Floods in Pakistan, drought in Russia and a global wake-up call
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Pastor Dale Morgan
Aug 16, 2010, 9:07:22 AM8/16/10
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Perilous Times and Climate Change
Floods in Pakistan, drought in Russia and a global wake-up call
It has been a summer of fire and water.
By Telegraph View
Published: 7:26AM BST 16 Aug 2010
Heavy rain and floods have devastated the poorest and least literate areas of the country, where extremists and separatist movements thrive
It has been a summer of fire and water. Russia has suffered the most intense heatwave in its history and yesterday implemented a ban on grain exports, which will last at least until the end of the year. Pakistan has been hit by its worst-ever natural disaster, as monsoon rains have burst the banks of its rivers. Both crises will put further pressure on food prices, which in turn carries the risk of political instability. Any government, however competent, would be rocked by what has happened around Moscow and along the Indus. When it is corrupt and inefficient, as in the Russian and Pakistani cases, the likelihood of civil unrest grows. That was clear from the last time grain prices rose rapidly, in 2007/2008, when food riots broke out in India and Egypt.
Sufficient wheat stocks and above-average harvests in the United States and Australia may largely offset Russia's temporary withdrawal from the international market. It is difficult to be as sanguine about Pakistan. The fecklessness of its president, Asif Ali Zardari, who remained in Britain while his country was drowning, illustrates the dire state of its governance. It is already a hotbed of terrorism. Food shortages resulting from the floods and the consequent rise in prices could push it further towards failed statehood. Somalia shows what that can mean for neighbouring countries and beyond.
The crises in Russia and Pakistan are a reminder that, for the last 20 years, the growth of the world's population has outstripped that of its agricultural output. Global warming, increased demand for meat, whose production is grain-intensive, the diversion of American stocks to distil the bio-fuel ethanol, and falling water tables in China, India and the US, the three biggest grain producers, are all formidable supply-side challenges. Perhaps genetic modification will do what the green revolution did between 1950 and 1990, but that has yet to be proved. In the meantime, measures can be taken to conserve the soil such as contour and terrace farming and planting windbreaks. And water can be saved through better irrigation systems, encouraging the sowing of less thirsty crops, and urban recycling.
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has sought to divert attention from his government's failings with stunts such as co-piloting a fire-fighting plane. Accused of incompetence, Pakistani officials say lamely that they are doing their best. The circumstances both countries face are exceptional. But they point to a dangerous, long-term imbalance between what the world can produce in terms of food and what its fast-growing population needs. They should serve as a wake-up call.
Floods in Pakistan, drought in Russia and a global wake-up call
It has been a summer of fire and water.
By Telegraph View
Published: 7:26AM BST 16 Aug 2010
Heavy rain and floods have devastated the poorest and least literate areas of the country, where extremists and separatist movements thrive
It has been a summer of fire and water. Russia has suffered the most intense heatwave in its history and yesterday implemented a ban on grain exports, which will last at least until the end of the year. Pakistan has been hit by its worst-ever natural disaster, as monsoon rains have burst the banks of its rivers. Both crises will put further pressure on food prices, which in turn carries the risk of political instability. Any government, however competent, would be rocked by what has happened around Moscow and along the Indus. When it is corrupt and inefficient, as in the Russian and Pakistani cases, the likelihood of civil unrest grows. That was clear from the last time grain prices rose rapidly, in 2007/2008, when food riots broke out in India and Egypt.
Sufficient wheat stocks and above-average harvests in the United States and Australia may largely offset Russia's temporary withdrawal from the international market. It is difficult to be as sanguine about Pakistan. The fecklessness of its president, Asif Ali Zardari, who remained in Britain while his country was drowning, illustrates the dire state of its governance. It is already a hotbed of terrorism. Food shortages resulting from the floods and the consequent rise in prices could push it further towards failed statehood. Somalia shows what that can mean for neighbouring countries and beyond.
The crises in Russia and Pakistan are a reminder that, for the last 20 years, the growth of the world's population has outstripped that of its agricultural output. Global warming, increased demand for meat, whose production is grain-intensive, the diversion of American stocks to distil the bio-fuel ethanol, and falling water tables in China, India and the US, the three biggest grain producers, are all formidable supply-side challenges. Perhaps genetic modification will do what the green revolution did between 1950 and 1990, but that has yet to be proved. In the meantime, measures can be taken to conserve the soil such as contour and terrace farming and planting windbreaks. And water can be saved through better irrigation systems, encouraging the sowing of less thirsty crops, and urban recycling.
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has sought to divert attention from his government's failings with stunts such as co-piloting a fire-fighting plane. Accused of incompetence, Pakistani officials say lamely that they are doing their best. The circumstances both countries face are exceptional. But they point to a dangerous, long-term imbalance between what the world can produce in terms of food and what its fast-growing population needs. They should serve as a wake-up call.
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