-- Jim Starkey President, NimbusDB, Inc. 978 526-1376
For sometime, I've been challenging the claims of economy of scale. Most consider this a secondary issue, barely worth considering. Let me explain why economy of scale is critical to the survival of the Dumb Cloud (e.g. EC2). Here is the argument:
- If cloud providers enjoy economy of scale, they can set pricing that covers their costs, gives them a profit, and is still competitive with small to medium scale data centers.
- The nature of business that promises on-demand resource to all comers must keep a reserve capacity fallow. It has no alternative but to roll the capital cost of idle resources into their pricing. In other words, a cloud provider promising capacity on demand must charge existing customers resources installed but not billable to not-yet-customers.
- It's worse than that, because the fixed cost of a new data center must be borne initially by few servers than target capacity. Real estate, power, and cooling are upfront costs that have to be paid. Servers can be installed incrementally; power handling, cooling, and square footage must be installed in large hunks.
- An expanding cloud provider is likely to have a cost per server greater than a smaller facility running at a significant fraction of capacity.
- A significant economy scale allows a cloud provide to absorb there costs and remain competitive.
- If there isn't a major economy of scale, the cloud provider must charge a large premium.
General rule of thumb in the technology world: If you need an MBA to
tell you that you're going to make money, you're gone to loose money.
This industry is chock full of expenses surprises. If margins are so
thin that you need Black-Sholes to find them, you either have a problem
or will have one soon.
The cost argument are bogus as hell, as I think everyone recognizes. To
make money, a company has to have strong margins that come from value
added and differentiation, not electricity rate arbitrage.
Good point, but you have it backwards. EC2 is much more expensive than
owning and operating a server, even if the server is amortized over a
single year. Or less.
I was wondering if there is a list of top 10 impediments to Cloud adoption.
I would think based on my research, DATA security, privacy and trust seem to
be the top concerns before anyone especially CXOs of an enterprise or even
SMB folks would let their data centers be migrated to Clouds Service
Providers even if the CSPs are big wigs like HP and IBM, who might be in a
position to sign highly reliable SLAs and throw their reputation on line for
the business.
I was wondering if Cloud adoption would happen in phases in such a way that
the DATA might still remain with the company that outsources its IT
PROCESSING. So basically, the web tier, application/middle tiers would be
the first candidates to be migrated and still keeping the DATAbases or just
the STORAGE on which databases reside, at the premises in the early phases
and the data tier in later phases. This way the company would still retain
atleast TRUST, SECURITY and PRIVACY to a large extent within their CONTROL.
If this is one scenario, then would there be enough bandwidth on the WANs to
accommodate the backend traffic on the WANs or the web/internet, as this
traffic today is generally within the data center SAN/NAS infrastructure.
This brings up another question, what about the non-database content,
websites and other content, which might reside today in the tier 1 and/or
tier 2, where will it reside in this scenario?..
Is this content as high in priority in terms of security, privacy and trust
as the database content?...probably depends on the customer?.
Thanks
Rao
But if you want 10, here you go:
0) It's all hype, so it'll cost way more next year.
1) My data could disappear and I have no recourse
2) My data is hacked and competitors will get my secrets
3) My data is locked up and I want to leave but can't
4) My site popularity explodes and I can't afford the scalability
5) Cloud sales/marketing is confusing, because no one knows what they are talking about
6) It's too good to be true, so it probably is
7) Downtime is real, what do I do when I can't get to my stuff
8) Who do I yell at when something breaks
9) Consumers' lack of control of the underlying bits and pieces
10) You're all stupid, this is just a grid, been around for decades!
11) What happens if the network fails
12) I want to run it behind my firewall
13) There are no standards, so obviously you're making this up as you go!
14) You're a startup, what if you go out of business!?
15) If 1 person can do the work of 10, I'll have to fire people, so I'll have less power.
16) How do I wade through the vaporware?
17) I can't find anyone to pay to make this work for me
18) I don't want to learn something new
19) It can't do this one tiny thing, so forget all the benefits too!
20) The United States government is going to snoop through my belongings
Ok, that's more than 10, but sums it up pretty well. Some are a bit repetitive I know. The question is, how to respond to these complaints and get your stuff sold. Here's what I say:
0) It's all hype, so it'll cost way more next year.
