Scientists Predict Next Violent Solar Cycle
Pastor Dale Morgan
Apr 25, 6:15 PM EDT
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Scientists Predict Next Violent Solar Cycle*
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID
AP Science Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The violent peak of the next sunspot cycle is
expected in late 2011 or mid-2012 - potentially affecting airline
flights, communications satellites and electrical transmissions. But
forecasters can't agree on how intense it will be.
A 12-member panel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said
Wednesday it is evenly split over whether the peak will be 90 sunspots
or 140 sunspots.
The government's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., tracks
space weather and forecasts its changes, which can affect millions of
dollars worth of activities such as oil drilling, car navigation systems
and astronauts.
Half of the specialists predicted a moderately strong cycle of 140
sunspots expected to peak in October of 2011, while the rest called for
a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots peaking in August of 2012.
"We're hoping to achieve a consensus sometime in the next six to 12
months," said Douglas Biesecker, a space environment center scientist
who is chairman of the forecast panel.
An average solar cycle ranges from 75 to 155 sunspots.
During an active solar period, violent eruptions occur more often on the
Sun, the agency said. Solar flares and vast explosions, known as coronal
mass ejections, shoot highly charged matter toward Earth.
Making these predictions is important for many businesses, which have
been asking for a forecast for nearly a year, Biesecker said.
Just like coastal residents want a hurricane forecast as early as
possible, so do those affected by solar activity, said Joseph Kunches,
chief of forecast and analysis at the center, which is part of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space
Physics at the University of Colorado-Boulder, noted that more than $200
billion of satellites in space can be affected by changes in solar
radiation as the cycle rises and falls.
In addition, Baker said, other problems include:
-Airlines flying over the pole face loss of communications that could
force them to use a different, longer route at an added cost of as much
as $100,000 per flight.
-The Global Positioning System is immensely important to commerce and
can be disrupted by solar activity.
-Operating floating oil rigs in the ocean requires keeping them
positioned within a few inches to prevent damaging drilling gear. "They
have to know when GPS is going to be accurate."
-There is an increased radiation risk to humans in space.
-Currents can be induced in long electrical transmission lines, causing
blackouts.
In the past, such problems have been caused by solar superstorms, he said.
"Storms don't have to be so super any more" to cause problems, Baker
said, as more and more systems become susceptible to solar effects.
W. Dean Pesnell of NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory said the solar
storms also can heat the Earth's upper atmosphere, causing it to expand.
This increases drag on satellites, slowing them down. It also affects
the position of the space debris encircling the planet, and it is
essential to keep track of that debris for the safety of space flight.
The forecasters said the current solar cycle will probably end next
March, when Solar Cycle 24 will begin. That will mean Cycle 23 lasted 12
years, slightly longer than the usual 11-year cycle.
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On the Net:
NOAA Space Environment Center: http://www.sec.noaa.gov