Perilous Times
North African states at risk of being overrun by al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda is poised to overrun five states in North Africa and the
Middle East, creating terrorist safe havens from which the network can
launch attack on the West, Europe and the US have been warned.
By Praveen Swami, Diplomatic Editor
Published: 9:00PM BST 21 Oct 2010
North African states at risk of being overrun by al-Qaeda
Large swathes of Somalia are already under the control of al-Shabaab, a
Somali al-Qaeda affiliate Photo: REUTERS
Mauritania, Mali and Niger have seen a steady escalation of al-Qaeda
activity targeting Western aid workers and experts. Somalia, to their
east, has disintegrated in the face of Islamist assault. In Yemen,
across the Red Sea from Somalia, security forces have been waging a
losing battle against resurgent jihadist armies that have claimed the
lives of dozens of troops.
Amadou Marou, the President of Niger's National Consultative Council
has been in Europe with a grim message for governments. "Somalia got
away from us", he said, "and northern Mali is in the process of getting
away from us".
Mohamed Abdillahi Mohamed, Somalia's new Prime Minister, has also
called on the US and Europe to "step up to the plate". Aid to Somalia,
he said, "is not an option, it's a necessity. We are dealing with
al-Shabaab, who are extremists and seeking to take their war throughout
the world".
Al-Qaeda's regional affiliates have expanded dramatically throughout
this belt of states, exploiting the administrative weaknesses and
corruption of their governments.
Large swathes of Somalia are already under the control of al-Shabaab, a
Somali al-Qaeda affiliate, which is known to have hundreds of US and UK
citizens among its ranks. Western intelligence services say they have
evidence that those recruits are preparing for attacks on the West.
Last month, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, its north African branch,
kidnapped seven people, including five French citizens, from a uranium
mine in Niger. AQIM has demanded a ransom of £5 million and a rollback
on France's burka ban for the lives of the hostages Mauritania has been
engaged in pitched battles with AQIM, and the country's air force has
been bombing jihadist targets in northern Mali the region where British
tourist Edwin Dyer was executed by terrorists last year.
Mauritanian jihadists also murdered an American aid worker last year,
and earlier attacked Israel's embassy to the country.
Yemen, which is home to another al-Qaeda affiliate called al-Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula, has served as hub for several plots targeting
the West, often carried out by western citizens inspired by the
charismatic Islamist televangelist Anwar al-Awlaki.
"There's obviously a lot that needs doing in countries like Somalia",
says Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, an American counter-terrorism expert,
"but it isn't obvious how to do what needs doing".
Local efforts to address the problem have had little success. Amisom,
the African Union's 7,000-strong peacekeeping force in Somalia, has
been unable to restore government control over even the capital,
Mogadishu. Peacekeepers received no wages for six months last year.
Poor security conditions have made aid work all but impossible.
Experts say aid should be focused not just on upgrading regional
counter-terrorism forces, but also addressing the poverty and poor
governance that have helped al-Qaeda gain ground in the region.
Britain is a key member of Friends of Yemen, an international
consortium that has committed to pumping millions of pounds into the
country. But although Yemen has committed to economic reforms and
anti-corruption measures, there are still doubts about just how much
the aid has achieved on the ground.