Why Monte Carlo simulations of project networks can mislead

[rami18]

Hello....


I think PERT++ is powerful, because read about Monte Carlo simulation
weakness:

Why Monte Carlo simulations of project networks can mislead

"Simulations rarely consider management actions, running through each
iteration in a “dumb” fashion. This gives rise to results indicating
that projects might underrun or very considerably overrun, whereas, in
reality, management actions would often bring those overruns forward
even at significant cost. Indeed, many of the actions management carry
out to catch up a late-running project cannot be modelled in a naïve
network simulation, because they involve changing the network (e.g., by
bringing an activity forward to start it earlier than would otherwise be
sensible, thereby breaking a dependency; or taking serial activities and
making them parallel). Since a Monte Carlo network simulation assumes
that the network is fixed and unchangeable (except in some simulations
by branch points that allow different paths to be taken), such actions
cannot easily be modelled."

https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/monte-carlo-simulations-project-networks-mislead-2537


So PERT++ is much easier to model this.

You can download PERT++ from:

https://sites.google.com/site/aminer68/pert-the-program-evaluation-and-review-technique-for-delphi-and-freepascal


Thank you,
Amine Moulay Ramdane.