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Feb 5, 2012, 10:24:59 PM2/5/12
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    arthur garbayo <arthur...@gmail.com> Feb 05 06:13PM -0200  

    February 5, 2012 7:56 pm
    Germany: A Bric, or just stuck in a hard place?
     
    [image: Wolfgang Munchau]By Wolfgang Münchau
     
    Angela Merkel has just been to
    Beijing<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7b5870fa-4d63-11e1-b96c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1lW9spQiQ>,
    in a year when China is about to displace France as Germany’s largest
    trading partner. When that happens, it will be a symbolic moment. It will
    also encourage those currently posing the following question: should
    Germany detach itself from the eurozone mess and become a Bric – a
    mid-sized global economic power, like Brazil, Russia, India and
    China<http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/#axzz1lW7Q9CWx>,
    whose initials constitute the Bric acronym?
     
    I first heard the notion of Germany as a Bric from Ulrike Guerot of the
    European Council on Foreign Relations, who is vehemently opposed to the
    separatist anti-European tendencies in Germany. Probably the clearest
    expression of this idea came recently from Wolfgang
    Reitzle<http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/01/15/eurozone-linde-idINDEE80E07Z20120115>.
    The CEO of Linde <http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=de:LIN>,
    a German industrial group, said that Germany should consider leaving the
    eurozone. This might bring some short term pain, he acknowledged, but it
    would increase Germany’s competitiveness in the long term.
     
     
    Something which falls short of an outright endorsement of a Bric strategy
    is the call for Greece and other peripheral countries to leave the
    eurozone. Klaus-Peter Müller, chairman of the supervisory board of
    Commerzbank <http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=de:CBK>,
    recently advocated this. Keeping the eurozone together is clearly no longer
    the priority of Germany’s business and financial establishment. In the
    1990s, they were the monetary union’s strongest advocates.I have always
    found Germany’s obsession with competitiveness
    <http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7737b608-4c04-11e1-98dd-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1lW9spQiQ>to
    be one of the deep causes of the eurozone crisis. The active pursuit of
    large current account surpluses has contributed to the eurozone’s internal
    imbalances. For a country the size of Germany, it may be feasible – albeit
    misguided – to formulate policy this way. For a large economy like the
    eurozone, it is unsustainable.
     
    The establishment’s disillusion with their neighbours to the west and the
    south coincides with a rise in their esteem of the east. I was recently
    reminded of that change at a dinner in Berlin with a group of journalists,
    one of whom told me that young Berliners looked towards Moscow as the
    “coolest” city in Europe by far – apart from their own, of course. Warsaw,
    too, was high up in this perceived coolness scale, way ahead of London,
    Paris, or New York. Old Berlin was split between west and east. Young
    Berlin looks east. German business looks even further to the east.
     
    The sentiment of a Germany adrift is felt elsewhere in the eurozone. After
    the tragic capsize of a ship off the Italian coast, an Italian newspaper
    published a cartoon of the German chancellor in a lifeboat rowing away from
    Discordia, ignoring calls to come back on board. Even I think this is
    unfair to Ms Merkel. She may have committed serious policy errors in her
    crisis management, and will no doubt commit more in future. She is not
    preparing for a German departure from the eurozone. But if the Germans want
    to reposition themselves on the global economic map, the political system
    will find a way to accommodate this.
     
    We are essentially discussing a new variant of the “German question”. With
    unification, Germany has become too large to be an ordinary European state,
    yet not large enough to be a superpower. Poland’s foreign minister, Radoslaw
    Sikorski<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d29da7fc-19ee-11e1-b9d7-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1lW9spQiQ>,
    recently called for more German leadership in Europe. But on the few
    occasions when Germany takes a lead, is met with derision.
     
    Deep down, the Germans do not want to lead in Europe because they are not
    ready to pay the price for leadership. This is why it has been so important
    for the government to present a clearly defined upper ceiling for Germany’s
    maximum liability in the eurozone rescue operations. To its advocates, the
    Bric strategy offers a way out of this “awkward-size” dilemma.
     
    It is not going to work, of course. Germany draws much of its current
    strength from a devalued real exchange rate. This, in turn, is due to a
    combination of wage moderation and a fall in the nominal exchange rate
    against the dollar and other currencies, a result of the eurozone’s crisis
    mismanagement. A free-floating new D-Mark would eradicate the gains of the
    recent decade. Germany has also been one of the main beneficiaries of the
    single European market.
     
    If Germany were to follow Mr Reitzle’s into Bric-land, many companies,
    possibly even his own, would find it more attractive to relocate to the
    rump of the eurozone, which would benefit from a more attractive exchange
    rate. It would be the ultimate irony. The eastward-looking bric-layers will
    discover that there is simply no viable political and economic alternative.
    Germany is a very old and rich European country with a declining population
    – the total opposite of a Bric.
     
     
    --
     
    *Para ter mais informação acesse estes portais:
    www.desenvolvimentistas.com.br e http://www.joserobertoafonso.ecn.br/*

     

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