Massive waves of Tropical Cyclones Cause Greater and Greater Damage
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Perilous
Times and Climate Change
Massive waves of Tropical Cyclones Cause Greater and Greater
Damage
by Staff Writers
New Haven CT (SPX) Feb 06, 2012
Storm tracks and minimum pressure for a sample of storms. The
tracks show that storms are more frequent in the western Pacific.
The minimum pressure (hpa) or storm intensity is measured by their
color. Storm intensity is higher over the warm waters near the
Equator and lower over the cooler waters towards the poles.
Source: Mendelsohn, R., K. Emanuel, S. Chonabayashi, and L.
Bakkensen.. 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on Global Tropical
Cyclone Damage" Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/nclimate1357.
Tropical cyclones will cause $109 billion in damages by 2100,
according to Yale and MIT researchers in a paper published in
Nature Climate Change. That figure represents an increased
vulnerability from population and especially economic growth, as
well as the effects of climate change.
Greater vulnerability to cyclones is expected to increase global
tropical damage to $56 billion by 2100-double the current
damage-from the current rate of $26 billion per year if the
present climate remains stable.
Climate change is predicted to add another $53 billion of damages.
The damage caused by climate change is equal to 0.01 percent of
GDP in 2100.
The United States and China will be hardest hit, incurring $25
billion and $15 billion of the additional damages from climate
change, respectively, amounting to 75 percent of the global
damages caused by climate change. Small islands, especially in the
Caribbean, will also be hit hard, suffering the highest damages
per unit of GDP.
The research reveals that more intense storms will become more
frequent with climate change. "The biggest storms cause most of
the damage," said Robert Mendelsohn, the lead economist on the
project.
"With the present climate, almost 93 percent of tropical cyclone
damage is caused by only 10 percent of the storms. Warming will
increase the frequency of these high-intensity storms at least in
the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean basins, causing most of
the increase in damage."
The authors based their estimates on a future global population of
9 billion and an annual increase of approximately 3 percent in
gross world product until 2100. "More people making a lot more
income will put more capital in harm's way," he said.
Tropical cyclones today cause $26 billion in global damages, which
is 4 percent of gross world product. North America and East Asia
account for 88 percent of these damages, because these regions
have powerful storms and well-developed coastlines.
The future economic damage from tropical cyclones will be less
than $1 billion a year in Europe and South America because there
are few storms there, and the damage in Africa will be low
because, Mendelsohn said, there is "relatively little in harm's
way."
Damages in Asia and Central America are expected to grow rapidly
in concert with high economic growth. The Caribbean-Central
America region will have the highest damage per unit of gross
domestic product-37 percent.
"When you calculate damages as a fraction of GDP, island nations
are hit disproportionately hard," he said.
The paper, "The Impact of Climate Change on Global Tropical
Cyclone Damage," is available at www.nature.com. It used a
tropical cyclone integrated assessment model that was developed
with Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at MIT.
"The paper demonstrates how to integrate the atmospheric science
of tropical cyclones and economics," said Emanuel.
The tropical cyclone model is used in conjunction with climate
models to predict how the frequency, intensity and location of
tropical cyclones change in the seven ocean basins of the world.
The paths of 17,000 synthetic storms are followed until they
strike land.
The authors used historical data to estimate the damages caused by
the intensity of each cyclone and what was in harm's way. The
paper revealed that minimum barometric pressure predicts damages
more accurately than maximum wind speed.