Future AI Applications
Jean
1. Driverless Cars ? Are they imminent ?
Seems like they are not:(
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.physics/browse_thread/thread/cb2b2d58447dc907/c2aac284d37f3267?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=utf-8&q=alertjean+driverless+cars#c2aac284d37f3267
Which of the following applications in entertainment will come up
first ? or Will they ever ? What is the research happening in each of
these areas ?
2.Song/Music generation - An application which generates Song/Music
according to a set of input characteristics (Like Genre,Voice type).
Not sure whether it is ever possible for this generated music to pass
its own version of Turing test - that it will not sound like something
generated by a machine.
3.Automatic story generator. Based on genre/style this application
should be able to spit out a novel/story that makes sense to us. Has
this been tried ?
4.Extreme ! Automatic movie generator. On similar lines will there be
ever an intelligent movie maker application which can generate a
movie .
Will I be able to witness any of these in my lifetime ? Are there any
applications remotely capable of doing these things ?
Comments !
Curt Welch
> (In increasing complexity)
>
> 1. Driverless Cars ? Are they imminent ?
For normal civilian use? nope. It's too dangerous and the road
environment is too complex. There are too many complex special cases that
would result in the humans being hurt if the car failed to correctly
understand the situation (like a drunk human wandering out onto a freeway.
We won't see this until the machines become smarter than humans - at which
time, it will be too dangers to let a human drive.
> Seems like they are not:(
> http://groups.google.com/group/sci.physics/browse_thread/thread/cb2b2d584
> 47dc907/c2aac284d37f3267?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=utf-8&q=alertjean+driverless+c
> ars#c2aac284d37f3267
>
> Which of the following applications in entertainment will come up
> first ? or Will they ever ? What is the research happening in each of
> these areas ?
>
> 2.Song/Music generation - An application which generates Song/Music
> according to a set of input characteristics (Like Genre,Voice type).
> Not sure whether it is ever possible for this generated music to pass
> its own version of Turing test - that it will not sound like something
> generated by a machine.
>
> 3.Automatic story generator. Based on genre/style this application
> should be able to spit out a novel/story that makes sense to us. Has
> this been tried ?
>
> 4.Extreme ! Automatic movie generator. On similar lines will there be
> ever an intelligent movie maker application which can generate a
> movie .
Well, music generation and painting for example have already be done.
Though the results are interesting, they are no where near close to what
humans can do. Art is a lot more than just intelligence. It's
understanding what a human cares about. That is always a lot easier if you
are a human with a human body living in a human world. We could create AI
robots as smart as humans, but they art they would produce would likely
appeal more to another robot than to a human.a For the robot be to be a
good enough artist to understand what a human will like, better than a
human could, would requite a very smart robot.
> Will I be able to witness any of these in my lifetime ?
Depends how old you are. :)
> Are there any
> applications remotely capable of doing these things ?
>
> Comments !
You have mentioned a few of the application that just won't happen until we
produce machines as smart as, or smarter than, humans. It will happen in
time, and there is plenty of people welling to speculate when that will be,
but of course, no one really knows.
Nothing currently working, is anywhere near close to full human
intelligence. Many of us believe full human machine intelligence is not
all that far away (a few decades). But people have been saying "a few
decades" for 60 years now and we don't really feel much closer today, then
we were 60 years ago. Lots of great work has been done, but if you look at
the size of the gap between what we have, and what a human can do, the gap
seems as wide today, as it was 60 years ago. We have lots more "smart" AI
applications today than we did 60 years ago, but the applications are all
still idiots compared to humans.
Producing full human general intelligence just happens to be a particularly
hard problem to solve. Not so much that it's a huge problem that will just
take lots of work, but more that it's just very hard to see how to solve
it. We really haven't been making progress at all. That is, all the work
in AI to date hasn't been a case of slowly building the solution to AI.
It's really been a search for the answer. All that has really happened, is
that we have looked in 1000 wrong places so far. How many more wrong
places will we have to look before we find the right one? No one really
knows.
But I would say we are getting very close, and that by 2050, there's a very
high probability that the world will be filled with machines that have
general intelligence much higher than humans. A lot of people are placing
it close to 2025. I have a bet with a friend it will be by 2015.
If you expect to live to 2050, I think there's a good chance you will see
all the things you asked about done by machines before you die. It's not
likely I'll live to 2050 (but possible).
--
Curt Welch http://CurtWelch.Com/
cu...@kcwc.com http://NewsReader.Com/
rick++
> 4.Extreme ! Automatic movie generator. On similar lines will there be
> ever an intelligent movie maker application which can generate a
> movie .
Some video games do a subset of this already.
It provides unpredictable events and charactorers
for live human opponents.
zzbu...@netscape.net
> (In increasing complexity)
>
> 1. Driverless Cars ? Are they imminent ?
Well, if you mean for highway use no. Since the only thing
most idiot drivers even know about cars to start with is Wal-Mart.
So, that's why the people who understand cars are working
on Rapid Prototying and Post GM economics, rather than cars
anything
anymore.
>
> Seems like they are not:(http://groups.google.com/group/sci.physics/browse_thread/thread/cb2b2...
>
> Which of the following applications in entertainment will come up
> first ? or Will they ever ? What is the research happening in each of
> these areas ?
>
> 2.Song/Music generation - An application which generates Song/Music
> according to a set of input characteristics (Like Genre,Voice type).
> Not sure whether it is ever possible for this generated music to pass
> its own version of Turing test - that it will not sound like something
> generated by a machine.
Well it definitely have machine tones, since musicians only
clue about science at all outside of middle c is cocaine.