seven percent.

Colliers Residential’s Brian Falconer said the flat rate was good news for the housing market.

“Inflation certainly looks under control. Yes, we have got concerns about Eskom but the residential property market has come off the bottom,” said Falconer.

Cosatu’s Patrick Craven said Marcus was following in the footsteps of former governor Tito Mboweni who focused on inflation targeting.

“It is a great missed opportunity for a new governor to turn a new leaf and move away from the very conservative and cautious policies of her predecessor,” said Craven.

http://www.eyewitnessnews.co.za/articleprog.aspx?id=26610

2.5 Gill Marcus takes her first lashing from Cosatu

Ray Hartley, Times, 17 November 2009

IT’S like a rite of passage for anyone appointed to a government job dealing with the economy and Gill Marcus was no exception.

In her first announcement on interest rates, she said there were insufficient grounds for a rate cut.
Cosatu let her have it, saying: “It is a great missed opportunity to promote growth and create
jobs through a decisive cut in rates. This could have given a lifeline to firms which are struggling
to survive, by cutting their cost of borrowing, and thus saved hundreds of jobs.”

This from the Sapa report:
Marcus, said the federation, was “still tied to the mistaken belief of her predecessor” that inflation remained the main challenge facing the bank and the country, even though inflation was now on its way down.

“It is obvious that the main problem the country faces is the economic recession and the massive levels of joblessness, and not inflation,” Cosatu said. It added that this was the reason the Alliance Summit held on the weekend had called for a review of monetary policy.

“This has now become even more urgent,” Cosatu said.

http://blogs.timeslive.co.za/hartley/2009/11/18/gill-marcus-takes-her-first-lashing-from-cosatu/

3 Alliance

3.1 ANC calls for action on Transkei shootout

Bongani Hans, Dispatch, 17 November 2009

A SHOOTING incident at an ANC meeting in Transkei on Sunday has angered both the party’s national and provincial structures, which have called for the suspension of “hooligan” party members.

The shooting caused deputy minister of Science and Technology Derek Hanekom to abandon the ANC meeting at the old Lusikisiki College of Education, which was aimed at mending rifts between two factions of the Ingquza Hill sub-region of the ANC.

Chaos erupted during the meeting when a gunman opened fire.

Four people were seriously injured by the gunfire.

ANC national spokesperson Jackson Mthembu said the action of members in the sub-region would not be tolerated. “Criminals are not welcome in the ANC. Members of the ANC who bring weapons are not welcome (at) our meetings.”

The province had “our strong mandate to deal with the matter,” he added.

Four people were arrested after the gun battle, but three were released. Police confiscated two 9mm pistols and an R5 rifle.

Police spokesperson Captain Mduduzi Godlwana said no further arrests had been made and police were still investigating.

A delegation consisting of the party’s national executive committee (NEC) and provincial executive committee (PEC) will visit Ingquza Hill next week to address the problems in the local municipality.

PEC member Xolile Nqatha, who was with Hanekom inside a hall when the shooting erupted outside, said yesterday that the incident had shocked him.

Eastern Cape ANC spokesperson Mlibo Qoboshiyane condemned the action by party members.

“Who will like to be led by a person who can shoot to kill? We don’t want to have that kind of individual,” said Qoboshiyane.

“An NEC and Eastern Cape PEC delegation will next week visit the area to address challenges, which include political intolerance and factionalism behind the in-fighting.

“The ANC will take appropriate action against those who continue to engage in destabilising its structures. We are committed to ensure that ANC programmes and effective functioning of our structures in the Ingquza Hill sub-region or elsewhere in the country, (are) not disrupted by criminal elements or factions within our ranks.”

Qoboshiyane said the ANC in-fighting would affect service delivery in Ingquza Hill Municipality .

“Members are fighting because they are not happy with service delivery. Some want tenders while others want to have control ... (of) the ANC. Those who are outside the office are fighting tooth and nail to get inside, while there are those who are closing the doors,” he said.

Qoboshiyane said the ANC constitution “is clear, that nobody goes into the party meetings armed with pangas and knives”.

He described the ANC Ingquza Hill sub-region as the worst in the OR Tambo region when it came to political intolerance.

