Swine flu has killed 338 in the UK since September

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Pastor Dale Morgan

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Feb 4, 2011, 3:56:24 PM2/4/11
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Plagues, Pestilences and Diseases

Swine flu has killed 338 in the UK since September


Swine flu cases are in the news in the UK. See the data to find out where the outbreak is worst - and see how it compares to the last pandemic


Swine flu graphic: w/c 27 Dec 2010 View larger picture Swine flu cases in the UK - week ending 2 January 2011. Click image for full graphic. Illustration: Paul Scruton for the Guardian

Swine flu cases seem to be on the decrease after GP consultation figures, released by the Health Protection Agency, report a large drop in numbers for another week.

Last week we reported on a rise in flu deaths as the government confirmed that 338 in total have now died since September with an overwhelming number linked to swine flu - of the 297 cases where information was available, 92% of cases have been linked.

The UK GP consultation figures have seen a continuing decrease and the HPA have stated that the levels are "equivalent to normal seasonal influenza activity".The HPA also report that the highest GP consultation figures have been highest in London and Northern Ireland

We have the most local data available on the outbreak - collected by GPs in their surgeries.

Produced by Nottingham University's Division of Primary Care the figures show the rate of infections recorded in GPs' surgeries across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. This is the QSurveillance project - which is a unique record of cases registered by GPs across England and Northern Ireland.

What it shows are rates of influenza recorded by GPs across the country - of which the major strain this year is swine flu. As bad as it is, it is not yet as serious as the pandemic of 2009 - in which the Office for National Statistics records that 149 people died directly of the disease (which excludes those who had it but died of pneumonia, say).

The original data is on a PDF - and the HPA do not provide any archive. So, this is the only place you can get it.

Julia Hippisley-Cox is Professor of epidemiology and a GP in Nottingham and co-founder of Qsurveillance. She says of the data:

    The majority of the analyses we report are 'directly measured' counts rather than extrapolations, ie it is based directly on aggregated patient data recorded on GP systems rather than estimates. Since the coverage is over 20m patients and covers most of England, Wales and NI, it's reasonable to use it to derive national rates.

Of course, this doesn't cover people who don't go to see their GP - but it does provide a good indication of the seriousness of the outbreak.

Unfortunately Scotland and Wales have not updated their local health board data since the last outbreak. When - and if - they do, we will update this post, so make sure you follow us here - and we will also update the England figures every week while this outbreak lasts.
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