Gartner Says Clouds Don't Mature until 2015

[Greg Pfister]

See http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=871113 .

Very coarse summary of their phases:

2007-11 - Pioneers - use by the technically aggressive

2010-13 - Market Consolidation -- too many players by then. Use by a
broader range of adopters. Ability to execute is key. (It wasn't to
the pioneers?)

2012-15+ - Critical Mass, Commoditization -- it gets normal and
boring. This is also when intracloud becomes widely supported.

Oh yes, and they decided to rename Cloud Computing. They call it
"service-enabled application platforms (SEAPs)".

I think their dates are optimistic, myself.

And I think the name is one of the most hideously ugly ever coined.
SEAP! SEAP! Yuck. Sounds like a sick ostrich chick. Why did they
bother? They still use "cloud" occasionally in the article.

Greg Pfister
http://perilsofparallel.blogspot.com/

[Ray Nugent]

When was the last time these guys were right about anything?

Ray

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From: Greg Pfister <greg.p...@gmail.com>
To: Cloud Computing <cloud-c...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Monday, February 2, 2009 8:26:18 PM
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Gartner Says Clouds Don't Mature until 2015

[Adwait Ullal]

But it doesn't matter since they have the ears of the C-level folks.

 

- Adwait

--
Adwait Ullal

w: http://www.adwait.com
p: (408) 898-2581
Rodney Dangerfield  - "My marriage is on the rocks again, yeah, my wife just broke up with her boyfriend."

[Ray Nugent]

Good Point

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From: Adwait Ullal <adwait...@gmail.com>
To: cloud-c...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Monday, February 2, 2009 9:23:55 PM
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Gartner Says Clouds Don't Mature until 2015

[R Chishty]

I kinda agree but they don't have the ear of the market forces!

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Date: Mon, 2 Feb 2009 21:23:55 -0800
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Gartner Says Clouds Don't Mature until 2015
From: adwait...@gmail.com
To: cloud-c...@googlegroups.com

---

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[Tim M. Crawford]

Gartner may seem a bit optimistic. However, if CC starts to gather steam quickly (as it appears to be doing), we could see similar results. Here's a model I had developed:

Trailblazers: 2-3 years (2009-2011)

Equilibrium: 3-6 years (2011-2014)

--- Plateau Reached ---

Market Consolidation: 5-7 years (2013-2015)

I completely agree that the terms need to change. SEAP doesn't seem like something that will stick...or is well defined. It just seems like a different, ambiguous term for Cloud Computing. This is part of the problem we're currently faced with. CC means different things to different people.

Tim

 

______________________________________
Tim M. Crawford
http://www.linkedin.com/in/timcrawford

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From: Greg Pfister <greg.p...@gmail.com>
To: Cloud Computing <cloud-c...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Monday, February 2, 2009 8:26:18 PM
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Gartner Says Clouds Don't Mature until 2015

[Ioan Raicu]

IMO, 2012 (+/- 1 year) will be when the Cloud successor will make its debut, whatever its called. I have called it Cloud 2.0 myself, but we'll see what the market will call it. The driving force for Cloud 2.0 will be standardization, easily supporting federation of clouds from multiple vendors, and competitive pricing to make Clouds financially attractive for any workloads, regardless of their elasticity needs (bursty vs. steady needs).

Cheers,
Ioan

-- 
===================================================
Ioan Raicu
Ph.D. Candidate
===================================================
Distributed Systems Laboratory
Computer Science Department
University of Chicago
1100 E. 58th Street, Ryerson Hall
Chicago, IL 60637
===================================================
Email: ira...@cs.uchicago.edu
Web:   http://www.cs.uchicago.edu/~iraicu
http://dev.globus.org/wiki/Incubator/Falkon
http://dsl-wiki.cs.uchicago.edu/index.php/Main_Page
===================================================
===================================================

[Miha Ahronovitz]

Greg, thanks for posting this. Being in High Performance Computing and grid computing for last 14 years, I have read maybe one report from Gartner worth remembering.

