Plagues,
Pestilences and Diseases
Swine flu has killed 338 in the UK since September
Swine flu cases are in the news in the UK. See the data to find
out where the outbreak is worst - and see how it compares to the
last pandemic
Swine flu graphic: w/c 27 Dec 2010 View larger picture Swine flu
cases in the UK - week ending 2 January 2011. Click image for full
graphic. Illustration: Paul Scruton for the Guardian
Swine flu cases seem to be on the decrease after GP consultation
figures, released by the Health Protection Agency, report a large
drop in numbers for another week.
Last week we reported on a rise in flu deaths as the government
confirmed that 338 in total have now died since September with an
overwhelming number linked to swine flu - of the 297 cases where
information was available, 92% of cases have been linked.
The UK GP consultation figures have seen a continuing decrease and
the HPA have stated that the levels are "equivalent to normal
seasonal influenza activity".The HPA also report that the highest
GP consultation figures have been highest in London and Northern
Ireland
We have the most local data available on the outbreak - collected
by GPs in their surgeries.
Produced by Nottingham University's Division of Primary Care the
figures show the rate of infections recorded in GPs' surgeries
across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. This is the
QSurveillance project - which is a unique record of cases
registered by GPs across England and Northern Ireland.
What it shows are rates of influenza recorded by GPs across the
country - of which the major strain this year is swine flu. As bad
as it is, it is not yet as serious as the pandemic of 2009 - in
which the Office for National Statistics records that 149 people
died directly of the disease (which excludes those who had it but
died of pneumonia, say).
The original data is on a PDF - and the HPA do not provide any
archive. So, this is the only place you can get it.
Julia Hippisley-Cox is Professor of epidemiology and a GP in
Nottingham and co-founder of Qsurveillance. She says of the data:
The majority of the analyses we report are 'directly measured'
counts rather than extrapolations, ie it is based directly on
aggregated patient data recorded on GP systems rather than
estimates. Since the coverage is over 20m patients and covers most
of England, Wales and NI, it's reasonable to use it to derive
national rates.
Of course, this doesn't cover people who don't go to see their GP
- but it does provide a good indication of the seriousness of the
outbreak.
Unfortunately Scotland and Wales have not updated their local
health board data since the last outbreak. When - and if - they
do, we will update this post, so make sure you follow us here -
and we will also update the England figures every week while this
outbreak lasts.