Attempts to get comment from Hanekom were unsuccessful yesterday, as he was in a meeting in Pretoria.

http://www.dispatch.co.za/article.aspx?id=360576

3.2 Mantashe must pick a side

Dual leadership roles in ANC and SACP self-defeating

S'Thembiso Msomi, Times, 17 November 2009

Moments before the start of a meeting two Mondays ago between the ANC and its alliance partner, the SA Communist Party, a colleague of mine asked Gwede Mantashe: "Whom will you be representing at the meeting?"

Mantashe answered: "Mondays are ANC days."

The colleague's question goes to the heart of the debate surrounding Mantashe's dual - and sometimes conflicting - roles as ANC secretary-general and SACP national chairman. Given his answer to this question, and the fact that he usually plays his SACP role on Fridays, isn't it fair to assume that when Mantashe arrived at Esselen Park last Friday for the start of the alliance summit, he was wearing his communist hat?

Judging by this weekend's news reports on the summit, ANC Youth League president Julius Malema and Gauteng Premier Nomvula Mokonyane are among the ANC leaders who suspected that this is the case.

According to the Sunday Times, Mantashe was hauled over the coals at an ANC caucus meeting held on the sidelines of the summit that afternoon for apparently not being firm in rejecting Cosatu and the SACP's demand for equal status in the running of both the alliance and the country.

For the past five decades of the alliance's existence, it has been accepted that the ANC is the leader.

But at the summit, Cosatu, and presumably the SACP, wanted an endorsement of a proposal by the alliance secretariat that the three parties - and not just the ANC - be jointly proclaimed the "centre of power".

The alliance secretariat is made up of the Cosatu and SACP general-secretaries - Zwelinzima Vavi and Blade Nzimande respectively - and Mantashe in his ANC capacity.

Whether Mantashe did indeed attempt to sign away the ANC's status as the alliance's senior partner is neither here nor there.

What matters is that his ANC colleagues are beginning to question his ability to wholeheartedly defend the ruling party's interests in disputes with the SACP, seeing that he is also chairman of the communist outfit.

Granted, the uneasiness over Mantashe's two hats could be fuelled by a desire by a cabal at Luthuli House to rid the party's top leadership of "leftist" individuals.

To his credit, Mantashe has demonstrated that he is not hindered by his SACP role and his Cosatu background in carrying out his ANC responsibilities.

We have seen him publicly admonish both the trade union federation and the SACP when they attempted to bully the ANC on contentious issues.

But as long as he continues to serve two masters Mantashe cannot be effective at either job.

With the SACP heading for a special national congress next month, it is an opportune time for the former trade unionist to reconsider his options.

When it was first pointed out that his two posts could lead to a conflict of interest, the communists defended him by pointing to alliance history.

Often quoted was the example of Moses Kotane, the late SACP general secretary who doubled up as ANC treasurer-general in the 1960s.

But those were the exile days, in a cold-war era in which a liberation movement could benefit immensely from the socialist block by flaunting its communist credentials.

Today the ANC is a ruling party in the most advanced capitalist state in Africa and governs in an era in which the world socialist project is in tatters.

Mantashe is not the first communist to occupy a top ANC position in the post-apartheid era.

The difference is that most of those before him did not take up top SACP posts once they accepted ANC office.

Take his ANC predecessor, the current deputy president, Kgalema Motlanthe, who - despite his long-standing SACP membership - chose to serve only the ruling party in a leadership capacity.

Looking at it from their perspective, the communists have as much right to run for office in the ANC as any non-communist member of the "broad church".

After all, they have contributed as much as any of the other political tendencies to making the ANC the titanic political force that it has become. It would be self-defeating for them to abandon the ship now that it is sailing on smooth seas of governance.

But Mantashe might soon find himself in choppy waters if he continues to straddle the two positions. He should do the wise thing and vacate his SACP office.

http://www.timeslive.co.za/opinion/columnists/article198636.ece

3.3 Zuma must distance himself from Malema

Patrick Laurence, Cape Argus., 17 November 2009

A warning uttered recently by Zwelinzima Vavi, Cosatu general secretary, should ring alarm bells for President Jacob Zuma, even though Vavi, an ideologue par excellence, might have been motivated by more than comradely concern for Zuma and his administration.

Addressing the South African Municipal Workers Union, Vavi warned that the credibility of the Zuma administration with the poorer sectors of the black community is in danger of evaporating and, concomitantly, the patience of residents in woefully or badly served townships is approaching breaking point.

