Morten Reistad wrote:
> In article <jfolum$tjf$
3...@news.albasani.net>,
> The Natural Philosopher <t...@invalid.invalid> wrote:
>> Peter Flass wrote:
>>> On 1/24/2012 4:04 PM, John Hasler wrote:
>>>> Gene Wirchenko writes:
>>>>> This attitude costs LINUX considerably.
>
>>>> You evidently labor under the delusion that LINUX is some sort of a
>>>> business entity with costs and revenues and a mandate for growth.
>>> I think those of us who like Linux and/or hate microsoft, often the same
>>> people, would like to see Linux grow and become more mainstream. If
>>> someone has a complaint or criticism, it would be wise to at least
>>> understand what they're complaining about.
>>>
>>>> It isn't. Your complaints are not going to cause the sales department
>>>> to become concerned about the loss of customers. It is just going to
>>>> cause people to killfile you. You see, we don't actually care whether
>>>> or not you use Linux.
>>> Which is unfortunately why most statistics I've seen show Linux stuck at
>>> around 1% while Mac OS has *grown* more than that in a year.
>
> The desktop, the ossified platform for mail with umpteen attachments,
> version hell for documents, excel sheets with hidden databases and
> programs written by non-programmers, spam hell and a wasteland of
> bad powerpoint is surely dominated, and grossly mismanaged, by
> Microsoft; but they have gotten themselves a monopoly, one they
> manage expertly with strong arm muscling in the market they know so
> well.
>
> But, Instead of worrying about market share, they have to worry about
> market size. The desktop market is saturated, and there are no paths
> for growth anywhere. It is all stuck in a stifling monopoly.
>
> All they can do is milk this market for licenses for "new" stuff.
> They should be able to push ~350 million a year, including the
> upgrades.
>
> Meanwhile, _all_ the other segments are booming. There are two big
> differences; all of them are vertically integrated, and all of them
> sell appliances, not platforms. The IT worldview is dead, the embedded
> worldview is winning.
>
Indeed. When was the last time you bought a general purpose vehicle
instead of a mike, a town car and a RV?
Hardware is so friggin cheap it is not worth making it general purpose
for MOST people.
> And Linux systems arrive _everywhere_. In your TV, GPS, car, fridge,
> alarm, sex toy, and places we won't even imagine. Linux "sales"
> is skyrocketing, but they are difficult to estimte. My guess was
> that Linux overtook Windows sometime late 2009, computed backwards
> from sales figures of components.
>
I'd say earlier for all *nix systems. Basically its the de facto OS of
choice when you HAVE a choice. And now it can run on the most
lightweight of platforms..well nots not on a PIC yet..but you now what I
mean..
> Again, Microsoft sells systems in upgrade leaps, and has a ca 3
> year cycle for these sales. In a successful year they may migrate
> half a billion systems forward and collect licenses, but on average
> thwy are pretty stuck at ca 350 million licenses.
>
> I stick my head out and guess that this year we will see 1 billion
> new linuxes for the first time. Android alone will deliver 200 million++.
> The TVs, GPSes, cars, are all markets in the 100m+ bracket, and there
> are several tens of markets in the 40m+ sales, like alarms, PLSes,cameras,
> etc etc. 40 m linux systems, that is.
>
> They are all below the radar.
Yup.
>
> My sources "inside the Tornado" in Gangdong(sp?) tell that it is all
> about Linux now. 5:1. And it is all about devices.
>
sounds right.
> The "1%" is just myopia. Half of that 1% are probably the development
> of the billion new penguins.
>
> -- mrr
>
> Just in : ARM plans to sell 8B cores this year. 1 billion Linux systems
> may be a gross unerestimate.
>
Well a lot of them will be running more lightweight OSes
BUT even so...
Microsnot has won a war on the corporate desktop, to realise that the
corporate desktop wasn't ultimately where the future lay...
Now, lets remember back to the IBM PC, and IBM who won the battle for
the corporate mainframe..and then suddenly the corporate mainframe
wasn't the place to be.
I have a desktop because I do desktoppy things. Things that need a big
screen and are best done sitting down in a dedicated place.
I am in a shrinking minority.
But corporate mainframes didn't die, they just stopped being all there was.
Desktops wont die either, but, arguably most rubbish users who care not
what their appliance runs, will be on something *nixish whether it be
apple flavoured BSD or smelling strongly of penguin.
Let's face it, if you have to start again, who in their right minds
would pick Windows?
That blows Microsoft completely out of the consumer market, and makes
them increasingly dependent on the corporate desktop, but thats likely
to shrink too - users will - as they did with PCs - say 'we want our
corporate cloud services (running increasingly on virtualised servers,
and often on Linux) to reflect how we use our I-bollocks, and so
corporate apps will go server side with access 'apps' for corporate
appliances, and only the jerks in IT and the creatives with 36" screens
will need a 'desktop'..
And the IT guys are probably already on Linux of some sort....then you
have to ask yourself, how long before the heavyweight desktop apps bite
the bullet and go Linux too.
OK open office is as bad as word/excel/powerpoint, but ITS NO WORSE.
Adobe, or Quark decide that its time to support Linux as well as OSX and
'winders', and some of the better CAD/CAM programs, well then, the tide
will turn.
I see it as a fork..the noddy programs - the $50 'Windows' programs will
migrate to android, or simply be online services on a rented out basis.
as that is where the 'noddy' users are. The heavyweights - the $1000+
programs, have a choice coming: Right now its Windows, but for how long?