Southeastern Arizona hit with wave of raging wildfires

[Pastor Dale Morgan]

Perilous Times and Climate Change

Southeastern Arizona hit with wave of raging wildfires

FELICIA FONSECA  Associated Press
 May 12, 2011

 FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. — While rain and snow fell in northern Arizona this week, firefighters were battling wind-whipped blazes in the southeastern part of the state that consumed dry grass, brush and trees.

The crisp vegetation, unrelenting winds and above-normal temperatures have led to fire restrictions in five of Arizona's six national forests and state lands. The Coronado, which has seen the majority of fire activity so far this year, is the only forest that has banned campfires altogether.

"All it takes is an ignition, a spark of any kind, and we can see a fire starting," said Heidi Schewel, a Coronado National Forest spokeswoman. "And it can happen in the grasses, it can happen in the pine needles, it can happen in the brush."

More than 460 wildfires have sparked in the state as of Tuesday, most of which are small, and all but one are attributed to human activity. Lightning is expected to be a bigger player in the next two months as the monsoon season arrives. Without that rain, land managers aren't expecting a reprieve from the conditions that favor wildfires anytime soon.

The situation was different last year, when an abundance of moisture delayed the wildfire season. The Flagstaff area didn't see a major wildfire until mid-June, but two followed shortly after that forced evacuations and burned thousands of acres.

"The story last year was 'we're nervous, we're nervous about northern Arizona,' but the state did a flip-flop," said Mary Zabinski, a fire information officer with the Southwest Coordination Center in Albuquerque, N.M.

This year, a La Nina weather pattern forced much of the precipitation to the far northern part of the country, leaving most of Arizona bone dry. Flagstaff is 3.5 inches below normal in precipitation for the year, and "the farther you go east and south, the worse it gets," said Nick Petro, science and operations officer with the National Weather Service in Flagstaff.

The Apache Sitgreaves National Forest and U.S. Bureau of Land Management are expected to join in the fire restrictions later this month. Some tribal lands also have restrictions on fires.

Of the more than 55,000 acres burned in the state this year, most of it has been in the Coronado National Forest in the southeastern corner of the state. The Horseshoe Two Fire is the biggest now burning in the forest at 13,300 acres with no structures lost or injuries reported.

Some 1,500 wildfires broke out around the state last year, burning 85,000 acres. Two-thirds of those fires were human-caused.

Red swaths on fire prediction maps cover southeastern Arizona and stretch across New Mexico and western Texas, indicating an above-normal fire season that's expected to last through August. The same prediction has been made for the middle portion of Arizona starting next month.

Northern Arizona appears less at risk than other parts of the state now, but a small change in the weather pattern pushing moisture farther north "would have a dramatic change for the northern Arizona fire season," said Chuck Maxwell, a predictive services meteorologist with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

"Last year was one of the weakest (wildfire) seasons that Arizona has seen in quite some time," he said. "By the end of the season here, I would expect to see two, three, four times more than we had last year. It's just a matter of time."

Weather forecasters expect a robust monsoon season.

Meanwhile, Schewel continues with her message of firefighter safety, and personal responsibility, along with reminders that fireworks are prohibited on forest land.

"We're still seeing all the fire starts, so there's room for improvement," she said.