The warning was meant to nudge Zuma to the left, politically speaking, and to serve as a reminder to him that deferred promises often lead to disillusionment, anger and alienation, while, of course, increasing the vulnerability of the poor to the demagogues who seem to abound in the townships in times of recession and hardship.

'Greed could destroy the ANC if not checked'

Judging by the string of delivery protests that erupted within weeks of Zuma's inauguration, particularly in Mpumalanga, black people in neglected or relatively neglected townships and informal settlements are not prepared to wait patiently for the Zuma administration to fulfil its election manifesto pledges.

Action, including the seizure of putatively corrupt local councillors as hostages and the burning of their offices, seems to have become a predictable township response in South Africa today, as it was during the last years of white rule.

To quote a resident of Sakile, a township near Standerton in Mpumalanga that attracted national and even international attention during its protest against poor living conditions and the alleged venality of local officials: "We don't see any changes. We thought Zuma could do better. So now we have to step up protests, thinking of the future of our children."

The task facing Zuma is not made easier by the profligacy of his administration, as manifest by the size of his cabinet (there are 34 ministers and roughly the same number of deputy ministers) and their willingness (with one or two honourable exceptions) to spend every last cent of the public money available to them on the purchase of expensive vehicles. While Zuma is inclined to speak about the need for frugality in the present difficult financial climate, his ministers are wont to spend taxpayers' money as if there were no tomorrow.

They are as greedy, if not more greedy, than the men and women who served in Thabo Mbeki's cabinet. The materialism that Mbeki rallied against seems as prevalent under Zuma as it was under Mbeki. Like France's Bourbon kings, the ANC's leader seem to have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. It is worth noting en passant that Zuma has warned his comrades that greed could destroy the ANC if not checked. His words, like those of Mbeki before him, seem to have fallen on the proverbial deaf ears.

Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe has accused the media of making an unjustified fuss about the use of public money to purchase limousines worth up to or even more than R1-million for the ministers. His argument, judging by his comments on television, is that even if the budget was limited to R200 000, it would still be seen as an incredibly large amount to poorer citizens and, his argument implies, might be as offensive to them as R1m or more.

Motlanthe, however, seems to underestimate the intelligence of the poor. They are quite capable of appreciating the difference between a R200 000 vehicle and one that is five times as expensive. It is lordly arrogance to assume that they cannot differentiate between the relatively modest vehicle chosen by Pravin Gordhan and the expensive million-plus luxury cars favoured by Trevor Manuel and Blade Nzimande.

An addendum is in order. As a respected former finance minister, Manuel should have showed the way by choosing a less-expensive car. So, too, should Nzimande to establish his bona fides as a communist committed to the notion of equality.

The "fat cats" in the ANC who have forsaken their commitment to uplifting the poor in reality while paying lip service to it, should take note of the call by the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa) for the "nationalisation" of the wealth of those whom its general secretary, Castro Ngobese, labels "obscenely" rich.

Numsa's call to dispossess these rich of what it regards as ill-gotten gains is a reminder of Cosatu's slogan of the 1980s: Apartheid and capitalism - two sides of the same bloody coin." Unless the ANC recovers its idealism, the slogan may be adapted to read: "ANC and capitalism - two sides of the same bloody coin." The initials ANC will stand for Africa's nationalist capitalists.

There is a conundrum to consider about Zuma before signing off: It is to ponder what prompted him to describe Julius Malema, the ANC Youth League leader, as a potential president, bearing in mind that Malema is pressing for the nationalisation of the mines while Zuma has sung soothing lullabies to capitalists and investors at home and abroad.

One explanation may be that Zuma is trying to tame Malema. Another more disturbing possibility is that he is simply seeking to appease Malema.

Whatever Zuma's motives, he would do well to remember the warning to use a long spoon when supping with the devil.

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=6&art_id=vn20091117141201492C762124

3.4 ANC, the escape artist

Stephen Grootes, Daily Maverick, 17 November 2009

It’s a tricky business, governance. You’ve got to manage everything: your Alliance partners, perceptions, the markets, the media, the reality and, of course, Julius Malema and his ever-increasing cohorts. And although the ANC is still managing to successfully claim the middle ground, it is finding it increasingly hard going.

