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Message from discussion The C-Prize
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jim_bow...@hotmail.com  
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 More options Jun 18 2005, 3:15 pm
Newsgroups: comp.compression
From: jim_bow...@hotmail.com
Date: 18 Jun 2005 12:15:47 -0700
Local: Sat, Jun 18 2005 3:15 pm
Subject: Re: The C-Prize

Matt Mahoney writes:
> He proves... the most likely outcome for
> any experiment is the one with the simplest explanation, where
> "simplest" means the smallest program that could model what you
> currently know about the universe.

Wow.

If what you say is easily verifiable by consulting mathematicians then
you've just dramatically strengthened the case for the C-Prize.  A
philanthropist can have a trusted consultant verify Hutter's proof and
the C-Prize's salience to it.  The only remaining question is whether
the C-Prize is properly administered -- something the philanthropist
can verify with a combination of business and engineering consultants.

I had run across Hutter's AIXI paper before, when searching for
Solomonoff's algorithmic probability theory, but I read just the
abstract and didn't have the background for it so I sent it off to a
friend who is a doctoral candidate in statistical mechanics to review.
Being a doctoral candidate he doesn't have much time left to review
papers ourside his area so I never got the low-down you just gave.
Thanks for the clear synopsis.

A proof like this should have been available to researchers from the
1960s work on minimum length description (AP, KC, etc.) and decision
theory but apparently no one bothered to put 2 and 2 together for what
-- 40 years now?

This is going to be a major question for science historians:

Why did the AI community fail to formalize this proof for so long?

Given Moore's Law originated at about that time, 40 years ago, there's
a good argument that this ranks as one of the greatest losses of
potential to befall humanity.


 
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