Wed Nov 11 Meteorology for Chicago
Brett Crapser
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1120 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009
DISCUSSION...
303 AM CST
MAIN STORY OVER THE REST OF THE WEEK IS HOW PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WILL BE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS AS A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
ON TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOULD HAVE A
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ON TAP WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY
DESPITE THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AS SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH SOME
PASSING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS. THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPS AS WE GET INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED
TO BE FRIDAY AS EVEN BETTER SOUTHWESTERLY WAA KICKS IN WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND OR ABOVE 10C. SFC WINDS SHOULD BE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S. SOME CONCERN
OVER CLOUD COVER REMAINS AND HOW MUCH THAT WILL THWART TEMPS
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. CIRRUS SHIELD MAY BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK...BUT
THINK THAT WE`LL BE ON THE FRINGE OF IT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THUS IN THE WARMER AIR.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER
WISCONSIN AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILE APPEARS TO BE RATHER DRY...SO IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO SQUEEZE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS FROPA. A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS POST-FROPA...BUT IT APPEARS AS THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MIRROR EACH OTHER INTO SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW GETS CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN
FLOW. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHEN THIS LOW WILL LIFT UP INTO OUR
REGION AND GIVE US A HEFTIER SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIP.
HALBACH
&&
AVIATION...
1800 UTC TAFS...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER
OF THIS HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SLIGHT BACKING FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON FROM EFFECTS OF
LAKE BREEZE IN SUCH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. INVERSION AND
DECOUPLING OF WINDS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT MAINTAINED A DIRECTION AND SPEED
IN THE TAFS JUST FOR REFERENCE PURPOSES. FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT PICKS UP AGAIN TOMORROW AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE.
LENNING
&&
MARINE...
224 AM CST
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT THEN OFF INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRI AM. AS THE HIGH RETREATS AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOK FOR INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE...PARTICULARLY THURS NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE DUE
TO THE STABILITY ISSUES WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER
COOLER LAKE WATERS...HOWEVER CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL SET UP HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY...BUT WITH A WEAK HIGH
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY POST FRONTAL
GALES.
IZZI
&&
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
Cydrome Leader
can this stuff be lowercased? The 1970s are over.
dye
is that so it can be transmitted in 5-bit baudot code?
--Ken
--
Ken R. Dye an optimist is a guy |
Chicago, Illinois that has never had |
http://dye.datsun510.com/index.html much experience |
dye1146 at g mail dot com archy |
ro...@screamer.websmyths.org
> In article <hdfbbv$lrb$5...@reader1.panix.com>,
> Cydrome Leader <pres...@MUNGEpanix.com> wrote:
>>Brett Crapser <cmdr...@nospampharowtcom.invalid> wrote:
>>> AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
>>> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
>>> 1120 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009
>>
>>can this stuff be lowercased? The 1970s are over.
>
> is that so it can be transmitted in 5-bit baudot code?
I do believe that is the reason. It comes from whatever source in the NWB.
I would think they still have operational requirements for that reason.
Brett
dye
http://www.rtty.com/rtty_list.htm
--Ken
--
Ken R. Dye an optimist is a guy |
Chicago, Illinois that has never had |
http://dye.datsun510.com/index1.html much experience |
Cydrome Leader
THIS IS USENET, NOT A TELETYPE OR 9 PIN DOT MATRIX PRINTER. UPPERCASE
STUFF IS HARDER TO READ.
see, there is a big difference.