Life has not been simple for the ANC of late: there’s inflation targeting and Gill Marcus, Judge John Hlophe and the positions on the Constitutional Court, Eskom and Jacob Maroga. And of course that hoary old chestnut, the proposed nationalisation of the mines. In each case all sorts of things were said, promised, winked at, nudged towards. And in each case, in the end, the same thing happened.

Look at inflation targeting: Think back to the pre-election period earlier this year. It seemed at some points, that inflation targeting was dead and buried. Some incompetent, from way past the left of the Socialist Fringe was going to take over from that well-known avocado farmer, and basically make the money in your pocket worth less. Gwede Mantashe was talking about it all the time (although, to be fair, on some occasions he was asked pretty directly). Trevor Manuel at one point seemed to be the only voice of prudence, and even he seemed a little muted. Certainly, he was drowned out by the regular Cosatu marches outside the Bank’s headquarters.

After the ’09 poll that all changed. President Jacob Zuma’s first appointment to the Reserve Bank was an insider. He then stunned everybody by suddenly calling a Sunday afternoon press conference. There, resplendent as usual, was Gill Marcus. The markets, and everyone else in the Northern Suburbs, lapped it up. A period of uncertainty was over.

Exactly the same thing happened with Judge Hlophe. During his Judicial Service Commission hearings, the ANC said it was watching them closely, “to ensure that justice was done”. It was the worst possible thing to say. Heck, some of us who knew both the issue, and the ANC well, thought that was a strong indication he would get the top job. Then Zuma surprised us again, at another surprise press conference, with the announcement of Judge Sandile Ncobo as Chief Justice.

But it all re-surfaced after the complaint against Hlophe was “finalised”, and the JSC’s Constitutional Court hearings began. It was clear that the ANC’s Ngoako Ramathlodi was protecting him. Again and again Ramathlodi tried to stop certain questions being asked of him. Justice minister Jeff Radebe did nothing. But behind closed doors, we now know that he was busy ensuring Hlophe didn’t get a sniff of the carbon monoxide that comes from the taxis around Braamfontein.

But by far the best example was the saga called Eskom over the last few weeks. We’ve had it all: reports of boardroom battles; the President meeting with the chairman, and the chairman resigning the next day; the deafening silence from the public enterprises department; the ANC Youth League – Black Management Forum axis dancing on the Eskom chairman’s virtual grave. And just as the doom and gloom were settling in, Mantashe, NUM and Cosatu sailed in to restore sanity. Voila! Case closed.

These cases all show that within the ANC, the centre is still holding. It shows that the people who really run the economy are not called Julius. However, with the Alliance being as diverse as it is, the ANC itself has to be careful and gingerly use its voice in these situations.

In any normal country, the president would have come out during the Eskom fiasco with a simple, “I am following the situation closely, and I can tell you that investors have nothing to fear”. That’s all. The words really mean nothing, but do provide welcome, if vague, reassurance that the right thing will happen. During the Hlophe saga, Radebe could have cut off all the speculation at the knees with a simple “I’m sure the JSC will take any claims against a Constitutional Court candidate very seriously when it comes to the interviews”. The Nationalisation of Mines debate could have been put to bed with a simple Mantashe quote “Malema doesn’t speak for the party on this”.

And yet in all of these cases, nothing was said, at least not publicly. And the main reason lies within the ANC’s broad church. Keeping radical re-distributionists and Tokyo and Cyril happy at the same time required hard work and plenty of patience. Once a solution to a problem has been found, it first has to be sold to the more-and-more radical left. It’s here that Zuma’s choice of Gwede Mantashe is so crucial. It’s often forgotten that while he’s the secretary general of the ANC, he’s also the chairman of the SACP. As he once told the Business Day’s Karima Brown, “the SG of the ANC and the chairman of the SACP are in constant and total communication with each other”. This nexus of real influence is truly a fascinating one. And it happens to work, for now.

But just because it all worked in the past does not mean everything is necessarily going to end up well the next time. And the “next time” is probably just around the corner. Every time we wait for the ANC’s top brass to sell their solution to the left, real and lasting economic damage is done. The Economist wasn’t going to miss an opportunity to use the words race and power in a headline last week. Malema is well aware that Bloomberg follows the words “Julius” and “mines” very closely. And the legal fraternity really did take fright over the Hlophe affair.

