Dear colleagues,
Both last year and this year, Nicolas Titeux (Lippmann Institute,
Luxemburg) and I spent some time in Finland with Miska Luoto, Risto
Heikkinen and Lluis Brotons with money from the so called LapBiat
projects (Lapland Biosphere Atmosphere) to learn more about and actually
do some species distribution modelling and the impact of climate change.
Attached you will find this year's project description together with the
abstract of a recently submitted paper on the possible effect of climate
change on three invertebrate groups (grasshoppers, dragonflies and
butterflies) in Belgium. This might help to start a discussion on how to
proceed from here ...
All best!
Dirk Maes & Nicolas Titeux
======================================================================
Dear colleagues,
Please find hereafter the structure of WP1 contribution that should be
finalised in the framework of the activities of the 'biodiversity and
climate change' forum animated by the Belgian Biodiversity Platform.
1. Climatic projections in Europe, with a focus on Belgium
2. Species adaptability and vulnerability to climate change (e.g.
dispersal, demography, ecological plasticity, etc.)
3. Ecosystem adaptability and vulnerability to climate change (incl.
resistance/resilience issues)
4. Interactions between climate change and other biodiversity drivers
(specialist species endangered)
5. Climate change threats to biodiversity in Europe
6. How much is Belgian biodiversity likely to be affected by climate
change at the end of the Century?
7. Consequences for human well-being
Most of those points could be easily developed based on a review of
recent scientific literature and I'm currently working on it (a first
draft will be available for comments and discussion in early October).
However, as you know, detailed information for point 6 is rather limited
and scientific work should be performed before being able to have a
clear vision on species and ecosystems the more at risk in Belgium and
on the intensity of species turnover and extinction based on climatic
predictions.
To go out of the woods, I think we can produce rapidly a first report
with rather limited contents for point 6 (+ message addressed to funding
bodies that this gap should be filled urgently) and launch in parallel a
small working group in charge of gathering information and developing
predictive approaches. It could be done for a few taxonomic groups for
which detailed distribution data are available at the Belgian scale
(e.g. vascular plants, bryophytes?, butterflies, dragonflies,
grasshoppers?, fish, amphibians and birds). Work should be purely
scientific in a first step, with the objective to produce asap high
level scientific publications.
Three approaches have been proposed so far in this direction, based on
(i) bioclimatic classification (Alain Hambuckers), (ii) species
life-history traits (Sandrine Godefroid) and (iii) bioclimatic modelling
(Dirk Maes).
I would like to ask you if you would agree to be involved in this
'prediction' working group and be present at a discussion meeting to be
planned to exchange ideas and share responsibilities. In the
affirmative, I'll make this proposal in a few days to the whole forum
and ask who is interested to be involved in that working group.
Potential dates for a meeting are: October 13, 20, 21 and 24. Thanks to
let me know asap if you any preference for some of them?
Thank you very much in advance for your contribution. Very best regards,
Etienne Branquart
Belgian Biodiversity Platform
http://www.biodiversity.be <http://www.biodiversity.be/>
PS: Alain, Sandrine and Dirk, would you be so kind to prepare a short
description of your approach (from a few lines to maximum 2 pages) to be
sent to the forum at the end of this week?
Dit bericht en eventuele bijlagen geven enkel de visie van de schrijver weer en binden het INBO onder geen enkel beding, zolang dit bericht niet bevestigd is door een geldig ondertekend document. The views expressed in this message and any annex are purely those of the writer and may not be regarded as stating an official position of INBO, as long as the message is not confirmed by a duly signed document.
|
|
WorkDescriptionClimateChangeWorkingGroup.doc
110K
Download
|
