Christian Wolmar's June Newsletter - Christian Wolmar Newsletter

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Message from discussion Christian Wolmar's June Newsletter
Date: Tue, 7 Jun 2011 04:45:06 -0700 (PDT)
From: Christian Wolmar <christian.wol...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: christian-wolmar-newsletter@googlegroups.com
To: christian-wolmar-newsletter@googlegroups.com
Message-ID: <29503445.636.1307447106651.JavaMail.geo-discussion-forums@vbym22>
Subject: Christian Wolmar's June Newsletter
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Dear subscriber

=20

The long-waited McNulty report on the rail industry proved to be what I=20
expected, a damp squib which clearly had been through the civil service=20
wringer, then vetted by Philip Hammond. The remarkable thing is that=20
throughout the report it is clear that the extra costs in the railway have=
=20
been caused by privatisation and fragmentation, and yet McNulty ended up=20
recommending more of both.=20

 It was a thoroughly dishonest exercise which may yet rebound on the=20
government. Creating yet more bodies within the rail industry, supposedly i=
n=20
an effort to improve efficiency, is very likely to have the opposite effect=
.=20
In a couple of years time, when the sums don=E2=80=99t add up, and the rail=
 industry=20
will be desperately scrabbling around for cuts, there won=E2=80=99t be Labo=
ur to=20
blame, but then probably not Hammond, either, who will be long gone.=20

 McNulty, therefore, has dominated the past month and I wrote a piece for=
=20
The Times on the day it appeared, which attracted quite a lot of response=
=20
and letters. It=E2=80=99s on my website (as the Times has a paywall) here<h=
ttp://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/2011/05/fragmentation-is-the-problem-not-th=
e-solution/>

  The two new Rail columns cover, respectively, the way that there is alway=
s=20
a search for someone to blame when there are problems in the railway, here<=
http://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/2011/05/rail-669-stop-this-railway-blame-g=
ame/>,=20
 and the other looks at the obscure, but vital, area of project assessment,=
=20
here<http://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/2011/05/rail-670-project-assessment-i=
s-a-fiddle/>The next two=20
*Rail *are about McNulty and will be on the website within the next couple=
=20
of weeks.=20

 I have been writing a chapter on megaprojects for a book to be produced by=
=20
the Volvo Research & Educational Foundations.  It=E2=80=99s fascinating stu=
ff which=20
has made me reappraise the value of megaprojects, seeing both more of their=
=20
upside and their downside, though it=E2=80=99s still not changed my mind ab=
out HS2.=20

 Otherwise, I am spending most of my time desperately working on my history=
=20
of the US railways whose autumn deadline is looming. My Engines of War book=
=20
is being reissued as a trade paperback in the autumn, and also watch this=
=20
space, next month, for news about one of my out of print books, Down the=20
Tube, the story of the London Underground PPP. Even though the book was=20
published in 2003, it is still very relevant and the lessons of=20
overcomplexity and failed attempts at risk transfer have not been learnt. I=
=20
was speaking to a lawyer the other day, who told me that in the run up to=
=20
the PPP there were sometimes 40 or 50 people at a meeting lasting several=
=20
hours, all on =C2=A3300 or more per hour =E2=80=93 all for an unworkable co=
ntract that=20
lasted just 7.5 years. That=E2=80=99s why the book is worth reproducing. I =
hope that=20
by next month the book will be available as a download for Kindle via=20
Amazon, an exciting development. If it works, I will make other of my out o=
f=20
print books available in that way, too.=20

  Just to end this shorter than usual newsletter on a begging note: I am=20
raising money for the Railway Children with the 3 Peaks by rail walk on the=
=20
last weekend in June. It=E2=80=99s a great cause, and I am nowhere near my =
target.=20
Go to:=20
http://uk.virginmoneygiving.com/fundraiser-web/donate/indexerSearchCharityR=
esults.action

 I only ever do these things once a year at most, so please donate! Anyone=
=20
donating =C2=A350 can have a free copy of one of my books (those in print!)=
 or=20
DVDs. There=E2=80=99s a list on the website.  Just send me your address and=
 your=20
choice.=20

