And I have to admit some of it is a bit beyond me.
Can someone suggest a simple introduction to information theory, how
probability comes into it, and how it relates to biology?
References
1. 3D"http://research.umbc.edu/~erill/4080/"
2. 3D"http://www-lmmb.ncifcrf.gov/~toms/paper/primer/"
3. 3D"http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/q-bio/pdf/0405/0405004v1.pdf"
4. 3D"http://www.bio.net/biomail/listinfo/bio"
Touchstone of Life: Molecular Information Cell Communication, and the Foundations of Life by Werner R Loewenstein. It gives a fairly broad overview, particularly from the biology perspective though it doesn't get into the probability theory you may be looking for.
Information Theory and Evolution by John Avery
The area is interesting, but functioning in it with high facility requires significant knowledge of chemistry, organic chemistry, biochemistry, molecular biology, evolution, physics, thermodynamics, probability theory, statistics, and naturally information theory. Tackle them one at a time with patience.