Perilous
Times
EU treaty: Britain now faces a Europe that is becoming
hostile
Britain faces a wave of hostile legislation battered through the
European Union by a new "Euro-Plus" bloc dominated by France and
Germany as senior figures call for the British to be driven out of
Europe.
By Bruno Waterfield, Brussels
6:27PM GMT 10 Dec 2011
The Telegraph UK
David Cameron's refusal to unconditionally agree to a eurozone
"stability union" treaty has polarised relations between Britain
and EU at a time when the economic crisis has sharpened European
power struggles.
As attitudes harden, senior European politicians and officials are
warning that the Prime Minister's stand will have severe
consequences for Britain.
Martin Schulz, the German MEP who will become the president of the
European Parliament early next year, predicted that Britain could
be forced to quit the EU.
"I doubt in the long term whether Britain will stay in the EU," he
said.
"The EU can, if necessary, do without Britain, but Britain would
have more difficulty without the EU."
In a sign that Anglo-German relations are at a new low, the point
was echoed by Gunther Krichbaum, the chairman of the Bundestag's
powerful EU committee, a political ally of Angela Merkel.
"The Treaty of Lisbon explicitly opens the possibility of a
country's withdrawal," he said. "The British must now decide
whether they are for or against Europe."
Der Spiegel predicted that as British applause died away, Mr
Cameron would quickly be put to the test as the EU bit back. "He
has completely isolated his country on the European stage - and
many in his country applaud him for it. But he will soon have to
prove that London still has clout in the EU," the popular magazine
warned.
A headline in the establishment French newspaper Le Monde warned
that a "27-member Europe is finished" after Mr Cameron's veto of a
new EU treaty to fix the eurozone debt crisis.
The newspaper called the decision "a choice with major
consequences, that will bring about the emergence of a two-speed
Europe, from which the UK may be increasingly excluded by core
eurozone countries guided for better or for worse by Germany and
France,"
Le Figaro, the newspaper closest to Nicolas Sarkozy, trumpeted a
"new era of isolation" for Britain. Its website poll asking "does
the UK still have a place in Europe?" quickly attracted 40,000
respondents and 81 per cent answered "Non".
Elmar Brok, a senior German Christian Democrat MEP close to
Chancellor Merkel, said the EU "must now marginalise Britain, so
that the country comes to feel its loss of influence".
Britain will quickly face new challenges from monthly summits of
the Euro-Plus bloc, starting with meetings of the 17 eurozone
members and rising to councils of up to 25 as more countries join.
The summits - beginning early in 2012 - will be entirely closed to
Britain and will have an agenda far wider than the action needed
to enforce the fiscal rules that underpin the euro.
British officials are deeply concerned that the meetings will be
taking decisions on areas of economic policy that are enforceable
by the EU.
"A decision taken by the Euro-Plus summit is a fait accompli for
the EU. If the Euro-Plus decides that will be translated into an
EU decision via its inbuilt qualified majority," said a source.
"Britain won't have a chance to influence EU decisions on
economic, social and employment legislation that overrides its
national law."
A Franco-German letter, signed by the German Chancellor and French
President last week, will act as the programme of the new
Euro-Plus summits and makes chilling reading for Britain.
"We need to foster growth through greater competitiveness as well
as greater convergence of economic policies," it notes.
"To these aims, a new common legal framework should be established
to allowing for faster progress in specific areas such as
financial regulation, labour markets, convergence and
harmonisation of corporate tax base and creation of a financial
transaction tax."
European officials and diplomats have noted that the Euro-Plus,
with its inbuilt EU majority, will be able to effectively take
decisions on financial services.
"Cameron sank the treaty talks with a demand for protections for
the City of London. The resulting grouping will be a battering ram
to force through EU decisions, taken by QMV (qualified majority
voting). It's ironic really," said a diplomat.
Daniel Cohn-Bendit, the leader of the Green MEPs in the European
Parliament, which has "co-decision" powers over EU financial
services legislation, has called for an offensive against the
City.
"Now, we must put pressure on the British and force them, by
implementing tough regulations on financial markets, to decide if
they want out of the EU or if they want to stay inside," he told
Der Spiegel.
Britain's greatest hope is that referendums or tensions between
France and Germany will tear the new Euro-Plus grouping apart
before it can inflict serious damage on the economy.
Although a Euro-Plus intergovernmental treaty could agree to take
more notice of the European Commission, it cannot give the EU
executive more power to veto tax and spending plans.
Chancellor Merkel wanted eurozone "fiscal discipline" via treaty
change between all 27 countries because then the EU has the power
to automatically enforce and override national parliaments.
President Sarkozy preferred the inter-governmental Euro-Plus
approach for exactly the opposite reason, France does not want a
Frankfurt dominated EU overriding the Republic's fiscal
sovereignty. He won and the French victory will be a source of
serious Franco-German tension.
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the leader of Germany's Social Democrat
opposition, has attacked Ms Merkel for bowing to the French and
agreeing a "fiasco".
"Automatic sanctions have not been decided, other agreements will
be legally challenged. This is not the signal that Europe urgently
needed to give in the current situation," he said.
Growing popular hostility to the EU across Europe might come to
Britain's aid. Democratic obstacles to the Euro-Plus treaty are
beginning to materialise in Ireland, the Netherlands, Austria,
Romania and Denmark, while parliamentary opposition in Finland,
Latvia and the Czech Republic may also sink the deal.
Lucinda Creighton, the Irish Europe minister, admitted that it was
a "toss-up" as to whether a referendum would be held in Ireland,
which has rejected previous treaties and is suffering under a
savage EU-IMF imposed austerity programme. "I would say it's 50-50
and we will be looking at the detail over the next couple of
weeks," she said.