Signs In The
Sun, The Moon and The Stars
NASA says prepare for more intense solar storms
AFP
Earth dodges geomagnetic storm: scientist AFP – The sun shines
bright over the Ancient Observatory in Beijing. A powerful solar
eruption that triggered …
WASHINGTON (AFP) – A wave of charged plasma particles from a huge
solar eruption has glanced off the Earth's northern pole, lighting
up auroras and disrupting some radio communications, a NASA
scientist said.
But the Earth appears to have escaped a widespread geomagnetic
storm, with the effects confined to the northern latitudes,
possibly reaching down into Norway and Canada.
"There can be sporadic outages based on particular small-scale
events," said Dean Persnell, project scientist at NASA's Solar
Dynamics Observatory at Goddard Space Flight Center.
He told AFP the official forecast is "for generally quiet
conditions today, perhaps some minor storming tomorrow, but
nothing extraordinary."
The event began Tuesday at 0156 GMT with a spectacular solar
eruption in a sunspot the size of Jupiter that produced a Class X
flash -- the most powerful of all solar events.
The eruption blasted a torrent of charged plasma particles called
a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth at about 560 miles per
second (900 kilometers per second), the Solar Dynamics Observatory
reported.
A direct hit from a CME could trigger a huge geomagnetic storm as
incoming particles bounce off the Earth's geomagnetic field,
blacking out radio communications, interfering with GPS
navigational systems, in theory even causing power outages.
The China Meteorological Administration reported that the solar
flare caused "sudden ionospheric disturbances" in the atmosphere
above China and jammed shortwave radio communications in the
southern part of the country.
Anticipating the worst, the US National Weather Service's Space
Weather Prediction Service warned it was "the calm before the
storm."
"Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events
on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to
be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to
late ... February 17."
But Persnell said the spiraling beam of solar particles from
Tuesday's eruption was passing behind the Earth without making a
direct hit.
"In this case, it appears it will curve around and not hit us," he
said.
He said satellite data "shows that the CME is quieting down and so
there is not a whole lot left to it. So it's moved well behind us
by now," he said.
But he said solar activity is on the upswing, and more CMEs will
follow.
"We are seeing more and more sunspots as what we call solar cycle
24 is turning on," he said. "At the peak we might see several of
these CMEs a day coming off the sun."
"But they have only a five to ten percent chance of hitting us. We
have to be in exactly the right place for that piece of spiral to
come hit us. We'll see many more coming off the sun than we have
hitting us here on Earth."
The British Geological Survey (BGS) said, meanwhile, that the
solar storm would result in spectacular Northern Lights displays
starting Thursday.
One CME reached Earth on February 14, "sparking Valentine's Day
displays of the Northern Lights (aurora borealis) further south
than usual."
The office published geomagnetic records dating back to the
Victorian era which it hopes will help in planning for future
storms.
"Life increasingly depends on technologies that didn't exist when
the magnetic recordings began," said Alan Thomson, BGS head of
geomagnetism.
"Studying the records will tell us what we have to plan and
prepare for to make sure systems can resist solar storms," he
said.
A 2009 report by a panel of scientists assembled by NASA said that
a sustained and powerful solar flare outbreak could overwhelm
high-voltage transformers with electrical currents and
short-circuit energy grids.
The report, titled "Severe Space Weather Events -- Understanding
Societal and Economic Impacts" warned that such a catastrophic
event could cost the United States alone up to two trillion
dollars in repairs in the first year -- and it could take up to 10
years to fully recover.