=20

Christian Wolmar

June 7 2011

=20

=20

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<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><FONT size=3D3><FONT fac=
e=3DCalibri>Dear subscriber<?xml:namespace prefix =3D o ns =3D "urn:schemas=
-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><o:p><FONT size=3D3 face=
=3DCalibri>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><FONT size=3D3><FONT fac=
e=3DCalibri>The long-waited McNulty report on the rail industry proved to b=
e what I expected, a damp squib which clearly had been through the civil se=
rvice wringer, then vetted by Philip Hammond. The remarkable thing is that =
throughout the report it is clear that the extra costs in the railway have =
been caused by privatisation and fragmentation, and yet McNulty ended up re=
commending more of both. <o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><FONT size=3D3><FONT fac=
e=3DCalibri><SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>It was a thoroug=
hly dishonest exercise which may yet rebound on the government. Creating ye=
t more bodies within the rail industry, supposedly in an effort to improve =
efficiency, is very likely to have the opposite effect. In a couple of year=
s time, when the sums don=E2=80=99t add up, and the rail industry will be d=
esperately scrabbling around for cuts, there won=E2=80=99t be Labour to bla=
me, but then probably not Hammond, either, who will be long gone. <o:p></o:=
p></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><FONT size=3D3><FONT fac=
e=3DCalibri><SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>McNulty, therefo=
re, has dominated the past month and I wrote a piece for The Times on the d=
ay it appeared, which attracted quite a lot of response and letters. It=E2=
=80=99s on my website (as the Times has a paywall) </FONT></FONT><A href=3D=
"http://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/2011/05/fragmentation-is-the-problem-not-=
the-solution/"><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D3 face=3DCalibri>here</FONT></A=
><o:p></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><FONT size=3D3><FONT fac=
e=3DCalibri><SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN><SPAN style=3D"m=
so-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>The two new Rail columns cover, respectively=
, the way that there is always a search for someone to blame when there are=
 problems in the railway, </FONT></FONT><A href=3D"http://www.christianwolm=
ar.co.uk/2011/05/rail-669-stop-this-railway-blame-game/"><FONT color=3D#000=
0ff size=3D3 face=3DCalibri>here</FONT></A><FONT size=3D3 face=3DCalibri>, =
<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>and the other looks at the o=
bscure, but vital, area of project assessment, </FONT><A href=3D"http://www=
.christianwolmar.co.uk/2011/05/rail-670-project-assessment-is-a-fiddle/"><F=
ONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D3 face=3DCalibri>here</FONT></A><FONT size=3D3><=
FONT face=3DCalibri> The next two <I style=3D"mso-bidi-font-style: normal">=
Rail </I>are about McNulty and will be on the website within the next coupl=
e of weeks. <o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><FONT size=3D3><FONT fac=
e=3DCalibri><SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>I have been writ=
ing a chapter on megaprojects for a book to be produced by the Volvo Resear=
ch &amp; Educational Foundations.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; <=
/SPAN>It=E2=80=99s fascinating stuff which has made me reappraise the value=
 of megaprojects, seeing both more of their upside and their downside, thou=
gh it=E2=80=99s still not changed my mind about HS2. <o:p></o:p></FONT></FO=
NT></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><FONT size=3D3><FONT fac=
e=3DCalibri><SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>Otherwise, I am =
spending most of my time desperately working on my history of the US railwa=
ys whose autumn deadline is looming. My Engines of War book is being reissu=
ed as a trade paperback in the autumn, and also watch this space, next mont=
h, for news about one of my out of print books, Down the Tube, the story of=
 the London Underground PPP. Even though the book was published in 2003, it=
 is still very relevant and the lessons of overcomplexity and failed attemp=
ts at risk transfer have not been learnt. I was speaking to a lawyer the ot=
her day, who told me that in the run up to the PPP there were sometimes 40 =
or 50 people at a meeting lasting several hours, all on =C2=A3300 or more p=
er hour =E2=80=93 all for an unworkable contract that lasted just 7.5 years=
. That=E2=80=99s why the book is worth reproducing. I hope that by next mon=
th the book will be available as a download for Kindle via Amazon, an excit=
ing development. If it works, I will make other of my out of print books av=
ailable in that way, too. <o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><FONT size=3D3><FONT fac=
e=3DCalibri><SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN><SPAN style=3D"m=
so-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>Just to end this shorter than usual newslett=
er on a begging note: I am raising money for the Railway Children with the =
3 Peaks by rail walk on the last weekend in June. It=E2=80=99s a great caus=
e, and I am nowhere near my target. Go to: </FONT></FONT><A href=3D"http://=
uk.virginmoneygiving.com/fundraiser-web/donate/indexerSearchCharityResults.=
action"><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D3 face=3DCalibri>http://uk.virginmoney=
giving.com/fundraiser-web/donate/indexerSearchCharityResults.action</FONT><=
/A><o:p></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><FONT size=3D3><FONT fac=
e=3DCalibri><SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>I only ever do t=
hese things once a year at most, so please donate! Anyone donating =C2=A350=
 can have a free copy of one of my books (those in print!) or DVDs. There=
=E2=80=99s a list on the website. <SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;<=
/SPAN>Just send me your address and your choice. <o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT><=
/P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><o:p><FONT size=3D3 face=
=3DCalibri>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><FONT size=3D3><FONT fac=
e=3DCalibri>Christian Wolmar<o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><FONT size=3D3><FONT fac=
e=3DCalibri>June 7 2011<o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><o:p><FONT size=3D3 face=
=3DCalibri>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN style=3D"mso-space=
run: yes"><FONT size=3D3 face=3DCalibri>&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><o:p></o:p></P>
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