Mantashe, and some of the people around him are great salesmen. Governing is using their talents to the maximum these days. But soon, the problem will come knocking that not even the Talented Mr Mantashe will be able to solve.

http://www.thedailymaverick.co.za/article/2009-11-18-ANALYSIS-ANC-the-escape-artist

3.5 The contradictions of the post-Apartheid state in South Africa

David van Wyk, In Defence of Marxism, 17 November 2009

The working masses and poor of South Africa overthrew the old hated Apartheid regime as a means of improving their living and working conditions. Instead what we have is a party in power, the ANC, which was created by the working masses but which is presently carrying out policies in the interests of the rich. This contradiction must be resolved and the only way is for the working people to take back control of the party they created.

The South African Navy is currently engaged in joint operations with the United States Navy. Meanwhile, the ANC Youth League is calling for the nationalisation of the Mines. The National Union of Metal Workers of South Africa (NUMSA) is calling for the nationalisation of the wealth of leading black “empowered” mining industrialists, Patrice Motsepe and Cyril Ramaphosa, citing the obscenity of their spectacular wealth in the sea of poverty that is South Africa. 700,000 workers (that is almost one in five workers) have lost their jobs since the beginning of the year, while the government bends over backwards to keep capitalist businesses afloat. And trade union membership is in rapid decline.

Grassroots working class ANC and SACP members lead community delivery protests and uprisings against ANC local government structures. Concerted struggle by the working class residents of Sakhile township against rubber bullets, teargas and police dogs finally paid off as the ANC NEC and the National Government were forced to dismiss the corrupt local government councillors of Standerton.

The President intervenes to have capitalist mercenaries released from jail in Equatorial Guinea, while PAC liberation fighters still rot in jail, 15 years after first democratic elections.

10,000 South Africans register for debt counselling every month, while the wealthy elite preach that the frugality of the poor in this time of recession (more likely to be a depression) is a valuable lesson for the same poor, and simultaneously complaining that a lack of demand, including for credit, is hampering the recovery of the economy. Clearly they would like to see their own pockets swelled with state assistance, and are looking forward to a time of rapid export growth and magnificent profit margins on the back of a depleted working class.

COSATU and the SACP are fighting to curb the powers of “neo-liberal” planning minister Trevor Manuel. In contrast the bourgeoisie views the Minister Ebrahim Patel with grave suspicion. COSATU bewails the fact that Pravin Gordhan, the new Minister of Finance, is doggedly sticking to Trevor Manuel’s economic fundamentals of inflation targeting and rigid interest rate controls despite the fact that the country is in a severe recession (depression). COSATU fails to understand that Gordhan’s “neo-liberal” mandate does not come from the voters but from the capitalist ruling class. On the other hand, the capitalist media and Billy Masetlha (former National Intelligence Agency spook) are warning that the SACP and COSATU are trying to take control of the ANC, i.e. Their own party!

These are all the contradictions, as various factions struggle to control the steering wheel of the ANC bus. The reason for this is the fact that the bus picks up passengers who are all intending to go in different directions and reach divergent destinations. Those who sell the bus tickets (ANC Party membership cards) are vague about the end destination, hence the confusion of the passengers. The struggle for the control of the steering wheel of a moving vehicle is a dangerous business. Unless someone actually succeeds in getting a firm grip on it, and steer it towards a clear ideological direction, the bus with its multi-class passengers will reach no destination at all, and fly off a cliff somewhere with disastrous consequences.

The working class must wrest control of the steering wheel of the bus away from the bureaucrats and petit bourgeois nationalists in the ANC so as to avoid disaster. Only by abandoning the class conciliatory policies of the current leadership of the ANC and steering the bus in a more revolutionary direction will we have a useful tool to pose a serious socialist alternative to the capitalist system – this system that is responsible for all the contradictions South African society finds itself in at the moment and which is inflicting hardship on the workers and poor of this country.

http://www.marxist.com/contradictions-post-apartheid-state-south-africa.htm

Patrick Craven (National Spokesperson)

Congress of South African Trade Unions

1-5 Leyds Cnr Biccard Streets

Braamfontein

2017

P.O.Box 1019

Johannesburg

2000

South Africa

Tel: +27 11 339-4911/24

Fax: +27 11 339-5080/6940

Mobile: +27 82 821 7456

E-Mail: pat...@cosatu.org.za

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