In HPC and Cloud Computing, Gartner and Forrester are consistenly besides the reality. They use interviews to extrapolate predictions, but they need to fine tune the research.  I have seen Forrester's on line presentation at IGT 2008 world Summit of Cloud Computing with analyst Charles Brett. He thinks HPC is going no-where, grid computing is less and less adopted. He thinks Cloud computing is nice but hard to attain, and coined the UMC, Ultra Modular Computing. This is cloud inside the Enterprise, which the only thing Forrester things it will survive.
http://video.new-app.com/customers/grid/IGT2008/Day1_part11/main_files/Default.htm#nopreload=1&event=1#event=1&autostart=1

There are  two analyst firms that dominate by far the HPC Cloud Computing concepts (and have the most reliable market predictions I have seen so far)

One is IDC. They are the ones who said the market $42 billion by 2012 and accounting for 9% of revenues in five key market segments. Earl Joseph is a lead analyst of HPC. Solid research and vision.

The second analyst firm  is Tabor Research. Dr. Christopher G. Willard formerly from IDC joined Tabor.  He is the best.  Debra Goldfarb, a major  HPC personality and Addison Snell, also formerly from IDC, complement Tobor's superb team.

Both these companies predicted the cloud computing NOW. IDC will risk their reputation if the number of $42B (bigger than the OS market) will not be reached.It will be exceded, and all who take advise now from Forrester and Gardner will miss the window of opportunity

Miha

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From: Ray Nugent <rnu...@yahoo.com>
To: cloud-c...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Monday, February 2, 2009 9:14:57 PM
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Gartner Says Clouds Don't Mature until 2015

[Forrest Carman]

Top-tier analyst opinions (Gartner, Forrester, IDC) are actually worth quite a lot. True, Mark Driver’s voice is one among many. But he does have >25 years experience in IT, including application development, so I wouldn’t immediately discount his thoughts just because you don’t agree with his timeframe.

 

I’m still chuckling about the SEAP comment, btw…

 

Cheers,

-Forrest

[tarry.singh]

Really. I'm glad you reacted to the el-cheapo attempt to revive the somehow-declared dead SOA [which I will respond to in my another BrightTALK talk on Burton Group's frustration on SOA] and so thought Gartner :"Umm..we gotta think of something, lets call it SEAP"

I'd rather call them CloudApps. This group is witness I am the inventor ot the term CloudApps and don't let anyone steal that from me ;-)

Anyways 2015 is pretty much in line with what I am expecting [with all the data that I have gathered as well]. There are too many socio-politico-economical shifts happening at once that it'll be at the doorstep faster than you can imagine.

Two words: Accelerated Commoditization means the arrival will be fast, quick and cheap.

So the SEAP is cheap but timing maybe right.

--
Kind Regards,

Tarry Singh
______________________________________________________________
Founder, Avastu: Research-Analysis-Ideation
"Do something with your ideas!"
http://www.avastu.com
Business Cell: +31630617633
Private Cell: +31629159400
LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/tarrysingh
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[Ajit Karunakaran]

Hey Tim,

 

That sounds interesting…

Any companies/technologies you’ve bracketed into these categories already?

 

Ajit Karunakaran

Business Development Director - SEA Region

 

+91 9821032582

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From: cloud-c...@googlegroups.com [mailto:cloud-c...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Tim M. Crawford

Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 11:38 AM
To: cloud-c...@googlegroups.com

[Jan Klincewicz]

An old industry friend of mine, Fritz Dressler,  was once (somewhat) quoted as saying :

"Predicting the future is easy .. It's understanding what's going on right now that's hard."

I always found that pretty true..

--
Cheers,
Jan

[Ray Nugent]

That would be about right, however, I think the drivers will be price reduction due to large scale, credible competition from the Service Provider players and certifications such as SAS-70. These are the two biggest barriers to wide spread enterprise participation right now.

my $0.02

Ray

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From: Ioan Raicu <ira...@cs.uchicago.edu>
To: cloud-c...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Monday, February 2, 2009 10:26:49 PM
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Gartner Says Clouds Don't Mature until 2015

[Ricky Ho]

Stages and Driving forces of Cloud adoption.

First stage: "ease of use and without significant application rewrite effort" is the most important for people to take the first step.  A lot of startups will jump in at this stage to reduce cost.  Large enterprise will have small projects to get their feet wet.