We've been eating our own dogfood for years. It's faster, cheaper, and higher quality. Amazon has been reducing prices over time. Some costs may increase, but if this is the case, you got 1 year for cheap! :D Look to the smugmug case study for an example of how much money can be saved in the cloud.
1) My data could disappear and I have no recourse
Most clouds are backed up to multiple locations on a daily basis. You can implement programmatic backups more often than that if your application needs it. Don't pay for a service that won't let you get your data out quickly and easily.
2) My data is hacked and competitors will get my secrets
Any computer connected to the internet is hackable. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying -- run from them. All I can say is that if your data can be hacked, our data can be hacked. We take the the utmost of care to prevent it, but it's impossible to prevent it. Lock it down as tightly as possible. Test regularly. Take all known precautions. Wade into the cloud. Pay a hacker squad to find bugs and entry points. I believe not all data belongs in the cloud. I work for a Platform as a Service provider and we keep some of our data behind our firewall. Anyone who tells you moving to the cloud is an all or nothing should be ignored entirely.
3) My data is locked up and I want to leave but can't
Anything that abstracts a lower level process into a higher level process affords the end user a level of convenience that may not be had somewhere else. This fear is unavoidable, but no different than data behind a PHP app or a .NET app or a Java App. If those languages disappear you have to rewrite them. This has been happening for decades and will continue to happen. Try to pick a standards based provider so the transition is as easy as possible. Don't pay vendors with intentional lock-in. Let them go extinct.
4) My site popularity explodes and I can't afford the scalability
Monitor your site. Put traffic governors in place to avoid this. Don't scale automatically. Really though, this is a good problem if your site makes money for you. If your website isn't making you more money than it costs to run, chalk it up as advertising and bill it to another department or change your business model.
5) Cloud sales/marketing is confusing, because no one knows what they are talking about
The cloud is the cutting edge of the bleeding edge. The questions being answered now have never been asked before. Sales and Marketing are generally the least technical among the teams. Journalists are confused. Everyone is confused. Lots of companies are doing a real disservice to other companies by confusing potential customers with jargon and nonsense. It hurts us all. If the company spends more money on marketing than technology, look somewhere else.
6) It's too good to be true, so it probably is
It's true. It's a paradigm shift. It really is cheaper and better and faster. There are lots of case studies out there, but no one is talking because no one wants their competitors to know how to do it cheaper.
7) Downtime is real, what do I do when I can't get to my stuff
Reflect on all the productivity gains when it wasn't down. Pause for a second. Most likely, service will resume. I know it's quite frustrating when you can't get to your applications, but try to remember that you're saving tons of money and able to expand the horizon of possibility tremendously because you are using the cloud at all.
8) Who do I yell at when something breaks
Who do you yell at when your computer crashes or your hard drive crashes? The first step is to figure out what broke. Then, as politely as possible, call someone at the location of failure and let them know. Odds are, they're already on it. If they eat their own dog food, their systems are down too and you can bet they are working diligently to rectify the situation. It's almost certain that you are not the only one impacted by a cloud failure at any level.
9) Consumers' lack of control of the underlying bits and pieces
This is true, but imagine if you were still feeding punch cards into big honking machines clanking away. The ability to forget about the underlying bits is a blessing, not a curse. This is what you want, it's called progress.
10) You're all stupid, this is just a grid, been around for decades!
Well, sort of. Grid computing is a bit different than the cloud. What we are doing here is giving you access to grid style scalable computing in exchange for a credit card number. I'm not sure you could get access to a grid for that, but yeah, it's similar to a grid.
11) What happens if the network fails
Some platform providers allow you to work offline and synchronize when the app comes back. This is really the same as #7 above. Sometimes the cloud is unavailable. Some clouds and platforms can be run behind your firewall so network risk is reduced, but even within your corporate network, sometimes things go wrong. I was raised in rural America and our power went out all the time. Sometimes for hours and days. It's amazing how dependent we have become on things like this and how violent we can feel when we access stuff. Anger management courses may help.
12) I want to run it behind my firewall
Okay, this is possible with a variety of cloud infrastructure and software. Lots of people want you to believe it's not a cloud if you aren't paying someone else to manage it, but I don't really care too much about semantics. What I care about is this: It's cheaper, it's better, and it's higher quality. That's true of the paradigm, regardless of location and who manages it. If you have lots of idle servers, cloudify them -- please.
13) There are no standards, so obviously you're making this up as you go!
