Perilous
Times and Frankenfood
Genetically modified crops are the key to human survival,
says UK's chief scientist
Sir John Beddington argues that moves to block Genetically
Modified crops on moral grounds are no longer sustainable
* Robin McKie
* The Observer, Sunday 23 January 2011
looted supermarket A child walks inside a looted supermarket in
Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Photograph: Oswaldo Rivas/Reuters
Moves to block cultivation of genetically modified crops in the
developing world can no longer be tolerated on ethical or moral
grounds, the government's chief scientist, Sir John Beddington,
has warned. He said the world faced "a perfect storm" of issues
that could lead to widespread food shortages and public unrest
over the next few decades. His warning comes in the wake of food
riots in north Africa and rising global concern about mounting
food prices.
"A number of very important factors are about to change our
world," said Beddington, an expert in population biology. "Its
population is rising by six million every month and will reach a
total of around 9,000 million by 2050. At the same time, it is
estimated that by 2030 more than 60% of the population will be
living in cities and will no longer be involved in growing crops
or raising domestic animals. And on top of that the world's
population is getting more prosperous and able to pay for more
food."
Beddington said these factors indicated that the world was going
to need 40% more food, 30% more water and 50% more energy by the
middle of the century – at a time when climate change was starting
to have serious environmental impacts on the planet, flooding
coastal plains, spreading deserts and raising temperatures. "We
could cut down tropical rain forests and plant crops on the
savannahs to grow more food, but that would leave us even more
vulnerable to the impact of global warming and climate change. We
needed these regions to help absorb carbon dioxide emissions,
after all."
Beddington said humanity had to face the fact that every means to
improve food production should now be employed, including
widespread use of new biotechnological techniques in farming. He
stressed that no harm should be inflicted on humans or the
environment. His remarks were made in advance of publication
tomorrow of a major report, "The Future of Food and Farming".
His office's report is a specific attempt to highlight moves that
could halt devastation of the planet. Crucially, the report will
be presented tomorrow not just to the Department of Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), but also to the Department for
International Development, which directs UK foreign aid.
Beddington said he would present details of his office's report in
Washington next month. He also hoped it would be debated at other
events, including the G8 and G20 summits.
He emphasised the role of modern biotechnological techniques,
including GM crops, in the future of global food production.
"There will be no silver bullet, but it is very hard to see how it
would be remotely sensible to justify not using new technologies
such as GM. Just look at the problems that the world faces: water
shortages and salination of existing water supplies, for example.
GM crops should be able to deal with that."
Such remarks will enrage many environmental groups, who believe it
is wrong for the west to impose a technology it has developed on
the third world. But Beddington was adamant about the benefits of
GM crop technology. "Around 30% of food is lost before it can be
harvested because it is eaten by pests that we never learnt how to
control. We cannot afford that kind of loss to continue. GM should
be able to solve that problem by creating pest-resistant strains,
for example. Of course, we will have to make sure these crops are
properly tested; that they work; that they don't harm people; and
that they don't harm the environment."
GM crops alone would not be sufficient to hold off widespread
starvation, he added. No single approach would guarantee food
security for humanity for the rest of the century. A widespread
approach, including the development of proper sustainability,
protecting fish stocks and changes to patterns of consumption, was
also critical, he said. "This report was set up to find out if we
can feed nine billion people sustainably, healthily and equitably.
We can, but it will take many different approaches to crack the
problem."
Timing was crucial. "In 2008 food prices rocketed to their highest
level for decades. People said it was just a one-off, but last
year what happened? Wheat prices saw their fastest ever increase.
The era of declining food prices is over and we have to face
that," he added.
Almost a billion people now suffer serious food shortages and face
starvation. "It is unimaginable that in the next 10 to 20 years
that there will not be a worsening of that problem unless we take
action now, and we have to include the widest possible range of
solutions."