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- Andy Badera
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Pat,
I agree with you, Greg earlier and Chris, but I think there are few more things needed to be looked at IaaS in general and Cloud in particular.
Your #3, “You have
customers who are asking about and can benefit from IaaS”.
Now this is a very important point. If we look at present day markets, who are these customers and who has them?....
The guys who have these customers (SME and Enterprise) wrapped up atleast in the last 30+ years are the enterprise computing companies like IBM, HP, Sun/Oracle, Microsoft, SAP etc etc.
Amongst these traditional computing players, only Microsoft has the mega data center operational experience mainly because of its msn.com in addition to their own corporate data centers which all other players also have. For instance, HP is consolidating something like 30 to 40 of its data centers from across the world into 6 super data centers.
But interestingly, Amazon to some extent from size of the data center point of view and Google and Yahoo have the mega data center operational experience but they do not have the customers. So the market scenario is quite interesting. Those players who have the customers do not have the mega scale data center operational experience and those players who have the experience do not have the customers. Infact an interesting thing that we have seen recently is the partnerships between the traditional players and data center players – HP and Verizon. I think IBM signed some partnership agreement with Amazon.
In addition, I do not think enterprise companies are going to move to Public Clouds at all for quite some time. There are too many strong players and forces that will make sure that the path to Public Clouds is through Private Clouds, Hybrid Clouds and then to Public Clouds. There is a lot to loose for the traditional computing companies in the PPU revenue model. Do you think HP, IBM, Sun and other HW players would like a untested, unpredictable PPU model when they are today able to make decent if not substantial profits through sale model. Oracle and MS will do everything possible to delay if not totally squash the PPU model. Oracle is making 23% profits on its software, MS is not any less. In addition, they also make a LOT of money through services, especially IBM and HP will get there in 3 to 5 years. On top of it, the CIOs of enterprises are not ready for Public Clouds due to their real or unreal concerns about Security, Compliance, Privacy etc etc issues.
So coming back to your point that you have customers who are asking for IaaS, In the short run it will be SMEs who will be asking for IaaS in the Public Clouds and Enterprises in the Private Cloud space without PPU. Ofcourse there are also startups and ISVs who will be interested in IaaS in the Public Clouds.
“You have expertise in designing scalable self-healing systems. You understand how to design "so that scale is your friend, not your enemy" to paraphrase Werner Vogels (Amazon CTO).”
This is also a very interesting point. About scalable systems, you can design scalable systems depending on what kind of applications you are running on them. Folks talk about and always point to Google as an example of super scalable COTS HW systems in use for their map reduce. I think Google is just one and a very specific example. The SEARCH application that Google runs is inherently parallelizable and scalable to large proportions due to the non-dependency of data. Whereas data center applications are not search applications. Infact very few applications in real life are parallelization friendly. So the scalability needed when data centers of enterprises move to clouds is a different kind of scalability. It is lot more easy to group unrelated workloads onto multiple cores/multiple CPUs and multiple servers and utilize them to the fullest extent. This is infact lot more suitable for multi-tenancy which is gong to be a central aspect of clouds not only from scalability perspective but also economies of scale perspective. It is not any different than how server farms have been utilized in the web/internet scale operations for say e-commerce workloads.
About self-healing, although companies have been talking about self-healing for a long time, the autonomic computing technology has not progresses to very far enough to facilitate a fully automated and managed data center let alone a cloud. I think there are plenty of opportunities of entrepreneurs here but today’s technology is woefully inadequate to meet the self-healing requirements of a cloud. We have not even achieved a lights-out data center yet, autonomic data center is few years off and so is an autonomic cloud.
Many hosting companies are not really in a position to be Cloud Service Providers. They lack the expertise and service personnel to service the Enterprise Companies and their solutions. A hosting provider today cannot host say Fidelity or Coca Cola and provide the SOLUTION EXPERTISE that IBM, HP, Sun/Oracle and MS provide today. They are equipped to HOST the HW and SW, not the SOLUTIONS and SERVICES. Infact, one thing they might want to do is hire all the service and technology experts that these big wigs are laying off foolishly and turn the tables on them.
Anyway, interesting discussion thought of chiming in.
Rao