Innovation happens before the standards. Early adopters do endure a bit of risk here. What we all hope through this is that standards evolve and it's easy to adapt our existing systems to them. Standards slow us down in the beginning, but we'll work it out eventually. This has been the trend in computing for many decades now and I don't believe it will change. Try to pick a platform that strives to adhere to existing standards. There are some.
14) You're a startup, what if you go out of business!?
This is a risk with any new technology. Coghead went out of business for example -- shame on SAP! SAP's greed has tarnished all of our reputations. Look to companies with vision. Look for conflicts of interest. Look for startups who eat their own dog food.
15) If 1 person can do the work of 10, I'll have to fire people and I don't want to do that.
I'd argue that you could keep those people and make them more productive with the cloud. Redirect their talents and train them to use the new technology. The goal of automation is to make lives better. The best and the brightest among your organization will adapt and grow and be better employees because of the cloud. Your organization will be leaner and meaner. This is what you want. Give your employees the chance to step up and accept this new vision. Take a portion of the money you save and spend it on training and betterment of your organization. There is still a lot of work to do, even after all the automation.
16) How do I wade through the vaporware?
This is a personal pain point of mine. There are a lot of vendors out there saying they can do things they just can't do. Look for free trials, test out the service, call someone and talk to them. Get a webinar. Ask for references. If you can't get someone on the phone to talk to, be wary. Some signs to look for in vaporware are a lack of demos on the website. The requirement to enter contact information before seeing anything. This is a text book market for lemons and it's difficult for consumers. Lots of organizations are capitalizing on potential customers' confusion. If you feel pressured or hard sold, go somewhere else, take your time. Look for reviews and talk to people about their experiences. Same as any new market really.
17) I can't find anyone to pay to make this work for me
Yes, this is a hardship right now. There is a dearth of talent, but the talent pool is growing. Be patient. Look under rocks. Spend a bit of money on training. There's a high likelihood that it'll pay for itself in the short run and long run.
18) I don't want to learn something new
The cloud probably isn't for you. This is the nature of technology and evolution. It's the curse of progress. If you don't want to learn something new, someone will eat your lunch. Otherwise, you're going to have to pay someone to learn it for you. In most cases, the new thing you'll have to learn is probably easier than what you had to learn the last time to get where you are now, but yeah, it's a hamster wheel. That's why IT people cost so much money. It's hard to keep learning constantly.
19) It can't do this one tiny thing, so forget it!
I encourage customers to evaluate systems based on what they can do, rather than what they can't do. A hammer can't drive a screw very well, but it can drive a nail. Look for the nails. Sometimes the cloud is not the right tool for the job. A VPS or a managed server may be better for you. Sometimes the one tiny thing is a deal breaker. Sometimes it's an excuse to say no. Is there
a work around? Is it actually better that you can't do that thing? It very well could be.
20) The United States government is going to snoop through my belongings
This is a real concern for many. Laws and regulations differ by country. Borders are one of my personal pet peeves. I think they are pretty ridiculous on many levels, but alas, we must endure irrational decisions from politicians guided more by fear and greed than reality. My suggestion would be to look for a cloud or platform provider who can host your data in another country that has laws more suitable to your needs. Unfortunately, the laws in the United States are negatively impacting the adoption of innovative products in the cloud space.
- Randall
CTO, Qrimp.com
http://www.qrimp.com
-----Original Message-----
From: "Rao Dronamraju" <rao.dro...@sbcglobal.net>
Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2009 4:09pm
To: cloud-c...@googlegroups.com
Hi Randall,
Â
Interesting, entrusting nuclear warheads to Amazon EC2 :)...
Â
I think part of the security like said in an earlier post is how the cloud is configured. Â Is the data stored within a protected environment but made available through cloud applications?
Â
I 100% agree that no solution will ever be 100% secure, there are always users to contend with and as reports all over the trade press say, users are the weak link in any system. I think being within a cloud though, certain parameters can be controlled, such as timeouts etc, which can't be on a local machine. So if Joe was to have a bathroom break in Starbucks, leaving his laptop unattended, a timeout could ask him to log in again when he gets back, all controlled from the cloud. This is harder to do with a local machine with local data as users tend to make life as easy as possible. I guess what I am thinking is a more centralised security policy than the distributed ones that can exist with a mobile workforce.
Â
Regards
Warren
--
Warren
Free
Business Development Manager
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