It's an interesting question.
In its heyday there were COBOL programmers everywhere. Most of your
colleagues were COBOL guys, you went to User Groups and met other COBOL guys
from other sites, and it was quite usual to go for drinks with guys who
lived COBOL. There were Bulletin Boards dedicated to COBOL back in the days
of 2400 bps modems (before the Internet, but after PCs became available). By
the end of the 80s though the signs were starting to show. There were fewer
jobs being advertised (although nothing to get anxious about) and people
were talking about new fangled stuff like Objects and Classes that didn't
make much sense to COBOL guys. Languages like Java were dismissed as rubbish
because they weren't self-documenting and English-like... Throughout the 90s
COBOL continued to lose ground receiving some CPR for the Y2K problem, but
declining again after that.
So, what DID happen to all the COBOL guys?
Hard to say. I think some of them saw the writing on the wall and moved to
other things. Quite a few were "kicked upstairs" and became Team Leaders,
Business Analysts, and line managers, and some simply decided that they were
born to program and so they expanded their skill sets and avoided
redundancy.
As was noted in some of the comments on the OP's link, there are very few
COBOL programmers around who are under 30. (There was ONE guy who responded
who was 27 but he only knows COBOL, so his experience is limited.)
The ones who frequent this forum are largely the die-hards who are moving to
retirement (or have already) and they just love to think the Glory Days are
still with us. I see no harm in that and participate in it myself
occasionally. After 40 odd years I have as much "Glory" as anybody else :-)
There was a time here when we dealt with problems in COBOL and discussed
them, supporting Newbies and encouraging them to do their own homework...
:-) That hasn't happened for a very long time and the kind of questions we
get now are much more specialised and usually involve other things besides
COBOL. The decline in questions (and Newbies) is just one indication of the
decline in COBOL. If the language declines, then the number of people using
it will decline and that may account for the fact that COBOL guys are thin
on the ground.
The determined promotion of COBOL vendors helped to prolong the life of it
but even they are starting to realise it isn't going anywhere. IBM are not
investing large sums in COBOL to provide modern facilities for it, Micro
Focus have nailed their colours to the mast of Visual COBOL, which, although
it is an excellent product, I believe is doomed in the long run (say 3 or 4
years), and Fujitsu have already divested themselves of their COBOL product,
including their excellent NetCOBOL for .NET, which is doomed to share the
fate of MF's Visual COBOL.
(It really is sad to see two such excellent products that simply missed the
boat. As people using these products become more familiar and comfortable
with Objects and Layers, and start to realise that many of the precepts that
apply traditionally to COBOL are not relevant to Object COBOL or .Net or
Mono; when the penny drops that OBJECT code (encapsulated functionality) is
infinitely more important than SOURCE code, then they will start to wonder
why they are writing and maintaining thousands of lines of COBOL when they
could be using other languages that don't require that, and are provided
free. Pretty soon they move away from COBOL. (Whether you agree with this
reasoning or not, the fact is that both Micro Focus and IBM are looking to
diversify to other products than COBOL and Fujitsu has already left the
field.)
It is the stupid and misleading propaganda spread about by vested interest
companies like Gartner that "80% of the world's computing runs on COBOL"
that then causes people to ask where the programmers are. It's a very fair
question.
Another major factor that comes into this is that today's programmers are
generally better trained than we were and they have a grounding in Computer
Science (Principles and Practice of Programming, across paradigms, which we
never really had handed to us) These guys are capable of picking up COBOL
legacy and dealing with it until it can be replaced. They don't consider
themselves "COBOL Programmers" but they do consider themselves "computer
programmers" who are perfectly capable of dealing with most things. Their
Toolboxes are much fuller than ours were because the world they live in is
no place for "one trick ponies".
(I am currently working with one such person (there were two, but one of
them "completed" and got what she came for) who is doing Computer Science at
one of the leading NZ universities, and not being formally taught COBOL as
part of it. They both wanted to get some COBOL knowledge purely on their own
behalf, to improve their skill if they should be asked to deal with Legacy,
and one of them actually plans to make a living in the same niche market
where PRIMA is working: Moving legacy COBOL on and salvaging what it makes
sense to salvage.)
There are some time warp installations (particularly in the USA,
apparently...) where they still maintain fossilized COBOL core systems and
use the Waterfall to develop, just as they did in the last century. And
there are still some "one trick pony" COBOL codgers who ply their trade just
as they have always done. There's nothing wrong with that, but it is not a
place for young people who are trying to make a career. And it DOESN'T mean
that COBOL is alive and well and will be around for the next 50 years...
There are few people today who can claim to be a "COBOL programmer" and
fewer yet who would want to. (Putting COBOL experience on a CV these days
can actually lower your chances.) But for those of us, the increasngly
diminishing band who were there when commerce started using computers on a
grand scale, who learned the stuff by the seat of our pants and were driven
by our own passion for programming and curiosity, and then saw what we
learned become largely obsolete as the pace of technology increased
dramatically, we have nothing to be ashamed of.
I'm proud to be a "COBOL programmer" even though I have acquired many other
skills. I'll always have an affinity for COBOL; the simple beauty of it
reminds me of a simpler time when computing wasn't "Awesome", it was just
bread and butter...
Now, the notebook on my lap has many times the power of the machines I wrote
(non-Object) COBOL on. I string together components like Lego blocks and
build structures of grace and beauty with user interfaces that could only be
dreamed of in COBOL. I have learned new programming tricks, facilities and
techniques (functional Lambdas, LINQ, Reflection, Delegation, Regular
Expressions, to name just some...) that were never a part of my COBOL
world. My productivity has soared; my maintenance time has dived and I am a
happy developer... but I still remember when we did it line by line. :-)
"For the sin that ye do
by two and by two
ye must pay for
one by one."
(Kipling, "Tomlinson".)
Pete.