Second stage:  Security, Isolation and Auditing support is the most important force for large enterprise to consider serious usage.  Hybrid cloud support is important as no one will put everything into the cloud.  Application need to elastically grow and shrink across the data center and cloud boundary.  Distributed system management tools is also an important driving force at this stage.

Third stage:  We start seeing de-facto standards solidify.  They evolve from successful cloud providers an rubber-stamped by standard organizations.  And there are more OpenSource technologies entering the cloud.

Along the side of cloud evolution, we also see rapid evolution of SaaS.  Because of the low entry cost, we will see many startups providing domain specific SaaS offerings (desktop publishing, image processing, office-like tools, marketing survey, GPS data ...)  I expect existing large enterprise software company will have a little hard time transition their current business model to compete effectively for a while.  They will provide some SaaS offering but will never become their main revenue stream.

At the same time, meshup technology will grow rapidly to make the composition of various SaaS source extremely easy.  I expect a new DSL may be invented for SaaS integration.

Rgds,
Ricky

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From: Ioan Raicu <ira...@cs.uchicago.edu>
To: cloud-c...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Monday, February 2, 2009 10:26:49 PM

Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Gartner Says Clouds Don't Mature until 2015

[Rich Wellner]

Ioan Raicu wrote:

IMO, 2012 (+/- 1 year) will be when the Cloud successor will make its debut, whatever its called. I have called it Cloud 2.0 myself, but we'll see what the market will call it. The driving force for Cloud 2.0 will be standardization, easily supporting federation of clouds from multiple vendors, and competitive pricing to make Clouds financially attractive for any workloads, regardless of their elasticity needs (bursty vs. steady needs).

Having devoted a good chunk of my life to creating cloud (back when it was called grid) standards, I don't hold out much hope that standards will be the answer.  Rather I suspect that if cloud is successful broadly that vendors (like the one I work for) will pop up and fill the federation gap as a value-add.

rw2

p.s. Ioan, I have not forgotten I owe you a call!

[Tim M. Crawford]

Yes, from two perspectives (the customers and the providers). However, that's based on what's available today and how it could morph into a more digestible solution for customers. There are a number of really novel solutions today, but are challenged with getting significant traction from the masses. While there are some technical challenges, I don't believe technology is the largest hurdle as much as a process/ perspective issue.

Tim

 

______________________________________
Tim M. Crawford

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From: Ajit Karunakaran <aj...@gemstone.com>
To: cloud-c...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, February 3, 2009 7:04:18 AM

[Chris Haddad]

Hi Tarry,

 

Burton Group is not frustrated by SOA.   Our clients are experiencing the disconnect between hyped expectations, dreams of architectural nirvana, compared to realizing smaller tactical wins and experiencing significant influence hurdles.     However, we are flattered you think Burton Group is the tail wagging Gartner (though I would never make the same statement).   

 

I don’t find you listed as a reader of Burton Group’s research, and your experience with our opinion and in-depth research may be limited. To hear for yourself whether Burton Group’s opinion is accurate and valuable, tune into today’s webcast:

 

http://www.brighttalk.com/channels/search/burton%20group

 

 

To coin a term, ideally one would rigorously define the attributes and capabilities.    Burton Group is currently working on defining application architecture capabilities and attributes required to maximize value when moving applications to the Cloud.   What is your definition of ‘CloudApp’?   I would welcome the opportunity to compare notes in this forum or privately.

 

 

To hear more about our Cloud Application Architecture vision this year, join me in Atlanta at the IASA ITARC conference, in Santa Clara at SD West 2009, or San Diego at Catalyst 2009.

 

 

/Chris

Vice President, Application Platform and Data Management Strategies

http://apsblog.burtongroup.com    http://dmsblog.burtongroup.com

 

 

 

From: cloud-c...@googlegroups.com [mailto:cloud-c...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of tarry.singh
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 5:23 AM
To: cloud-c...@googlegroups.com
Subject: [ Cloud Computing ] Re: Gartner Says Clouds Don't Mature until 2015

 

Really. I'm glad you reacted to the el-cheapo attempt to revive the somehow-declared dead SOA [which I will respond to in my another BrightTALK talk on Burton Group's frustration on SOA] and so thought Gartner :"Umm..we gotta think of something, lets call it SEAP"