Help with Human Reliability Literature Search
Eric M Hermanson
Department at MIT. We are studying human reliability as it applies to
operating nuclear power plants. I have written a simulation of a fairly
complex nuclear power plant with the NEXTSTEP operating system. In the
simulation, the user is able to control many variables, including the
neutron population (power), coolant flow pumps, coolant valves, and steam
generators. We introduce perturbations into the reactor and it is up to
the operator (the user) to fix these perturbations. We hypothesize that
as the information content presented to the user, i.e. the number and kind
of perturbations introduced into the reactor, is increased, the success rate
of the individual in terms of fixing the problem is decreased after a certain
threshold is met. For instance, if the information content is low, the user
has a very good chance of fixing the problem. But as the information the user
has to deal with to make a decision increases, there is a certain threshold
beyond which the user's success deteriorates rapidly. If we hypothesize that
the information (I) = ln(N), where N is the number of perturbations
introduced, then the success vs. information content graph should look like
this:
Success |
| ---------
/\ | \
| | \
| | \
-------------------------
Information content -->
Knowing this, is anyone familiar with scientific literature that may have
some similarities with our study? It doesn't necessarily have to involve
nuclear power plants as our results should be applicable to almost any
situation where human reliability (human factors) is involved.
If anyone has any information, or if anyone is conducting research with
similar hypothesis, please let me know!
Thank You,
Eric Hermanson
Rodney Fuller
In article <2s0ab3$a...@senator-bedfellow.MIT.EDU>, zmon...@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Eric M Hermanson) writes:
|> But as the information the user
|> has to deal with to make a decision increases, there is a certain threshold
|> beyond which the user's success deteriorates rapidly. If we hypothesize that
|> the information (I) = ln(N), where N is the number of perturbations
|> introduced, then the success vs. information content graph should look like
|> this:
|>
|> Success |
|> | ---------
|> /\ | \
|> | | \
|> | | \
|> -------------------------
|> Information content -->
|>
|>
|> Knowing this, is anyone familiar with scientific literature that may have
|> some similarities with our study? It doesn't necessarily have to involve
|> nuclear power plants as our results should be applicable to almost any
|> situation where human reliability (human factors) is involved.
Two quick answers:
The most basic research that looks at the complexity of information
and how it interacts with usability is George Miller's classic "the magic
number 7 +/- 2" paper in 1957 (EVERY book on cognitive psychology
references this paper, but EVERYONE misses the last 65% of the paper
on how complexity influences decision performance.)
And I got the same problem building a CSCW system for a health care
system here and I just got a paper published by AAAI press (it will
be availible in paper and electronicially later this summer--email
me for a copy if you want) that looks at this problem from several
perspectives--and offers a possible solution based on the use of
information theory and adaptive models of behavior. BUT - it only
refers to groups, and not to individuals. The math is much too hard
to support individuals and complexity, but groups are a much easier
problem (as least for some forms of coordination).
Rodney Fuller
ful...@cgsvax.claremont.edu -or- ful...@usc.edu
ful...@cgsvax.claremont.edu
> In article <2s0nlk$8...@bacalao.usc.edu> ful...@bacalao.usc.edu (Rodney Fuller) writes:
>
> [snip]
>
>>The most basic research that looks at the complexity of information
>>and how it interacts with usability is George Miller's classic "the magic
>
> Where can one get a copy of this paper?
Try:
Miller, G.A. (1956). The magic number seven, plus or minus two;
some limits on our capacity for processing information. Psychological
Review, vol 63, p. 81 - 97.
and _PLEASE_ read more than the title and the abstract. in the past two
years I have heard over 34 references to this paper that imply that humans
have a limited information processing capacity of 7+/-2 "chunks" and only
_THREE_ of these people qualified this information as relating to verbal
recall of nonsense words from short-term memory. But then again, none
of these 33 refrences mentioned the second half of Millers paper on complexity
and its implications to information management and decision making.
Rodney Fuller
Today at: ful...@cgsvax.claremont.edu, but can also be found at
ful...@usc.edu.
Bill Hefley
In article <shea.502...@marcam.com>, sh...@marcam.com (Tim Shea) writes:
|> In article <2s0nlk$8...@bacalao.usc.edu> ful...@bacalao.usc.edu (Rodney Fuller) writes:
|>
|> [snip]
|>
|> >and how it interacts with usability is George Miller's classic "the magic
|> >number 7 +/- 2" paper in 1957 (EVERY book on cognitive psychology
|> >references this paper, but EVERYONE misses the last 65% of the paper
|> >on how complexity influences decision performance.)
|>
It was published in 1956 in Psychological Review Vol. 63, pages 81-97, the
full title is "The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our
capacity for processing information" It may also have been reprinted in some
collections - my copy of the Baecker and Buxton collection is at home right
now, but it might be in there.
bill
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bill Hefley, Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA 15213 U.S.A.
