The domino effect: Tunisia engulfed. Egypt in flames. Jordan and Yemen teetering. As the Arab world unravels, should the West be worried?

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Pastor Dale Morgan

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Feb 3, 2011, 1:36:04 AM2/3/11
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Perilous Times

The domino effect: Tunisia engulfed. Egypt in flames. Jordan and Yemen teetering. As the Arab world unravels, should the West be worried?


By John R Bradley
Last updated at 1:50 AM on 3rd February 2011
The Daily Mail UK

Egypt was still in utter turmoil last night, despite President Hosni Mubarak’s announcement that he will resign in September.

More than one ­million demonstrators were still on the streets - most of them calling for Mubarak to quit now.

More than a thousand miles further south, growing unrest in Yemen caused the country’s veteran president Ali ­Abdullah Saleh to announce he would not be seeking another term.
A region in crisis? Use our map and corresponding profiles below to chart the unfolding drama in the Arab world

A region in crisis? Use our map and corresponding profiles below to chart the unfolding drama in the Arab world

Clearly unnerved, he abandoned hopes of ­creating a ruling family dynasty, ­promising not to hand power to his son Ahmed.

Leader after leader in the Arab world has been toppled by one of the most astonishing displays of sustained people power ever witnessed.

It was all sparked by the so-called ­Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, where two weeks of spontaneous demon­strations last month resulted in the departure of President Ben Ali.

But if revolution can spread from ­Tunisia to Egypt and then to Yemen in a fortnight, where might it take hold next?

Saudi Arabia - ruled by its dynastical royal family - finds itself completely out of step with these calls for democracy.

The House of Saud is too rich and powerful to be swept away any time soon, but it’s terrified by what is happening.

Such unrest is spreading like wildfire through the region. That’s why King Abdullah of Jordan yesterday dismissed his unpopular government and made a lot of noise about reform. He can sense which way the winds are blowing. Yemen President promises to step down.

Soudi Arabia, Libya

Syria, Morocco

For countries like Britain and the U.S., the arrival of democracy in such dictatorships may sound like a good thing.

But in Arab countries where democracy has been introduced - however ­tentatively - it is usually the Islamists who come to power.

Democracy comes to Morocco: the Islamist PJD party increases its number of seats at each election.

Unrest: Violence spilled out onto the streets of Cairo, Egypt last night despite President Hosni Mubarak's announcement that he will resign in September. Demonstrators are calling for him to resign immediately

Unrest: Violence spilled out onto the streets of Cairo, Egypt last night despite President Hosni Mubarak's announcement that he will resign in September. Demonstrators are calling for him to resign immediately

Democracy comes to Bahrain: Islamist parties win most seats in the latest election.

Democracy comes to Gaza: the Islamist group, Hamas, takes power.

That’s why the Muslim Brotherhood, the main opposition group in Egypt, is looking confident.

It senses its time is coming.

People power: More than a million anti-government Egyptians marched through Cairo yesterday as the wave of unrest throughout the Arab world continues to gather pace

People power: More than a million anti-government Egyptians marched through Cairo yesterday as the wave of unrest throughout the Arab world continues to gather pace

So, paradoxically, this is why the pro-democracy U.S. has spent the past 30 years propping up dictatorships like Mubarak’s.

It’s also why the Americans will be so ­worried as they watch a whole generation of ageing Arab despots in danger.

Democracy may bring change, but it could well also bring their worst nightmare - an Islamist crescent spreading from Pakistan in the East to Morocco in the West, a pan-Arabian commonwealth where suddenly the word Islamist is no longer shorthand for terrorist, but describes government policy.
Winds of change: Democracy may bring change, but it could well also bring the West's worst nightmare - an Islamist crescent spreading from Pakistan in the East to Morocco in the West

Winds of change: Democracy may bring change, but it could well also bring the West's worst nightmare - an Islamist crescent spreading from Pakistan in the East to Morocco in the West
The domino effect: The riots in Tunisia (shown here) are indicative of a tide of unrest growing in the Arab world. But whilst it may bring democracy, it may also bring Islamists to power

The domino effect: The riots in Tunisia (shown here) are indicative of a tide of unrest growing in the Arab world. But whilst it may bring democracy, it may also bring Islamists to power

However, European and U.S. ­worries pale into insignificance compared with what politicians and military ­commanders in Israel must be thinking.

If democracy does come to Egypt, they know the Muslim Brotherhood will rip up the 1979 Egyptian-Israel peace treaty on their first day in power.

And that will hurl the troubled region into deeply dangerous instability.

    * John R. Bradley is author of Inside Egypt: The Land Of The Pharaohs On The Brink Of A Revolution.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1353088/Tunisia-protests-Egypt-riots-Jordan-teetering-Deadly-Arab-world-domino-effect.html#ixzz1CsJPbFNc

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