Office: (412) 268-7793 , Fax: (412) 268-5758, internet: w...@sei.cmu.edu
Bill Hefley
In article <shea.502...@marcam.com>, sh...@marcam.com (Tim Shea) writes:
|> In article <2s0nlk$8...@bacalao.usc.edu> ful...@bacalao.usc.edu (Rodney Fuller) writes:
|>
|> [snip]
|>
|> >and how it interacts with usability is George Miller's classic "the magic
|> >number 7 +/- 2" paper in 1957 (EVERY book on cognitive psychology
|> >references this paper, but EVERYONE misses the last 65% of the paper
|> >on how complexity influences decision performance.)
|>
Tim Shea
[snip]
>The most basic research that looks at the complexity of information
>and how it interacts with usability is George Miller's classic "the magic
>number 7 +/- 2" paper in 1957 (EVERY book on cognitive psychology
>references this paper, but EVERYONE misses the last 65% of the paper
>on how complexity influences decision performance.)
Where can one get a copy of this paper?
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Tim Shea Internet: sh...@marcam.com Phone (USA): (617) 965-0220
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Steve Portigal
> full title is "The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our
> capacity for processing information" It may also have been reprinted in some
> collections - my copy of the Baecker and Buxton collection is at home right
> now, but it might be in there.
It's not in the 1987 book they did.
--
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Steve Portigal ** User-Interface Dude ** looking for work, too!!! |
| View my M.Sc. thesis online at: http://130.43.3.18/ (World Wide Web) |
| It ain't a crime to be good to yourself |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Rodney Fuller
In article <2s3cbs$j...@nermal.cs.uoguelph.ca>, spor...@uoguelph.ca (Steve Portigal) writes:
|> > It was published in 1956 in Psychological Review Vol. 63, pages 81-97, the
|> > full title is "The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our
|> > capacity for processing information" It may also have been reprinted in some
|> > collections - my copy of the Baecker and Buxton collection is at home right
|> > now, but it might be in there.
|>
|> It's not in the 1987 book they did.
The Miller paper is also presented/reviewed in D.A. Norman's book
Memory and Attention, 2nd edition (1976 +/-1) where Don Norman
presentes the main text and explains the transitions and summarizes
the parts he passed over as editor. The summary is quite good and
only 6 or 7 pages.
And other net people have also emailed me regarding this:
IN%"Richard...@rand.org" "Richard Kaplan" writes:
>The current issus of Psych. Rev. has a reprint of the Miller article
>along with two articles updating the work.
And Gary Perlman <per...@cis.ohio-state.edu> writes:
Ahem. That's _magicAL_, I think...
Also, I am not sure if reading the abstract would help many people.
%A George A. Miller
%D 1956
%T The Magical Number Seven Plus or Minus Two:
Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information
%J Psychological Review
%V 63
%P 81-97
%X My problem is that I have been persecuted by an integer. For seven
years this number has followed me around, has intruded in my most
private data, and has assaulted me from the pages of our most public
journals. This number assumes a variety of disguises, being sometimes a
little larger and sometimes a little smaller than usual, but never
changing so much as to be unrecognizable. The persistence with which
this number plagues me is far more than a random accident. There is, to
quote a famous senator, a design behind it, some pattern governing its
appearances. Either there really is something unusual about the number
or else I am suffering from delusions of persecution. I shall begin my
case history by telling you about some experiments that tested how
accurately people can assign numbers to the magnitudes of various
aspects of a stimulus. In the traditional language of psychology these
would be called experiments in absolute judgment. Historical accident,
however, has decreed that they should have another name. We now call
them experiments on the capacity of people to transmit information.
Since these experiments would not have been done without the appearance
of information theory on the psychological scene, and since the results
are analyzed in terms of the concepts of information theory, I shall
have to preface my discussion with a few remarks about this theory.
Mike Bell
>
> In article <2s3cbs$j...@nermal.cs.uoguelph.ca>, spor...@uoguelph.ca (Steve Portigal) writes:
> |> > It was published in 1956 in Psychological Review Vol. 63, pages 81-97, the
> |> > full title is "The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our
> |> > capacity for processing information" It may also have been reprinted in some
> |> > collections - my copy of the Baecker and Buxton collection is at home right
> |> > now, but it might be in there.
> |>
> |> It's not in the 1987 book they did.
>
> The Miller paper is also presented/reviewed in D.A. Norman's book
> Memory and Attention, 2nd edition (1976 +/-1) where Don Norman
> presentes the main text and explains the transitions and summarizes
> the parts he passed over as editor. The summary is quite good and
> only 6 or 7 pages.
It's also in `Visual Programming Environments: Applications and Issues'
(Ed) E. Glinert 1990 IEEE Press
I've also seen it in a couple of HCI books!
Mike
--
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Michael A. Bell Janet: mb...@uk.ac.liverpool.compsci
Department of Computer Science,
University of Liverpool, Internet: mb...@compsci.liverpool.ac.uk
PO Box 147
Liverpool L69 3BX Telephone: +51 794 3692
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